NFL Draft 2015: Breaking Down Stock for 2nd-Tier Quarterbacks

The debate will rage on as to who should be the first quarterback off the board in the 2015 NFL draft. It's going to be either Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota.

Those in need at the most important position but not in a position to select either of them will have to look elsewhere. A scarcity of viable options on the free-agent market makes it important to examine the second tier of the 2015 draft's QB prospects.

UCLA star Brett Hundley is the consensus No. 3 behind Winston and Mariota, yet he may not hear his name called until later on in the second day of the draft. It hardly suggests Hundley is NFL-starter material, at least as a rookie.

Below is a closer look at Hundley's stock and that of a couple of other second-tier signal-callers who are making the leap to the pros.

Brett Hundley, UCLA

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There is tremendous upside in Hundley (6'3", 226 lbs) thanks to his mobility, size, arm talent and experience as a three-year starter. One big concern is his pocket presence, though, as he routinely took sacks in his college career and often saw ghosts and took off to run.

Hundley's high completion percentage of 69.1 in his final year at UCLA is also a bit deceiving. According to NFL.com's Lance Zierlein, 29 percent of Hundley's throws were behind the line of scrimmage.

An AFC area scout offered up the following take on Hundley within Zierlein's evaluation: "Someone will draft him, but I don't think he will ever be a starter," said the scout. "He can't read coverages and struggles to process. It is going to take a few years before he looks like a backup in my opinion. He has a long way to go."

Dane Brugler of CBSSports.com brings up a stat in which Hundley compares well with Mariota:

Passes often have to travel beyond the line of scrimmage in order to convert third downs, so at least Hundley has that going for him—a knack for moving the chains in critical situations.

And he's not backing down from the challenge of airing it out at the NFL Scouting Combine, something NFL Network's Ian Rapoport appreciated:

Hundley has strong leadership intangibles and all the physical tools to be a dynamic dual threat in the NFL. The problem is his lack of feel for the nuances of the position, which separates the best from the rest at quarterback.

Whether many of the simplified reads Hundley had in college will ultimately doom him in the pros remains to be seen.

Concerns like that plague a lot of spread-style QBs. Hundley has to be a student of the game and may be able to use his diminished draft position as motivation to prove doubters wrong.

Stock Watch: Late Round 2 to early Round 3

Bryce Petty, Baylor

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Spread offenses can lead to ridiculous numbers, which was the case for Petty during his time at Baylor.

Going through multiple progressions wasn't often necessary, as Petty exploited mismatches and leaned on a strong rushing attack to drive the nation's No. 1 scoring offense.

Bleacher Report draft expert Matt Miller was already thinking about moving Petty in behind Winston and Mariota on his quarterback big board:

This was even before Michigan Football revealed Petty studying up with new Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh and Winston prior to the combine:

Petty must demonstrate an ability to pick up pro-style concepts right away. Given the grit he showed playing through a back injury this last year, his reputed competitiveness and presumptive pro-style work with Harbaugh, Petty seems up to the task to at least put the work in.

But NFL throwing windows will be far tighter than the one Petty has grown accustomed to. He may be the quarterback most impacted by this phenomenon among the draft's second tier.

NFL.com's draft profile lists Petty at 6'3" and 230 pounds. His ability to create plays with his feet at that size should bode well for his NFL transition, and running a good 40-yard dash at the combine in Indianapolis can only help Petty's draft stock.

Stock Watch: Early to middle of Round 3

Garrett Grayson, Colorado State

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The best may be saved for last in this instance because Grayson has certain strengths that his other two more highly touted peers in Hundley and Petty don't.

NFL Network draft expert Daniel Jeremiah explains:

Coming from a relatively unheralded program makes the combine more important for someone like Grayson.

However, the Colorado State product won't work out in Indianapolis due to a hamstring injury, per Bleacher Report's Jason Cole:

Grayson will therefore have to be impressive during interviews and when he holds a pro day to showcase his arm talent. Although his arm isn't overpowering, the sound mechanics Grayson possesses allow him to maximize his velocity.

Chris Sprow of ESPN raised a concern about Grayson's throwing motion during the Senior Bowl:

That Grayson is able to maintain the poise in the pocket Jeremiah alludes to has to be an attractive trait for NFL teams looking for a bargain mid-round QB, though. The speed of the pro game will be something Grayson must adjust to, but his innate calm under pressure is a great intangible to have.

What stands out most about Grayson is his ball placement on downfield throws. While Hundley and Petty relied on frequent passes behind or near the line of scrimmage, Grayson was tasked with delivering the deep ball often—and doing it well.

The key for Grayson is to make his delivery more compact, something he's shown when he has to make quicker decisions. Even his longer passes come out relatively fast, and he is more precise on such throws than anyone this side of Winston or Mariota.

Player	Comp./Att.	Comp. %	Yards	YPA	TD/INT	Rating
Garrett Grayson, Colorado State	270/420	64.3	4,006	9.5	32/7	166.2
Brett Hundley, UCLA	271/392	69.1	3,155	8.0	22/5	152.7
Bryce Petty, Baylor	270/428	63.1	3,855	9.0	29/7	157.8

Hundley and Petty deserve hype for their athleticism and production, but Grayson may clip them all in the draft.

Stock Watch: Middle to late Round 2