Preview and Prediction for the Northern Trust Open at Riviera
Everyone join Tom Watson in snarling “Sneeeeeedeker.”
Brandt Snedeker shot an impressive 22-under to win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am by three strokes over Nick Watney.
"It was an emotional win for me today because it's been a long time coming," Snedeker said in an Associated Press story (h/t ESPN.com). "The last year-and-a-half has not been up to my standard."
And Snedeker will look to go back-to-back at Riviera in the Northern Trust Open.
In order to do so, he’ll have to handle defending champion Bubba Watson, FedEx Cup points leader Jimmy Walker and world No. 7 Sergio Garcia. That's no small feat.
There’s a lot to get to here, so let’s not waste any time. Let’s get to L.A. and see where this tournament takes us.
Where to Watch and Tournament Info
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Where
Riviera Country Club
7,349 yards, Par 71
What
Total Purse: $6,700,000
Winners Share: $1,206,000
FedEx Points to Winner: 500
When
Thursday-Friday
5-8 p.m. ET, Golf Channel
Saturday-Sunday
1-2:30 p.m., Golf Channel; 3-6 p.m., CBS
Biggest Storylines
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Can Dustin Johnson Parlay Pebble Beach Performance to Riviera?
Dustin Johnson missed the cut at Torrey Pines, and that was entirely acceptable. He hadn’t played in six months. Next thing we see he’s firing a 17-under 270 at Pebble Beach to finish T4 in just his second tournament back.
To quote Keanu Reeves in John Wick, “I’m thinking I’m back.”
"Second week back out playing and it keeps feeling better and it's getting close," he told Ryan Ballengee of Yahoo. "It's going to be really good here soon."
At Pebble, Johnson bombed his drives for an average of 313.6 yards and notched 1.368 strokes gained putting.
Johnson was runner-up in this event one year ago, and if his play stays at this level, there’s no stopping him from eventually winning a tournament for the eighth straight year—maybe at Riviera.
Sergio Garcia Makes First U.S. Start of 2015
Sergio Garcia is grouped into that unflattering fraternity of “best player never to have won a major.” For the top-tier players, he’s the elder statesman.
Garcia came so close a year ago, but nobody could stop the onslaught that was Rory McIlroy as he besieged the Open Championship.
That was last year, and now Garcia makes landfall at Riviera with a chance to rewrite his narrative. Bill Cooney of PGATour.com analyzed Garcia’s putting:
"In 2012 and 2013, Garcia's putting improved dramatically after years of struggles on the greens. In fact he rose all the way to ninth in strokes gained in 2013 at .612. Last season his progress on the greens took a hit, though, when he fell to 61st in strokes gained at .164, not to mention 162nd in putting from 10 feet and 126th on putts from 3 feet.
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Should Garcia return to that form of two years ago, his game could coalesce into something befitting of a champion.
Nick Watney Fresh Off Runner-Up Performance at Pebble Looks to Break Through
Watney was the one who had the best shot at Snedeker at Pebble Beach, but it was one of those deals where nobody was catching Snedeker. It took a record-setting effort to beat Snedeker, and the only one to do that was, yep, Snedeker.
"I thought Brandt handled himself really, really well," Watney said in an Associated Press story (h/t ESPN.com). "Maybe in trouble one time, but very solid. So that's what I need to be like next time."
Watney let the tournament slip away from him as he tallied three bogeys in a five-hole stretch, after opening the day with four straight birdies.
After missing the cut at the Phoenix Open, Watney has two straight top-10 finishes for a combined 26-under par.
The Favorites
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Bubba Watson
Bubba Watson was a tour de force at Riviera a year ago. He stormed the event and finished with the strongest weekend in tournament history.
It was a bogey-free Saturday and Sunday that saw him come from four strokes down after two rounds to then win by two over Johnson.
“They don't trick it up," Watson said of Riviera in the Los Angeles Times. "It just is what it is, and it's tough...This is where I'm just comfortable."
That spells trouble for someone like Johnson, who played well enough to win but not good enough to defeat Watson—two entirely different concepts at last year’s event.
"You know, when you shoot 14 under on the weekend...it's tough to beat that," said Johnson in the Los Angeles Times.
Brandt Snedeker
When Snedeker broke his own scoring record at Pebble Beach, he announced to the golfing world that he was back.
Last season was a forgettable year for Snedeker, a former FedEx Cup champion. His goal was simply to become relevant again in 2015. Winning in record fashion at Pebble Beach gives him World Golf Championship confidence.
“It's nice to be back in those tournaments," Snedeker said in an Associated Press story (h/t ESPN.com). "I can set my schedule a little bit. And all the hard work I've done the last year is paying off now. I know this is a great week, but I look forward to parlaying this week into more weeks coming up and keep this momentum going."
Snedeker’s putting has been strong. With 28 putts per round, he sits at 12th on tour. He’s also draining 95 percent of his putts from with five feet, which is good for eighth on tour. He’s hitting those putts that sustain momentum and stop the bleeding.
Dustin Johnson
Johnson can’t be ignored here. He likely would have won this event in 2014 were it not for Watson’s torrid 14-under weekend.
In Johnson’s third tournament back since a long layoff, his game is in championship form and far ahead of schedule from what many thought he’d be capable of.
He missed the cut at Torrey Pines and said in the New York Daily News, “It’s really close to good,” he said, attributing rust to the results. “I think the last two days normally I would be a least five- or six-under right now instead of even par, but I’m happy with where it’s at, just a little rust, that’s all.”
He’s sprayed some serious Rustoleum on his game, becoming one of the favorites and a player to watch at Riviera.
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The Dark Horses
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Hideki Matsuyama
Hideki Matsuyama makes his first start since missing the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open. That was a blight on what has been an impressive start to his 2015 season.
He has yet to shoot over par for an entire tournament in 2015. Even though he missed the cut at Torrey Pines, he shot even par.
Matsuyama already has two top fives in 2015. Ranking second on tour in ball striking and seventh in strokes gained tee-to-green make him a dark horse in any tournament.
Jim Furyk
Making just his second start of the year after finishing T7 in his 2015 debut at Pebble Beach, Furyk returns at Riviera.
He shot a final-round 74 that cost him several thousand dollars and some wounded pride. Furyk told Alex Miceli of Golfweek:
"I really kind of kept my nose down and really tried to focus on getting my game back in shape, and more than anything just get the ball in the hole. I hit the ball really well for (the) first 11 holes; I hit two bad shots and was 3-over par. The fact is I just didn't score and get the ball in the hole.
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Despite being ranked No. 6 in the world, Furyk hasn’t won a tournament since 2010. It's hard to believe, but the seven runner-up efforts in four years mean he’s there, just not finishing.
That could all change at Riviera.
“My game is a lot closer than what I thought coming out, to be honest with you,” Furyk said on Golfweek. “I need to really take a look at this round and kind of what happened and where it went wrong. It happens kind of quick on you, even though it's a 12‑hour round.”
Nick Watney
Maybe on another week when Snedeker wasn’t jacked out of his mind, Watney would win at Pebble Beach. Sometimes, you run into a player who will only beat himself.
That was the case for Watney.
If he puts that effort in his holster and doesn’t get discouraged by being so close (and if he can manage not to bogey three holes out of five), there’s every reason to think he can be in the thick of this tournament.
Prediction
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Winner: Jim Furyk
Here’s the deal: Furyk wasn’t supposed to play that well at Pebble Beach.
It was his first event since the Ryder Cup, and he had the 54-hole lead. He told Golfweek:
"I show up after three and a half months off, I don't expect to go out there. My mind was about as open as it's ever been. I had a bad practice week last week. I really was just trying to get my feet under me and get grounded and see where it took me. All of a sudden I get on a roll on Thursday and get on a roll yesterday and I wasn't shocked, but I was surprised.
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He hasn’t won in more than four years. It’s time to snap that streak.
Continued Progress: Dustin Johnson
Johnson has been impressive since his return from an extended leave of absence.
His game will continue to grow, and it won’t be any surprise to see him toward the top of the leaderboard like he was in 2014.
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