UFC Fight Night 60: Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions
UFC Fight Night 60 hits Broomfield, Colorado, on Saturday with a welterweight showcase main event.
Former UFC lightweight champion Benson Henderson comes in on short notice and moves up a weight class to take on rising welterweight prospect Brandon Thatch. Featherweights Max Holloway and Cole Miller meet in the co-main event for a fun 145-pound scrap.
There is most definitely some betting value on this fight card. But where is it? That is what I am here to identify for you.
Predicting fights straight up in 2015 has gotten off to a rough start. I have a mere 11-7 (61 percent) record through the first four events of the new year. This is a credit to some good matchmaking by Joe Silva and Sean Shelby, but it is also assisted by some early upsets.
The trend of close bouts will continue Saturday night.
The betting odds are provided to give you better insight into Saturday's event. With that said, let's take a look at the six-fight main card for UFC Fight Night 60.
Ray Borg (-750) vs. Chris Kelades (+525)
1 of 6
Ray Borg is the biggest favorite on the entire card at minus-750, and there is not a clear reason why.
Do I favor Borg? Yes, but Chris Kelades gave every reason in his UFC debut to believe he is a live dog in this fight. Being a plus-525 underdog seems out of place.
Kelades debuted last October, taking a decision over Patrick Holohan. Borg is just 1-1 inside the UFC, and his quick win over Shane Howell may leave some overvaluing where he is at in his MMA career.
This fight will be competitive and go to the judges' scorecards. It's worth taking a shot on Kelades at these odds. He's not out of his depth, and even if he is merely competitive heading into the decision, he has a chance to nab the fight via bad judging.
I'm taking Borg straight up, but hitting up Kelades on the books.
Prediction: Borg, Decision
The Play: Take a flier on Kelades
Michel Prazeres (+135) vs. Kevin Lee (-155)
2 of 6
Kevin Lee is just 22 years old. He has a long career ahead of him and could be one of the better prospects in the UFC right now. He is also the slight favorite heading into Saturday.
If Lee can keep the fight standing, it's his fight to lose. Prazeres is not fluid on his feet and will be at a significant reach disadvantage. However, should this fight become a grappling exchange, there is definitely value on Prazeres.
And I'm taking it.
It is hard for me to get behind a prospect who is so young in the UFC. Slip-ups happen, and Lee is still developing into a better fighter. Prazeres can exploit and control him on the canvas. I'm not confident enough to throw the bank at Prazeres, but I like him enough to recommend taking a small shot.
Prediction: Prazeres, Submission, Round 2
The Play: A small play on Prazeres
Dan Kelly (+155) vs. Patrick Walsh (-175)
3 of 6
Let's keep the underdog train rolling in the third fight.
Grapplers Dan Kelly and Patrick Walsh meet, and I am side with Kelly's superior grappling in this fight.
Kelly is an Olympic-caliber judo player. While he is 37, this isn't a fight against a top-tier opponent. Walsh is still developing his striking to go along with his wrestling. Kelly will have to watch out for Walsh's power, but in tight his judo will put Walsh on his back.
Walsh will have a difficult time winning this fight from his back. And I will go out on a limb to say that Kelly finishes Walsh early.
If you are supremely confident in Walsh, then by all means play him here. There is value on him at just minus-175, but I like Kelly and his underdog value a bit more.
Prediction: Kelly, Submission, Round 1
The Play: Kelly
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Neil Magny (-600) vs. Kiichi Kunimoto (+450)
4 of 6
Neil Magny is on a roll in the UFC after a 5-0 record in 2014. He starts 2015 with a favorable matchup over another fighter on a hot streak. Kiichi Kunimoto is 2-0 in the UFC after upsetting Daniel Sarafian and Patrick Walsh.
Magny's range and striking will wilt Kunimoto in this fight. And his grappling will be good enough to either keep this fight standing or allow him to survive on the mat. I doubt Magny will get too offensive with his wrestling in this fight.
Eventually, the accumulation will be enough for Magny to earn the stoppage. Kunimoto, at plus-450, is an enticing play, as Magny is not quite an elite fighter, but I don't believe in the Japanese standout enough to take a shot on him at the given odds.
This fight is just too favorable for Magny.
Prediction: Magny, TKO, Round 3
The Play: No value here
Max Holloway (-400) vs. Cole Miller (+325)
5 of 6
Here is a great striker vs. grappler matchup. Holloway is a better striker than Miller, but his ground game is sometimes taken too lightly. And vice versa for Miller. This makes the fight fun no matter where it takes place.
I'm a little surprised by the odds on Miller. There is a lot of value here.
Holloway will score points with his striking because Miller gets drawn into exciting scraps more often than not. It will put him at a disadvantage against a volume striker like Holloway who has looked exceptional since losing to Conor McGregor.
While I take Holloway straight up, I would be foolish not to take a flier on Miller. He is a quality finisher on the mat, where Holloway is weakest. There is a good chance Miller catches him with a submission. It's worth a play. And the odds are likely even better with a prop bet on a submission finish.
Prediction: Holloway, Decision
The Play: Take a shot on Miller
Benson Henderson (-105) vs. Brandon Thatch (-115)
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This is an underrated fight and one of the most intriguing fights in the early going of the year, featuring a legitimate, rising prospect against a former champion who is moving up in weight on short notice. And their styles clash beautifully as well.
If Henderson had a full camp, I would be more inclined to believe he could take Thatch the distance and in turn expose his lack of experience inside the Octagon. However, that's not the case. While cardio has never been an issue for Henderson, he still is coming in on short notice just a few weeks removed from a three-round fight with Donald Cerrone.
Thatch, on the other hand, has had a full training camp, knowing he is the main event.
Henderson will have to rely on his wrestling and jiu-jitsu against the lanky Thatch. If he can take him down easily, it may be a long night for the highly touted prospect.
This is a bad matchup for Henderson at this point. A size and power disadvantage will rear their heads early as Thatch connects on Henderson. He will hurt and finish the former champion.
As far as the odds go, you should go with whomever you are more comfortable with. If you truly feel Henderson is taking this fight, then there is solid value in taking him at minus-105. I just feel more comfortable recommending Thatch.
Look for another statement performance from Thatch in the Valentine's Day main event.
Prediction: Thatch, TKO, Round 2
The Play: Side with Thatch
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