NFL Mock Draft 2015: Top Prospects and Toughest Projections in Round 1

The NFL draft is essentially a risk versus reward assessment. It's card-counting during blackjack. It's trying to determine how a player's talent stacks up against the inherent risks he possesses and where that places his value on a draft board. 

Trying to determine the real value of a player is a scientific pursuit, although as any fan of the Cleveland Browns or Oakland Raiders can tell you, it's hardly an exact science.

But we're all trying to crack the code, and I'm no exception. It's fun to try to match talents to team needs, and so in that pursuit I've crafted another mock draft.

Below, you'll find my updated projections for the first round, along with a more in-depth look at three prospects who are difficult to project in the first round based on several factors. They also happen to be three of the most talented and fascinating prospects in the entire draft. 

Pick	Team	Player
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon Ducks
2	Tennessee Titans	Leonard Williams, DT, USC
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska
4	Oakland Raiders	Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
5	Washington	Vic Beasley, DE, Clemson
6	New York Jets	Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
7	Chicago Bears	Shane Ray, DE, Missouri
8	Atlanta Falcons	Dante Fowler Jr., DE, Florida
9	New York Giants	Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
10	St. Louis Rams	Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
11	Minnesota Vikings	La'el Collins, OT, LSU
12	Cleveland Browns	DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
13	New Orleans Saints	Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
14	Miami Dolphins	Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
15	San Francisco 49ers	Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
16	Houston Texans	T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
17	San Diego Chargers	Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
18	Kansas City Chiefs	Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
19	Cleveland Browns	Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
20	Philadelphia Eagles	Landon Collins, S, Alabama
21	Cincinnati Bengals	Bud Dupree, OLB, Kentucky
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	Gerod Holliman, S, Louisville
23	Detroit Lions	Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
24	Arizona Cardinals	Eli Harold, DE, Virginia
25	Carolina Panthers	Sammie Coates, WR, Auburn
26	Baltimore Ravens	Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
27	Dallas Cowboys	Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
28	Denver Broncos	Cameron Erving, OT, Florida State
29	Indianapolis Colts	Shaq Thompson, OLB, Washington
30	Green Bay Packers	Benardrick McKinney, MLB, Mississippi State
31	Seattle Seahawks	Devin Funchess, WR/TE, Michigan
32	New England Patriots	Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State

Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State

Projecting Winston's professional career in a vacuum isn't necessarily difficult. He's the most talented traditional pocket passer in this draft class by a wide margin and one of the top talents in this draft, period. He's demonstrated a clutch gene in his time at Florida State and has all the tools you would want in a quarterback.

There's a reason Mel Kiper and Todd McShay of ESPN, Matt Miller of Bleacher Report and Dane Brugler of CBS Sports, among others, all have him going No. 1 overall in their current mock drafts.

But Winston has legitimate off-field concerns and some maturity issues that cloud his status. Any team that drafts him is selecting him to be the face of the franchise, a leader and a performer at the most important position on the field, so any concerns about how he might handle the NFL lifestyle and the perks that come with it have to be weighed heavily. 

For those reasons alone, he's no lock to go No. 1 overall. 

He is probably a lock to go in the top 10 of this draft, however. You could make a case that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, Washington (if it was willing to trade Robert Griffin III, Winston would be a far better fit for Jay Gruden's system), New York Jets and even the St. Louis Rams would draft him. And a team like the Houston Texans might be willing to trade into the top 10 if Winston slides past the first few picks as well.

Marcus Peters, CB, Washington

You only need to follow a few draft experts and NFL writers on Twitter to see just how much Marcus Peters' stock might fluctuate between teams. His talent is unmistakable, but he has huge character concerns. Here's a sampling of what is being said about him.

There's this, from Miller:

Or this, from Brugler:

Peter Schrager of Fox Sports offers a third perspective:

No matter what certain players or even certain coaches say, you can bet that NFL teams aren't just going to ignore that Peters was kicked off Washington's team after having multiple confrontations with the coaching staff this season. That sort of thing doesn't just get brushed under the rug.

And it's why Peters could go anywhere from the top 10 to somewhere near the bottom of the first round. The team that drafts him will be sure he fits its system and can work with the coaches in place, and it probably would like to have veteran leadership in the secondary to rein Peters in if he has an outburst in the locker room or on the sideline. 

A lot of teams will put up with a lot for players as talented as Peters. Others probably aren't interested. And that's what makes him one of the more interesting players to follow in the first round.

Shaq Thompson, LB/RB, Washington

Is Shaq Thompson a jack of all trades and a master of none?

He excelled at both linebacker and running back for the Huskies and even played some safety. He's an outstanding athlete and a great football player who is versatile enough to play a number of positions. 

Just consider this, from Emily Kaplan of MMQB.com:

"

In his freshman year at Washington, coaches created a hybrid safety/linebacker position just to get him on the field. Over the next three years, he played five other positions. His mere presence was a weapon. 'We put him at personal protector, not only because he’d be good at it,' says Huskies coach Chris Petersen, 'but also, teams would be so worried about us snapping the ball to Shaq that they backed off on trying to block our punts.'

That’s the paradox of Shaq Thompson: Nobody knows exactly what he is. They just know they want him.

"

Ah, but at what point in the draft will a team want him?

More than likely, Thompson will be an outside linebacker in the NFL in a 4-3 scheme, a position that generally isn't valued as highly as quarterback, offensive tackle, wide receiver, defensive end and cornerback—the positions that teams love to address in the first round. It's possible Thompson could drop near the bottom of the first round.

It's also possible he could be a top-10 pick given his outstanding athleticism, work ethic and versatility. A team could draw up a plan to use him in a new, unique role and snatch him off the board immediately. It's hard to say, which makes Thompson one of the truly intriguing players in this draft class.