Top 2015 NBA Draft Prospects Stock Report for Final Stretch of Conference Play
For many 2015 NBA draft prospects looking to make a statement, the window of opportunity is beginning to close with conference play nearing a conclusion.
A few of them have stepped up at just the right time. Providence's Kris Dunn is one. His consistent, monster two-way production has made it tough to look away. Another one of our risers has had the same effect, only his damage has been done overseas.
Meanwhile, there are a number of other players whose grips seem to loosen by the week. One of them might have made the biggest drop of any prospect in the country.
Either way, the following are prospects whose recent play should have moved the draft-stock needle—for better or worse.
Kris Dunn, Providence, 6'3", PG, Sophomore
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Kris Dunn has entered must-watch territory following what's been an eye-opening start to 2015.
His story is as good as anyone's—Dunn was a former top-shelf recruit before missing time from shoulder surgeries in his first two Providence seasons. The second cut his true sophomore year short to just four total games.
But he's bounced back as one of the premier point guards in college hoops. And given his strong 6'3", 205-pound frame, exceptional athleticism and dynamic playmaking ability, he scores quite high on the NBA eye test.
Dunn leads the country in assist percentage, according to Sports-Reference.com, averaging 7.5 per game in 33.3 minutes. He's an excellent passer out of pick-and-rolls, whether he's wrapping it around clutter, bouncing it through or lofting it over the top. Dunn's presence on the glass (six rebounds per game) also allows him to initiate and push the break, which leads to open looks for teammates in transition, where 37.6 percent of his assists originate, per Hoop-Math.
As a scorer, Dunn is at his best attacking the rim, though it's his shotmaking ability that might hold the most NBA value. Step-backs, pull-ups, off-balance floaters, tough finishes in the lane—every game we see Dunn knock down a few contested looks inside the arc.
And while CollegeBasketballTalk's Rob Dauster points out "perimeter shooting has been a knock on him his entire career," the jumper has finally started working, as Dunn has made 12-of-25 three-pointers over Providence's last nine games.
He's also emerged as one of the more physical defensive guards in the country. Dunn's strength and quickness have translated to 2.6 steals a game. He picked up six in a win over Georgetown on Wednesday.
Dunn doesn't come without some questions. He turns the ball over a whopping 4.3 times per game and shoots 66.7 percent from the line. Up until recently, he hadn't been much of a threat from downtown, either. Dunn's shoulder history could also trigger some concern.
But it's become impossible to ignore Dunn's resurgence, which has helped remind us just how talented he really is. If Dunn can continue slowly erasing the fears tied to his red flags and weaknesses, his production and lottery upside could propel him up draft boards around the league.
Coach Ed Cooley talked about Dunn's recent play to NCAA.com's Stephen Sellner:
"Kris has a long way to go. He’s just scratching the surface and in doing so, he’s becoming one of the best point guards if not in the Big East, then in the country because I don’t know who’s playing as well as he is over the last three weeks.
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Melo Trimble, Maryland, 6'2", PG, Freshman
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The Melo Trimble buzz has started to fade in the midst of what's been a rough stretch for Maryland, losers of three of its last five.
Trimble has had some terrific moments recently against schools like Penn State and Northwestern. But he hasn't fared too well against the higher-quality competition.
Trimble shot 0-of-8 from the floor in a loss to D'Angelo Russell and Shannon Scott's Ohio State on January 29. The Buckeyes guards continually went over the top of screens, taking away Trimble's jumper and enticing him into the lane, where the below-the-rim 6'2" spark plug has trouble with size and length (43.8 percent on two-pointers, 31 percent on two-point jumpers, per Hoop-Math).
Trimble was quiet in a loss to Indiana a week earlier as well, having racked up just 10 points and an assist in a 19-point beatdown.
He recently bounced back to score 20 against Iowa on Sunday, though most of those points came when his team was getting crushed. And it marked the fifth time in six games he failed to finish with more dimes than turnovers.
Trimble just hasn't been able to find that proper balance between scoring and playmaking. Though he's averaging 15.4 points a game, Trimble shoots 41.4 percent from the floor and sports a minus-1.29 pure point rating (three assists per game, 2.5 turnovers), according to RealGM.com.
Though slick, skilled and potent offensively, Trimble's limited athletic ability and questionable facilitating instincts diminish his NBA upside. Staying in school to build up his point guard IQ should be his course of action.
Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky, 6'11", PF/C, Freshman
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It took a few months, but Karl-Anthony Towns picked a good time to start playing his best ball of the season.
Fresh off a 19-point performance at Florida on Saturday, Towns came up huge in Kentucky's tight win over LSU on Tuesday night. After nailing a go-ahead jump hook with less than two minutes left, Towns snagged a crucial offensive rebound—his seventh of the night—on Kentucky's final possession.
He even drilled a step-back jumper to end the Tigers' 16-0 second-half run.
Towns finished with 12 points (his fourth consecutive double-digit scoring game), 13 boards (second double-double in last four games), two blocks and a number of shot-altering challenges inside.
Over the past few games, he's showcased everything from post scoring and shooting to passing, rebounding and tremendous rim protection.
ESPN's Jeff Goodman tweeted he had an "NBA guy" tell him that "there isn't as much disparity between [Jahlil] Okafor and Karl-Anthony Towns as people think."
While Okafor will go down as the safer 2015 option, there's no hiding the fact that Towns has the higher ceiling. No other prospect in the country offers greater potential versatility. The only question is whether he'll put it all together.
And this recent hot streak has naturally helped strengthen his credibility.
Dakari Johnson, Kentucky, 7'0", C, Sophomore
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Dakari Johnson's role has quietly been reduced in coach John Calipari's deep rotation. After receiving just 11 minutes on February 3 against Georgia, Johnson played only nine minutes against Florida on Saturday, when he finished with two turnovers and no points.
Johnson came back this year in better condition, and at times this season, it's showed. However, not much has changed with regard to his skill set, which is still fairly simplistic. Johnson hasn't shown much offensively other than an over-the-shoulder hook shot.
His footwork is also a bit clumsy and awkward. He got called for two traveling violations against Florida that highlighted his lack of comfort putting the ball on the floor.
Johnson is what he is: a giant 7-footer who runs the floor and cleans up around the rim. With a ceiling that likely tops out around backup-center heights, he'll have a crack at the first round in 2015. Just don't expect teams to start knocking down his door.
Tyus Jones, Duke, 6'1", PG, Freshman
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Tyus Jones has taken his game to another level, having racked up 30 assists to just six turnovers over Duke's last five outings.
He's fresh off his most complete performance of the year Tuesday against Florida State, a team he carved up from just about every angle. Pick-and-rolls, drive-and-kicks, fast breaks—he even threw one 30-foot bounce pass from half court to Quinn Cook for a no-dribble layup.
Jones' facilitating instincts and passing accuracy are terrific, as is his vision, particularly in transition. In fact, a whopping 45.7 percent of his assists come within the first 10 seconds of the shot clock, per Hoop-Math. Jones is at his best pushing the ball down the floor and finding his teammates before the defense can set.
Prior to the Florida State game, Jones' 17 points and four assists helped hand Virginia its first loss of the year. With just over two minutes remaining, he threw a beautiful dime to Justise Winslow, who tied the game. Jones then sunk the Cavaliers with a killer pull-up three in the final 10 seconds.
He has now made at least two triples in four straight games and has his long-range percentage up to a solid 39.5 percent.
Jones' lack of athleticism and length have really hurt him at the defensive end, as well as inside the arc on offense, where he shoots 45.8 percent. But he really knows how to set the table, and he's sharp enough on the perimeter to make defenders pay for giving him space.
His upside is limited, but mid-first-round teams more concerned with adding backcourt depth will be taking a look.
Juwan Staten, West Virginia, 6'1", PG, Senior
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After a breakout junior year, Juwan Staten looked like he'd at least be in position to make a run at a 2015 first-round bid.
Now, you'd like to think he'll just be happy getting drafted.
Fresh off a 2-of-7 performance Saturday in a blowout loss to Baylor, Staten continues to struggle against quality competition. He wasn't much of a factor in a 19-point loss to Oklahoma the game before, and he combined to shoot 2-of-16 against the Sooners and Texas in consecutive contests back in January.
Staten's numbers are down significantly across the board from a year ago, when he averaged 18.1 points and 5.8 assists on 48.6 percent shooting. As a senior, he's averaging just 14.4 points and 4.4 assists on 40.9 percent shooting.
Though lightning-quick off the bounce, Johnson has been awful around the rim, where he's finishing at an ugly 42.9 percent clip, per Hoop-Math. We haven't seen him make much progress as a shooter, either. Staten is just 14-of-42 from downtown and 71.8 percent from the free-throw line.
Over the next few weeks, he'll get a crack at Kansas twice, Iowa State, Oklahoma State and Baylor once more. But at 22 years old, you have to wonder how much room there is left for Staten's stock to rise. Even a strong finish to the year could be too little, too late.
Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin, 7'0", C, Senior
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While the questions over Frank Kaminsky's strength and athleticism still remain on the table, they're starting to become a lot easier to overlook.
His ball skills have reached a new level. Kaminsky has emerged as arguably the toughest cover in college hoops, given his 41.4 percent three-point stroke, polished post moves and deceptively agile face-up attack.
He's the only major-conference player to lead his team in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, per ESPN's Jeff Goodman.
The advanced stats are good to Kaminsky as well. He ranks No. 1 in the country in player efficiency rating and No. 1 in win shares per 40 minutes, which speaks to his value on the floor.
Wisconsin's only conference loss of the season was to Rutgers on January 11, a game in which Kaminsky was forced to sit out after suffering a concussion. Since then, he's shot 58.2 percent and has gone on to score 22 points against Nebraska, 22 against Michigan, 24 against Iowa and 23 against Indiana—all wins.
Outside of shooting and scoring, he has also improved in a number of other areas following his initial breakout last season.
Kaminsky is bringing in an extra rebound per 40 minutes. And he has already surpassed his assist total from a year ago.
He has even made major strides on defense, having lowered his rating to 86.8 from 97.7. Kaminsky is also averaging just 2.2 fouls per 40 after averaging 3.7 in 2013-14, a reflection of his basketball IQ and ability to adjust.
Regardless of where you believe his ceiling tops out, NBA teams are bound to covet Kaminsky's ability to stretch the floor, pass and protect the rim. At this point, it would seem crazy for him to not get looks from projected lottery participants.
Chris Walker, Florida, 6'10", PF, Sophomore
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Chris Walker's stock appears to have hit rock bottom after the former McDonald's All-American went scoreless in 11 minutes against Kentucky on Saturday.
He put up a bagel the previous game against Vanderbilt as well, after picking up three fouls in just nine minutes.
Walker has shown practically nothing in terms of ball skills, shot creativity or basketball IQ. At this point, athleticism is the one thing he has going for him, only he hasn't proved he knows how to convert it into production or activity.
Considering how little he's accomplished since arriving at Florida, I wouldn't bank on his returning and wasting another year. Walker might ultimately have a better shot at generating NBA interest in team workouts, where his offensive limitations are less likely to show up and his physical tools are likely to shine.
Still, he's gone from potential 2014 lottery pick to completely off the 2015 radar.
Mario Hezonja, Croatia, 6'8", SG/SF, 1995
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Mario Hezonja is heating up overseas, where he's coming off a record-setting performance in the Spanish ACB.
He finished 8-for-8 from downtown on February 1 in what was a perimeter-scoring clinic. Hezonja showcased everything from quick-release spot-ups and jumpers running off screens to deep three-point range and step-back separation.
And at 6'8", there just aren't too many guards or wings who can really get up there to contest him.
Hezonja followed by dropping 22 points in a loss to Real Madrid, a club loaded with former NBA pros and draft picks. He drilled five more triples. He also generated pick-and-roll offense on a number of occasions, whether he was finding the screener with a pass, pulling up as a shooter or scoring one-on-one after the defense had switched.
According to DraftExpress' Mike Schmitz, through 13 Euroleague games, 23.9 percent of his offense has come out of pick-and-rolls, which highlights his ball-handling skills and vision.
With spectacular athletic ability and overwhelming size for the position, Hezonja's versatility fuels some awfully enticing mismatch potential. That we're starting to see it come together should comfort hesitant NBA evaluators who've watched him warm Barcelona's bench since 2013.
Outside of Duke's Jahlil Okafor, Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell, China's Emmanuel Mudiay and Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns, Hezonja should be one of the top options in the follow-up tier.
All stats courtesy of Sports-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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