Which Drivers Have the Best Chance to Win Their 1st Daytona 500 in 2015?
Going back in time and looking at past Daytona 500 winners, most have one thing in common: experience.
This isn’t a race typically won by an upstart, but rather by seasoned drivers. The exceptions to that rule may have been Jamie McMurray in 2007 and Trevor Bayne in 2011. Beyond them, it’s all the familiar faces.
Four active winners of this race have won Sprint Cup championships (Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick). Point being, the winner of this race is categorically one of the better drivers on the circuit.
That said, there are several drivers who have never won a Daytona 500 who have the talent and experience to win the most coveted checkered flag in all of NASCAR.
Let’s examine some of the non-winners of this event and see who stands the best chance at winning his first Daytona 500.
Greg Biffle
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It’s been 12 years, but Greg Biffle won a race at Daytona. Again, like Tony Stewart and Kyle Busch, it was the second time around at Daytona, just 100 miles shorter.
He’s got the game to back it up. He has a car that can run toward the front of this big oval.
Biffle wouldn’t be considered one of the favorites, but rather a sleeper to win this race. He finished eighth last year and is now "the man” for Roush Fenway Racing with the departure of Carl Edwards.
Finishing eighth made that his third top-10 in six races at Daytona. Biffle also has 1,830 laps within the top 15. Staying toward the front in these restrictor-plate races always keeps a driver in contention.
Kurt Busch
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Kurt Busch is an often overlooked driver when it comes to Daytona. His average finish at DIS is 16.3 with 2,724 quality passes and 274 laps led.
He’s never won a race at the superspeedways, but he does have an impressive catalog of 28 top-10s in 56 starts. Having that level of consistency and being within a second of the front means he’s on the cusp of something special.
In his case, this win is certainly elusive.
Busch could have the added distraction of his ongoing domestic abuse allegations that have forced team owner Tony Stewart to sketch a "contingency plan" should Busch be unable to drive.
“We do, but we're kind of waiting to see what happens," Stewart told FoxSports.com. "I'm very hopeful we won't have to worry about it. I feel bad that he's in that situation right now, that they're both in that situation. We have to be smart and we have to have a plan in place if it doesn't work out for whatever reason."
Clint Bowyer
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Could this be the year Clint Bowyer breaks through at DIS? The numbers suggest he just might.
Bowyer boasts a 44 percent career top-10 rate at DIS, and the past few years have seen him within striking distance of the leaders. In three of his last four trips to DIS, he finished fourth, 11th and ninth.
Mark Taylor of RotoWire (via FoxSports.com) wrote, “...So Bowyer is carrying momentum on these style ovals into the new season. The veteran driver owns two career Talladega victories so it's clear he knows how to race and get to the front in these big multi-car packs at Daytona.”
And Bowyer may need a nice, greasy breakfast from Waffle House when it’s all said and done.
“Hopefully, we can leave (Daytona) with a really cool trophy and a hell of a hangover,” he told NASCAR.com.
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Brad Keselowski
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Brad Keselowski may be the one to beat in this race despite never winning at Daytona.
The 2012 Sprint Cup champion has been a beast at the sister oval at Talladega, winning three races there, including a clutch win in the Chase that advanced him to the Eliminator Round.
The past few 500s have seen him come close. He finished third last year, and two seasons ago, he led 13 laps and finished fourth.
Whether he’s shooting the gap on Jeff Gordon or blowing the doors off drivers at ’Dega, Keselowski is a heavy favorite to win this race. In fact he’s the co-second choice according to Odds Shark at 12-1.
Denny Hamlin
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Denny Hamlin has had some success at Daytona, but he hasn't yet had the breakthrough win.
He has won the exhibition races and has proven he can win restrictor-plate races, so it could only be a matter of time before Hamlin strikes the front at Daytona. Hamlin told The Charlotte Observer:
"I’m as optimistic this time of the year as I have been any year. I’m no hungrier. I’m too competitive to be lackadaisical. We had a lackluster year (in 2014) but still made it as far as we did. I thought last year we ran as bad as we possibly could, given the organization we’re with. We’ve got a lot of room for improvement, and I think that will change this year.
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Hamlin advanced to the championship four in the 2014 season and finished third in the Chase behind only Kevin Harvick and Ryan Newman.
The man in the No. 11 car is in the conversation with the best drivers in the sport. He just needs to prove it on the biggest stage NASCAR sees all year.
Carl Edwards
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Carl Edwards may be in a better position to win this race than he ever has. He’s part of a new outfit with Joe Gibbs Racing and has all of the research and resources that JGR brings with it.
Edwards has had a decent run at Daytona with nearly 2,600 quality passes and an average finish of 19.1. He also has the confidence of rival Brad Keselowski, who thinks Edwards is the best driver on the circuit.
"I have seen what Carl has done in cars that didn't have the speed. He has a very diverse skill set. He has been able to win at tracks like Sonoma and has won at every type of track and I feel like he does the best job of any driver I have seen out there at taking a car that is not fast and finding speed out of it.
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Now that Edwards drives for a superior outfit at JGR, the best of Edwards may be in 2015. Keselowski thinks so.
“It would not surprise me if they were the team to beat this year," Keselowski said. "There is something about those new teams. Magic comes together."
Kyle Busch
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Kyle Busch ranks as one of the better drivers on this circuit if he manages to keep his car out of the garage. When he wasn’t running near the top in 2014, he was often toward the bottom. The middle road was the one less traveled for Busch.
Busch has a winning history at Daytona, winning there in 2008. And with a son on the way, he has that renewed focus that he saw when Harvick parlayed fatherhood into a Sprint Cup championship.
Correlation doesn’t prove causation, but it can’t hurt. Busch told NASCARTalk.com’s Jerry Bonkowski:
"You certainly hope so. I just think it all timed out so well for him (Harvick) obviously. Being with a new team and I know exactly what he’s talking about how you go to work and you just wonder if this is what you want to do and you’re not happy doing it and then you go to a new team and it’s like, ‘Holy cow.’ Everything changes and the world flips upside down.
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He would know a thing or two about flipping upside down.
Tony Stewart
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Tony Stewart sits atop this list as the best never driver never to win Daytona. He’s a three-time champ and a four-time winner at Daytona International Speedway, just not the winner of the one that matters.
He's even led a staggering 551 laps at DIS.
“It’s a hard race, and it’s not like you get to come back next week and try it again if you don’t accomplish it,” Stewart told MotorSportsTalk.com. “You get one shot a year to accomplish this goal.”
What makes his chances to win this race in 2015 revolves around health. Last season, a season where he went winless, was marred early on by the leg injury he suffered in 2013.
Stewart has maintained his health, won the Sprint Cup championship as co-owner and has that X-factor of experience on his side.
If all of the pieces fall into place, he could finally fill the only glaring hole on his career resume.
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