NFL Draft 2015: Small-School Stars with Potential to Move Up Draft Boards

Not to discount what NFL scouts do—it's a very, very difficult job—but most football fans are generally good at identifying the best players on high-profile teams.

It doesn't take an advanced understanding of route trees to tell you Amari Cooper is a great route-runner. It doesn't take Bill Walsh levels of genius to tell you Jameis Winston's football intelligence should not be questioned. It doesn't take much more than eyes to tell you Melvin Gordon is fast.

Where scouts make their money—or, more accurately, where they earn it—is by parsing through the minutiae. Figuring out which guard is somehow always involved springing long runs. Understanding the difference between football speed and combine speed, something that seems to fall through the cracks every year.  

And, yes, looking at droves of small-school film neither you, I nor the most hardcore football fan can fathom making it through. It means watching the sixth- and seventh-place MAC teams battle on a random Wednesday night on a purple field and attempting to find NFL talent. It means going to the occasional Division III game, where there might be more players on the sidelines than fans in the stands. It means doing the things we absolutely do not want to do.

With that in mind, I figured now is as good of a time as any to introduce a few small-school stars who'll be making a name for themselves in the coming weeks. 

Jay Ajayi, RB, Boise State

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Let's start with the biggest cheat on this list. Anyone who's a college football fan knows Jay Ajayi. Boise State is a "small school" only under the metrics as we typically define them. It's been an outlier for years, the great white shark in a movie theatre-sized fish tank.

If you can get past the optics of the horrifying blue field, Ajayi's been a joy to watch each of the past two seasons. He rushed for 3,248 yards and 46 touchdowns as a sophomore and junior, helping atone for what at times was a checkdown-filled, inconsistent passing game. Boise State also used him regularly as a pass-catcher, and he finished 2014 with 534 yards and four scores through the air.

Over the next couple months, the name Matt Forte will be thrown around. Because it should be. Ajayi is something of a Forte clone—good at a ton of things without being especially spectacular at one. He'll probably run somewhere in the mid-4.5s and perform in the middle of the pack during agility drills while not being an especially bruising specimen.

But when coaches get to see him on the field, they'll realize how special he is as a full package. Ajayi is as close as you're going to get to a three-down back in this class, with Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley both having questions in the passing game. He'll be a solid fit and a potential first-year starter wherever he goes off the board, likely in the second or third round.

Justin Hardy, WR, East Carolina

Ted Richardson/Associated Press

The white-hot light that followed East Carolina around during its 6-1 start burned out, but its offense did not. Quarterback Shane Carden wound up second in the nation in passing yards, the Pirates put up more than five touchdowns per game and Justin Hardy continued his upperclassman emergency.

A year after blasting records with a 114-catch season, Hardy was back at it again as a senior. He put up 121 grabs for 1,494 yards and 10 touchdowns, setting the NCAA's all-time record for career receptions in the process. Three 1,000-yard campaigns in as many years left him third on the all-time receiving yardage record.

Discount Hardy's production on the basis of competition and scheme if you want. You'd just be making a mistake. Hardy is an extremely skilled route-runner who is willing to fight in traffic to haul in any pass. He's never going to wow with blazing speed—or, frankly, even above-average speed—but he is quick enough to create enough separation underneath to get open.

NFL teams will see him as a possession slot guy. The slot role has been changing increasingly—teams are using the slot to create matchups for downfield passes more than ever—but players such as Hardy have a place in the NFL. Julian Edelman just caught nine passes in a Super Bowl. With enough competitiveness and separation skills underneath, guys such as Hardy can thrive.

Garrett Grayson, QB, Colorado State

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

Get ready for a bunch of glowing scouting reports that wildly overrate how good Garrett Grayson can be. Because quarterbacks are generally easy to differentiate on the highest levels, every year we see teams fall way too in love with a dude from a non-traditional power.

Last year, it was Jimmy Garoppolo. The year before, Ryan Nassib. Go through the last dozen or so years of draft history and you'll find an outlier. For the record: Garoppolo may be good; ascending in this fashion does not preclude someone from being a competent quarterback. One of the most famous cases of this is Joe Flacco, who once wasn't considered good enough to beat out Tyler Palko at Pitt and wound up at Delaware.

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

Grayson is the 2015 version of just that. The Colorado State product had a breakout 2014, throwing for 4,006 yards and 32 touchdowns against seven interceptions. He completed a very good 64.3 percent of his passes in a downfield-oriented attack, averaging 9.54 yards per attempt. 

His QBR, per ESPN.com, was also a very mediocre 31st nationally. When watching Grayson play, there's a whole lot of "fine" and not very much spectacular. He can look excellent when the play breaks his way and lost when it doesn't. CBS Sports currently has him going between the third and fourth round, which is a fair assessment for someone who's probably an above-average backup.

But do not be surprised when rumors start flying about him coming off the board as early as the second. Things like this tend to happen with quarterbacks.

Christian Covington, DT, Rice

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

First clue about someone being pretty good at football: He plays at Rice and decided to leave a year early. An exceedingly high percentage of small-school players who will be drafted in April are seniors. They know they need as much film as possible—and the typical statistical bump that comes for being a fourth-year guy—to catch national attention.

That Covington came out after a season-ending knee injury is proof enough he has the talent to be a difference-maker at the next level (or that he needs better advisers...we'll see).

When he went down with a dislocated knee in November, initial expectations had him missing six months. He probably won't be able to participate in the combine, which is about the fourth-month mark. More likely is his agent will start setting up formal individual workouts a couple weeks before the draft.

Combined with his excellent film, it should be about that point Covington starts ascending from late-round status into the second day. As a sophomore, Covington was a constant disruptive force, making 59 total tackles and 11.5 for loss. At 6'3" and 295 pounds, he has the strength and quickness to play a one-gap or two-gap system when needed.

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter.