2015 NFL Mock Draft: Bold Predictions for Top Prospects

The NFL draft is so popular that prospects are forced to live up to an impossible standard. Unless these young men lead their new team to a championship and make the Hall of Fame after retiring, someone will always find something to nitpick. 

Because there's so much focus on all the prospects, it's easy to lose focus on what they are going through physically and mentally at the professional level. The transition isn't easy; otherwise, every draft pick would be a success. 

The 2015 class has its share of risk and reward talents, whether you are looking at the very top of the draft or finding Mr. Irrelevant, but all of them are fascinating because the difference between what they are and what they could be is so stark. 

Whatever is going to happen starting April 30 will be must-see television because of how teams want to begin the process of building a title team in 2015. Here is a look at an updated first-round mock draft, as well as predictions for how things will shake out for the top prospects. 

Pick	Team	Player
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
2	Tennessee Titans	Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	Leonard Williams, DL, USC
4	Oakland Raiders	Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
5	Washington	Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska
6	New York Jets	Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
7	Chicago Bears	Landon Collins, S, Alabama
8	Atlanta Falcons	Shane Ray, DE, Missouri
9	New York Giants	Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon
10	St. Louis Rams	Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
11	Minnesota Vikings	DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
12	Cleveland Browns	Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
13	New Orleans Saints	Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
14	Miami Dolphins	Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
15	San Francisco 49ers	Dante Fowler Jr., DE, Florida
16	Houston Texans	Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
17	San Diego Chargers	Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
18	Kansas City Chiefs	Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State
19	Cleveland Browns (Acquired from Buffalo)	Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
20	Philadelphia Eagles	Vic Beasley, DE/OLB, Clemson
21	Cincinnati Bengals	Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
23	Detroit Lions	T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
24	Arizona Cardinals	Carl Davis, DT, Iowa
25	Carolina Panthers	La'El Collins, G, LSU
26	Baltimore Ravens	Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
27	Dallas Cowboys	Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
28	Denver Broncos	Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota
29	Indianapolis Colts	Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M
30	Green Bay Packers	Benardrick McKinney, LB, Mississippi State
31	Seattle Seahawks	Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan
32	New England Patriots	Michael Bennett, DT, Ohio State

The No. 1 Quarterback

John Raoux/Associated Press

One of the great debates in this year's draft will be over the top quarterback. We are nearly one month removed from the national championship when Marcus Mariota looked out of sorts against Ohio State, leading to more questions about his ability in the NFL. 

It's become apparent in the subsequent weeks that Mariota's stock may not be as high as it once seemed. 

Benjamin Allbright of Mile High Sports noted that scouts aren't enamored with Mariota, in part because of his frame:

Whether it's fair or not, Mariota is going to be more scrutinized than Winston because the Oregon star doesn't look like a traditional NFL quarterback. He's got size at 6'4", but 211 pounds is slight for a player at the position. There's also the question of what will happen when you take his first read away. 

Winston certainly has question marks, most of which revolve around things off the field. Logic would tell you that should be a bigger concern than Mariota's physical traits, but that's not how the NFL works. 

Looking at Winston as a pro prospect, Lance Zierlein of NFL.com had one of the best comparisons that no one wants to hear:

"

Winston's body type and release are very much like Byron Leftwich's, but when you look at his skill set, his ability and his penchant for making poor decisions in giving the ball away unnecessarily with interceptions, that's more like Eli. His game is more like Eli's because he can hurt the other team and his own team with some of his decision making. The talent is there. The easy comparison is to Leftwich because he's not a very mobile quarterback and has a very elongated delivery.

"

In terms of the NFL prototype at quarterback, Winston certainly fits the bill. He's 6'4" and 235 pounds, with arm strength, flashes of touch and accuracy in tight windows and a knack for making dumb mistakes. 

When you take all of their abilities into consideration, Mariota has the higher ceiling but is also more likely to flame out in two years. Winston has a good floor that teams can at least work with to help get him closer to the ceiling, though he doesn't feel like the star quarterback it seemed he would be after 2013. 

Winston is going to go No. 1 to Tampa Bay because of the physical attributes, while Mariota is penciled in to Tennessee at No. 2 with the ability to move down depending on how his workouts look. 

Two Running Backs On Day 1

Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images

No running back has been taken in the first round of the draft since 2012, when Trent Richardson, Doug Martin and David Wilson went in the first 32 picks. Given the career trajectories of those players, it's not hard to understand why teams are reluctant to invest a high pick in the position. 

Wilson's career was cut short by an unfortunate injury that forced him to retire. Richardson has been one of the great busts in recent draft history. Martin was great as a rookie but has played just 17 games in the last two years. 

Despite the red flags that come with running backs, this year feels like a strong year to predict two running backs going in the first round. It won't happen early, as no one is going to look at one in the top 15-20 picks, but it doesn't feel far-fetched. 

First, there are actually running backs worthy of going in the first round. Melvin Gordon is generating a lot of buzz already, as B/R's Matt Miller says in the video below:

When you look at playoff teams in the bottom of the first round, a lot of them have running back questions. Arizona, Detroit, Carolina, Baltimore and Dallas could all be looking to add an immediate starter or get younger at the position. 

One thing that is known about the NFL draft is that teams will reach for a player if they believe someone else after them likes the same player. 

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Gordon's workload at Wisconsin, which included 549 carries over the last two years, is going to give some teams pause. His production and all the tools he showed with the Badgers, particularly field vision and burst, will make him an easy choice. 

Georgia's Todd Gurley is the wild card. It seemed like a foregone conclusion he would be the first running back taken before tearing his ACL in November. The good news is that that injury occurred with enough time for him to get surgery and go through some rehab so he might be able to do some pre-draft workouts. 

If teams like Gurley, he's got borderline first-round upside because of the freakish athletic ability he displayed before getting hurt. 

As far as running back-needy teams go, Gurley feels like he fits in Dallas. Jerry Jones loves to make a splash with a marquee name and could have an opening if the Cowboys aren't able to afford DeMarco Murray. 

Dane Brugler of CBS Sports had the Cowboys taking Gurley in his latest mock draft because of the value at pick No. 27 and the possible opening at the position.

"This pick will almost certainly be defense ... unless a prospect like Gurley falls to Dallas," Brugler wrote. "The Cowboys need defensive help, but a special talent like Gurley might be too intriguing if the trainers sign off on his medicals and DeMarco Murray hits the open market."

As things stand more than two months away from the draft, Gordon and Gurley fit nicely into the first round and should hear their names called before all 32 picks on Day 1 have been made. 

The Pass-Rush Surge

Given how much the NFL has shifted to a quarterback-driven league, with teams airing the ball out more often than ever, it should come as no surprise that the second-most valuable position right now is pass-rusher. 

It doesn't matter if the player is coming off the edge as a defensive end or outside linebacker or lining up inside to bull rush offensive linemen, if you can get to the quarterback, teams are going to take notice. 

This mock contains 11 defensive linemen and outside linebackers in the first round, which could end up being a low number by the time April 30 rolls around. 

Fortunately for teams seeking help attacking the quarterback, the strength of this year's draft class is pass-rushers. 

Eric Edholm of Yahoo Sports wrote in November that this year's draft could be the year of the pass-rusher because of how deep the position is:

"

The 2015 rush class might thin out, as several players are underclassmen and could return to school. In a few cases — and especially considering the depth of the front-seven talent — those might be wise decisions. But assuming that the top underclassmen declare, we could see some shockingly good pass-rush talent enter the draft.

Right at a time when the NFL most needs it.

"

One thing that's become apparent early in the evaluation process is that athleticism wins out over performance. Vic Beasley was a more productive player at Clemson than Arik Armstead at Oregon, yet Armstead is going to go higher on draft day because he's 6'7" and 285 pounds. (Beasley is 6'2" and 220 pounds.)

Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

Florida's Dante Fowler didn't break out until his junior year, yet he's firmly in the mid-first-round mix. As ESPN's Todd McShay noted in his second mock draft, Fowler's versatility is going to win him a lot of fans.

"He isn't an elite athlete but has good flexibility, violent hands and efficient counter moves as a pass-rusher, and he has experience playing multiple spots among the D-line, as well as outside linebacker in a 3-4 alignment," McShay wrote.

As you get deeper into the first round, those smaller athletes like Beasley and Virginia's Eli Harold are going to start popping up. 

You can never have too many quality defensive linemen or outside linebackers. It helps when the talent is there, as it appears to be in 2015, so teams are going to have their share of options and take full advantage of it in the first round. 

The good news is that there's quality depth in the pass-rushing department, so teams will find talent in the second and third rounds if they don't get it on Day 1.