Patriots: Boom-or-Bust Prospects New England Should Gamble on in NFL Draft

The New England Patriots and their fans will take plenty of time to bask in the sweet glow of the organization's fourth Super Bowl championship.  However, the NFL is truly a 365-day business, and less than a week after one of the most important victories in franchise history, many have already moved on to considering how the 2015 Patriots can repeat.

Free agency will mostly be about retention, and if the Pats can keep the likes of Darrelle Revis and Devin McCourty in tow, the immediate core won't have many holes.  New England would still have depth issues at guard, defensive line and wide receiver, and the running back position could be an area of need, depending on the free-agent fates of Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley. 

Still, when it comes to draft preparation, the Pats' enviable depth puts them in a position to speculate on high-upside plays for the future.  Bill Belichick and the front office have never adopted an "all-in" mentality to maximizing Tom Brady's twilight years, and their focus on steady depth accumulation finally paid off this past season. 

Thus, when thinking about potential Patriots, it's intriguing to consider boom-or-bust prospects who could raise the team's ceiling during the waning years of the Brady-Belichick era.  Many of those players turn into Chad Jackson or Ras-I Dowling, but when one of those selections turns into Rob Gronkowski, it's an absolute team-changer. 

With that in mind, here's an early look at five of the highest-variance prospects who could fit well in Foxborough.

Blake Bell, TE, Oklahoma

Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press

The name might be familiar, but the position won't be.  During his collegiate career, Blake Bell earned acclaim as the "Belldozer," a quarterback-turned-goal-line specialist for the Oklahoma Sooners who scored 24 rushing touchdowns over his first two seasons in Norman.

What many casual college football fans may not realize is that Bell became a full-time tight end his senior year after Travis Knight seized the starting quarterback job. The 6'6", 259-pound Bell certainly has the dimensions to play the position, and while his senior year stat line (16 catches, 214 yards, four touchdowns) isn't particularly impressive, scouts raved about his growth during the Shrine Game practice week:

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Was told by a team scout to watch more Blake Bell. Got ahold of Shrine Game practices and holy wow. Progress made thruout the year is +++

— Matt Miller (@nfldraftscout) February 4, 2015"

Obviously, Bell is an incredibly raw project at the position, and it will likely be multiple years before he's ready for the position.  It's also hard to imagine him ever becoming a capable blocker, given that he never developed the linemen-like instincts necessary to understand angles in short spaces.  Any team that drafts Bell will need to teach him how to run routes, as his physical edge won't be so pronounced in the pros.

Nevertheless, as someone who will likely be a late-round selection, Bell would be a worthy project for the Patriots.  New England figures to keep Tim Wright around as a potential complementary "move" tight end to Rob Gronkowski, but it's no guarantee that the former undrafted free agent ever assimilates himself into the system. 

If the Patriots really do want to keep the "12" personnel in their playbook, Bell is the type of player who could pay dividends in that respect down the road.

Josue Matias, OG, Florida State

USA TODAY Sports

Within the starting lineup, the Patriots' biggest need is probably guard.  Dan Connolly and Ryan Wendell are both subpar pass-blockers, and the former is a 32-year-old free agent with a lengthy concussion history.  Given how badly Josh Kline and Jordan Devey struggled when given a chance to start, it doesn't appear as if the Pats have a logical, cost-controlled replacement currently on the roster.

The free-agent market is extremely thin, too, assuming the likes of Mike Iupati, Clint Boling and Joe Barksdale don't leave their current teams.  The draft doesn't offer many top-flight options, but among Day 2 guard prospects, Florida State's Josue Matias possesses the skill set that could make him an immediate starter in Foxborough.

The 6'6", 325-pound Matias possesses the mammoth frame of a road-grader, but his strength is actually in pass protection.  As BuffaloBillsDraft.com's Nat Jordan illustrates, Matias demonstrates a precocious awareness in the passing game, a partial byproduct of Florida State's pro-style offense:

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One of the best pass-protecting guards in this draft, Matias is a three-year starter who is experienced in the art of pass blocking from doing so frequently over the past two years with Jameis Winston at quarterback for the Seminoles.

He is adept in passing situations in which any sort of defensive lineman is rushing him and he isn’t on too much of an island. Matias was able to communicate well with teammates to set up double-teams and chip blocks on defensive tackles and ends.

"

Matias' run-blocking woes seem to stem more from a surprising lack of power and technique inconsistencies, both assets that could be developed over time.  If available on Day 2, Matias would represent a nice value pick whom the Pats could plug in right away.

Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, CB, Oregon

Steve Dykes/Getty Images

Cornerback isn't really an area of need for the Patriots this offseason.  Even if Darrelle Revis leaves in free agency, it's not as if a rookie is going to waltz in and seamlessly keep the secondary humming.  Revis is more of an all-or-nothing proposition, as New England will likely change its entire scheme if its No. 1 corner leaves.

However, given the regression from young corners Alfonzo Dennard and Logan Ryan in 2014, the Pats might dip back into the draft to rebuild depth.  If they adopt that mindset, arguably no prospect could offer a better medium-risk-high-reward proposition than Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, a former consensus first-rounder who will likely be around later because of the torn ACL he suffered before the Rose Bowl.

Ekpre-Olomu's injury combined with his size limitations (5'10", 195 lbs) have conspired to move him down draft boards.  But as SBNation.com's Dawn Macelli notes, the former Oregon Duck also possesses exemplary ball skills and an infectious swagger that endeared him to the fans in Eugene:

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During a career that saw him start as a true freshman, Ekpre-Olomu developed a reputation for being a turnover machine, a trait that will surely endear him to fans wherever he lands in the NFL. His movements are fluid and he closes quickly on the play. He can play effectively in both press and off man situations. During the 2014 college season, Ifo contributed 63 tackles, two interceptions, and 11 pass break ups for the Ducks. He received first team All-America honors for his efforts.

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To be sure, Ekpre-Olomu needs some fairly extensive technique refinement, as he has a tendency to freelance, much like old Patriots corner Asante Samuel.  A Samuel prototype wouldn't necessarily be a fit in the system the Patriots have played the last two seasons, but the example of Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler shows that there is always room on the roster for a fearless corner with promising ball skills.

Arik Armstead, DT, Oregon

It feels a bit strange calling Armstead a "boom-or-bust" proposition. Even at just 290 pounds, the goliath 6'8" tackle is already one of the draft's premier run-stuffers and a safe bet to become at least a two-down cornerstone.  In New England's system, the Oregon product would fit in perfectly as a 5-technique in its hybrid front.

But Armstead's stock is already on the rise, a trend that only figures to continue after scouts see him in predraft workouts.  It's too early to definitively solidify anyone's stock, but it feels as though Armstead is the type of player the Patriots might have to trade up for.

The odds of a trade-up aren't particularly likely considering both Bill Belichick's draft history and the Patriots' lack of pressing needs.  But Belichick did move up twice to snag both Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower, so there certainly is precedent for such a move if he feels as though a front-seven game-changer is available.

Armstead needs plenty of coaching in terms of developing a pass-rushing arsenal—he tends to stay upright and lose leverage—but per this insightful scouting report from FootballSavages.com's Derrik Klassen, Armstead compares favorably to two longtime starters:

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In the NFL, Armstead is going to be somewhere between Chris Canty and Calais Campbell, both of which are good players. Canty, the lower end of the spectrum, is an outstanding run defender who has moments of overpowering pass rushing, while Campbell is a consistently overpowering player in every facet of his game. Even if Armstead is not the best prospect in the class, guys like him don’t come around too often.

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New England isn't going to sacrifice half its draft haul to move up for Armstead.  However, with two fourth-rounders and another potential mid-round compensatory pick coming for Aqib Talib, the Pats could have the ammo necessary to move up if Armstead slips into the early 20s.

Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia

If there's a player who can revive the running back position's rapidly deteriorating draft stock, it's Todd Gurley.  Even coming off a torn ACL, the Georgia product remains the top back in the draft and the likeliest player at the position to reach the first round:

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@Kevin_Lang20 Gurley is the best RB in this class. By far. As soon as I find out about his rehab status, he'll be in the 1st

— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) January 31, 2015"

It's probably unfair that the overpowering stench of Trent Richardson, the last "can't-miss" running back prospect, will depress Gurley's draft stock a bit.  Additionally, this year's extremely deep backfield crop means that teams can afford to sit back and still pick up a Day 1 starter in the middle rounds, lessening the need to jump the gun for Gurley.

Still, apart from track-star speed, Gurley possesses every trait one could want in a running back. 

Sturdily built at 6'1" and 226 pounds, the ex-Bulldog is slightly reminiscent of Marshawn Lynch in his power, vision and balance through contact.  Check out this terrific scouting report (which contains a curious number of food metaphors) from Football Outsiders' Matt Waldman if you're looking to familiarize yourself with Gurley's game.

Belichick has been loath to sign running backs to second contracts unless they are on bargain-basement deals, like LeGarrette Blount.  With both Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley hitting free agency this spring, there's a reasonable chance that New England's backfield committee will need another member. 

If the Patriots stand pat at pick 32, Gurley could develop into the type of talent that becomes the focal point of the Pats offense as Tom Brady ages.