UFC Fight Night 61: Preliminary Card Predictions
The UFC is on a rare Sunday this weekend, as the company returns to Brazil with UFC Fight Night 61. Headlined by Frank Mir and Antonio Silva, the card includes some contenders in their respective divisions.
Before that headliner, we have the prelims. Every fight has at least one Brazilian fighter in it, highlighting the local talent and up-and-coming fighters.
I had a perfect record of 4-0 with my UFC Fight Night 60 picks. We will look to build on that impressive record, as we have six bouts this weekend to add to the already sterling record in 2015.
Without further ado, here are the prelim picks for UFC Fight Night 61.
2015 Riley's Record: 23-9
Last Event: UFC Fight Night 60 (4-0)
Ivan Jorge vs. Josh Shockley
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Kicking things off are the featherweights, as Ivan Jorge takes on Josh Shockley. Both men will be focused on being to get back into the win column.
Jorge, known as "Batman" in Brazil, is a member of the underrated Team Tavares in Brazil and a physically imposing grappler. His plan is to grind you into the cage, get on top of you and look for suffocating chokes, especially his go-to move, the rear-naked choke.
He opened his UFC career with an impressive victory over Keith Wisniewski, but had his momentum halted in a follow-up bout with Rodrigo Damm in a nail-biter. Jorge is looking to make a name for himself in the featherweight division, which makes this bout so important.
As for Shockley, the Indiana native is a Bellator veteran with submission grappling ability and is a brawler on the feet. Nothing particularly sticks out for Shockley, other than he is a tough fighter and aggressive moving forward.
His UFC debut saw a two-fight win streak get halted when Jason Saggo ended his night via strikes. He is looking to erase the memory of that loss and play the Joker to Jorge's Batman.
Shockley's two previous losses came via submission, which is concerning considering Jorge is likely a better grappler than Toby Imada and Keith Schneider. He also has the takedown ability, which will play in his favor when he ends Shockley's night.
Prediction: Jorge def. Shockley via submission
Douglas Silva vs. Cody Gibson
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Next up are the bantamweights, as Douglas Silva looks to defend his home turf against the infamous man of Google fame, Cody Gibson.
Gibson is a kickboxer who likes to brawl on the feet, but he does have decent wrestling. He is surprisingly quick on the feet and has knockout power in his hands but also has devastating knees and elbows when he uses them.
He has sandwiched a win with two losses since coming to the UFC. He did knock out Johnny Bedford in his sophomore outing but took losses to Aljamain Sterling and Manny Gamburyan, the latter of who choked out The Renegade.
As for Silva, he is a striker who has scored 18 knockouts in the 22 victories he has achieved. He entered the UFC at 22-0, though the competition he fought in Brazil was not exactly world-class.
He will need to figure out the cardio issues that we saw against Zubaira Tukhugov in his debut. A lot of his wins have come by first-round knockout, but if he's not able to achieve that with a tough guy like Gibson, he will need to pace himself for three rounds.
Given his back-pocket wrestling and overall toughness, Gibson just has to drag Silva into deep water. He will do that, using a well-rounded approach to tire and earn a decision.
Prediction: Gibson def. Silva via decision
Wendell Oliveira vs. TJ Waldburger
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Next up are the welterweights, as Brazilian striker Wendell Oliveira looks to preserve his employment with the company when he meets TJ Waldburger.
Oliveira, a veteran of the most recent The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil, is a power striker known for his reckless brawling style. When he connects, he's dangerous, as he has the force to test any fighter's chin.
His UFC debut showed that reckless style when he engaged in a one minute, 20 second firefight against Santiago Ponzinibbio. That bout did not go well for War Machine, as the Argentine fighter put him to rest with heavy haymakers.
As for Waldburger, he is a submission grappler with slick sweeps, a good game off his back and an aggressive style where he's constantly looking to end the fight. In fact, 13 of his 16 victories have come by way of submission, showing the success he has on the mat.
He has been in the UFC since 2010, but he has failed to find consistency in the Octagon. This is especially true lately, as he is 1-3 in his last four while taking brutal knockouts at the hands of Adlan Amagov and Mike Pyle.
Both men are likely fighting for their jobs here, so expect them to try to prove something. Waldburger can probably get Oliveira down to the mat, so he'll make short work of the Brazilian once he gets his submission game going.
Prediction: Waldburger def. Oliveira via submission
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Tiago Dos Santos vs. Mike De La Torre
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The featherweights will do battle next, as Tiago "Trator" dos Santos looks to keep his UFC record clean when he welcomes Mike de la Torre to his home country.
Known as "el Cucuy," De la Torre is an MMA Lab rep with a well-rounded game, which includes palpable striking and good wrestling. He is a finisher as well, as 11 of his 12 wins have come by knockout or submission.
He has had an interesting run in the UFC so far that has seen him go 0-1 (1 NC). He took a late-notice decision loss to Mark Bocek in a competitive bout that some people thought he won. He followed up with a quick submission loss to Brian Ortega, though Ortega's win was overturned when his drug test came back hot.
As for Dos Santos, he is a Team Nogueira rep with good all-around skills, though his submission game has been on point in recent bouts.
He secured a victory with his striking and clinch work in his UFC debut opposite fellow debutant Akbarh Arreola. He will need to use his well-rounded ability to stifle the aggressive, staunch approach that De le Torre brings on a consistent basis.
This has the makings for an under-the-radar Fight of the Night performance. Both men are aggressive and have the ability to be exciting. Flip a coin, call it in the air and that's your winner. I pick Dos Santos.
Prediction: Dos Santos def. De la Torre via decision
William Macario vs. Matt Dwyer
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Moving on, we head to the welterweight division, as TUF Brazil 2 runner-up William Macario looks to get back to his winning ways when he takes on Canadian striker Matt Dwyer.
Dwyer is a knockout artist who banks on his kickboxing skills. He earned a spot in the UFC after impressive finishes of veterans Shonie Carter and DaMarques Johnson.
That said, he was on the receiving end of a knockout in his UFC debut, which was a highlight-reel head kick by Albert Tumenov. It was a crippling defeat, but Dwyer is looking to erase the memory of that performance and start a winning streak here.
As for Macario, the Brazilian known as "Patolino" (Daffy Duck in Portuguese) is just 23 years old and appears to be one of the brighter prospects from Brazil. He is a striker first and foremost, using quickness, athleticism and power to pepper opponents relentlessly.
He lost his UFC debut via submission to Leo Santos but stormed back with an impressive win against Bobby Voelker. However, that momentum was halted in his last bout, as Neil Magny outhustled and beat Macario down with a stronger skill set and more experience.
This has the makings of a barnburner, given both men's style. However, the movement and accuracy of Macario may be the determining factor here, as he avoids Dwyer's bombs to score a late TKO.
Prediction: Macario def. Dwyer via TKO
Jessica Andrade vs. Marion Reneau
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Capping off the prelims will be the women, as Brazilian brawler Jessica Andrade looks to continue her recent fortunes in the Octagon when she meets up with the savage Marion Reneau.
Andrade, who is just 23 years old and likely a natural flyweight, has thrived since coming to the UFC, becoming a dark horse to watch for in the division. She is a mauler who looks to soften people up on the feet before grounding and pounding them.
She lost a late-notice bout to Liz Carmouche in her debut but hasn't failed since. She owns three straight wins in the UFC, decisioning the likes of Rosi Sexton and Raquel Pennington before using her patented guillotine choke to put away Larissa Pacheco.
As for Reneau, the California native is a well-rounded individual who likes to finish her fights. In fact, of her five wins, just one has gone to decision, and only one of her finishes has been out of the first round, showing she works quickly.
The RFA veteran tapped out Maureen Riordan to secure a deal with Invicta but never even competed for that company. Instead, she accepted a bout with the UFC against Alexis Dufresne, which saw her hand out one of the most one-sided beatings of 2015 so far.
Reneau is definitely a tough out and will give Andrade a good fight. It will be close; however, Andrade's ability on the ground and at closing distance will give Reneau some trouble en route to a razor-thin decision.
Prediction: Andrade def. Reneau via decision
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