One and Done: Carfax 400

With four races remaining before the Chase for the Sprint Cup cutoff, this weekend’s race at Michigan will be crucial for about a dozen teams, whether on the outside looking in or attempting to preserve their playoff positions. The close proximity to the start of the playoffs will undoubtedly change some teams’ strategy, with Michigan likely functioning as a points race for a lot of teams.

After a subpar weekend at Watkins Glen, Mark Martin is surely pleased to return to Michigan, with a solid opportunity to sweep the track’s events for the year. In all actuality, most of Hendrick Motorsports is probably looking to this weekend to help them forget last weekend’s disaster.

This weekend’s race is important to all of the American manufacturers, with each of their headquarters located in Detroit; Michigan is the de facto home track for Ford, Chevrolet, and Dodge. With that in mind, expect the top teams under each nameplate, such as Hendrick and Roush Fenway Racing, to be as strong as their wallets suggest they should be.

Since 2002, Ford has won eight of the past 15 Michigan races, Dodge has won five, and Chevrolet has two, suggesting that the Roush Fords will be forces to be reckoned with this weekend.

If you're new to the column, and/or to the One and Done game, here's a quick explanation: Each week, players pick one driver to represent them in the race. They cannot pick that driver again until a new segment of the game starts (right now, the next reset is after Richmond, for the ten races of the Chase). I offer five solid picks each week that I think will contend for the win, or at least bring home solid finishes. Without further ado, here are this week's picks:

Matt Kenseth

In three of his past four Michigan races he’s placed in the top five. Considering that he’s been pretty quiet since winning the first two races of the season, it’s about time for him to show that same strength he’s exhibited at Michigan in the past.

Greg Biffle

He would have won the June race here, if not for running out of fuel on the final lap. That blip on the radar screen aside, Biffle’s track record at Michigan is generally strong, with two wins and eight top-10s in 13 career starts. Now that he’s back in the Chase, he’ll be running a smart race on Sunday—but, as we saw with Martin in June, smart can lead a driver to stumble into Victory Lane.

Carl Edwards

We all know he’s overdue for a win this year, and his 6.3 career average finish at Michigan suggests that this could be the track to give it to him. In 10 Michigan starts, his worst finish is a 22nd in this race three years ago. His other nine starts have resulted in finishes of 10th or better.

Jimmie Johnson

Hard to believe, but Johnson’s a bit of a surprise Michigan pick. He’s never won at the track, although he looked strong in June before running out of fuel with two laps to go. He’s also led at least 12 laps in each of the past five Michigan races.

Tony Stewart

The points leader and last week’s winner hasn’t won a Michigan race since 2000, but with his past six finishes at the track 12th or better, there’s no reason to expect a poor race this weekend. It’s also interesting to note that Stewart-Haas Racing hasn’t suffered a DNF all season.

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Want to play the One and Done fantasy racing game? Head on over to OnPitRow.com! Sign up before the Loudon race to play in the third segment of the game, which spans the entire Chase for the Sprint Cup.