2015 NBA Draft Prospects Blowing Expectations Out of the Water
Every year, we come across college players who emerge as big-time NBA draft prospects out of nowhere.
Most of the time it's upperclassmen who unexpectedly break out. Sometimes, it's a freshman whose upside was tough to spot out of high school.
This year, we have a little mix of both.
The following guys entered the season as afterthoughts with regards to the 2015 NBA draft conversation. Now they're smack in the middle of it after monster starts to the year.
Whether it's Providence sophomore Kris Dunn blowing up after missing nearly an entire season due to injury or Syracuse senior Rakeem Christmas dominating following three quiet years, these are the NBA prospects who've made the biggest, most unexpected leaps.
Rakeem Christmas, Syracuse: 6'9", PF/C, Senior
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In three years at Syracuse, Rakeem Christmas never averaged more than 5.8 points a game. He's been an afterthought in the offense. You didn't see coach Jim Boeheim drawing up plays for Christmas. The kid rarely even looked at the rim unless he happened to be right underneath it.
But with Tyler Ennis, Jerami Grant and C.J. Fair all gone, and 255-pound center DaJuan Coleman, a former top-50 recruit per 247Sports, not playing this season due to knee problems, there's been no shortage of touches for Christmas his senior year.
Only nobody in their right mind could have predicted he'd convert them into 18.3 points a game.
In one offseason, after showing minimal improvement the previous two, Christmas evolved into a skilled go-to option from a limited catch-and-dunker. He's become a powerful yet clever back-to-the-basket scorer, with the ability to separate and turn over either shoulder.
Before this year, his career high was 15 points, which he'd reached twice since 2011. Christmas already has seven 20-plus-point games this season, including 35 points in an overtime win against Wake Forest on January 13.
This was an upperclassman who couldn't create his own shot just one year ago. Now he's getting double-teamed on the regular. Christmas even shoots 58.2 percent, grabs 9.1 rebounds and blocks 2.2 shots per game.
He still has his flaws and limitations. At 6'9", Christmas is undersized for an NBA center, while his lack of shooting range doesn't quite play to the growing trend of stretch power forwards. Plus, he's already 23 years old.
But at this point, whether it's the late first round or the second, it would be hard to imagine Christmas being passed on 60 times in the draft, something that seemed like a strong possibility after his junior year.
Kris Dunn, Providence: 6'3", PG, Sophomore
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After a shoulder injury shortened his 2012-13 freshman season, Kris Dunn's outlook took a devastating hit when he re-injured the same shoulder during the 2013-14 campaign, which forced him to miss all but four games his true sophomore year.
Dunn was a top-25 recruit for coach Ed Cooley—a huge get and a perceived pro prospect. But other than a pair of surgeries, Dunn hadn't had much to show through two years at Providence.
His appeal as an NBA prospect had begun to fade—until now. Only three players in the country average more assists than Dunn, who's dishing out 7.4 a game as Providence's floor general.
And you can just feel his confidence building as the season progresses.
Dunn has averaged 20 points through his first eight games of 2015. He even put up a 27-point, 13-rebound, 11-assist triple-double against DePaul on January 29.
At 6'3", 205 pounds with a strong, athletic frame, Dunn looks the part of an NBA point guard. Despite being turnover-prone, he's a sharp passer and facilitator in both the pick-and-roll and drive-and-kick games. Dunn can also take over stretches as a scorer, with the ability to separate in the second level or finish around key.
Dunn's shooting range could use work, as he's just 14-of-43 from deep, but his mechanics and shot-making ability suggest room for improvement.
Though it's tough to say whether he declares in 2015, Dunn will already be 21 years old by June's draft. If he can squeak into the first-round conversation, which, given his talent and production, is a possibility, it might be wise for Dunn to bolt and strike while the iron is hot.
Devin Booker, Kentucky: 6'6", SG, Freshman
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Given all the talent and depth on Kentucky's roster, I'm not sure how many would have picked Devin Booker as the team's most efficient scorer.
Averaging 10.6 points per game, he's second in scoring next to Aaron Harrison, who averages 11 points but shoots just 37.1 percent.
Booker is shooting 50.7 percent from the floor and a red-hot 48.2 percent from downtown, having already established himself as one of college basketball's premier long-range snipers.
As lethal as Booker has been from behind the arc, at 6'6" with terrific body control, he's done a nice job of finishing plays inside it as well. He's even 15-of-16 at the rim in transition, according to Hoop-Math.
Booker has also surprised at the defensive end, where his basketball IQ and alertness have really stood out, particularly lately.
"You guys are all looking at him shooting the ball, and it's good stuff, but defensively, I never thought he'd guard this way," coach John Calipari told reporters. "His energy defensively, his ability to stay in front, fight through screens, is what's setting him apart for us right now."
Earlier this season, CBS Sports' Doug Gottlieb referred to Booker as Kentucky's second-best prospect.
In terms of the draft conversation, Booker originally appeared more like a 2016 late-round specialist option. Now, I wouldn't be shocked to see him land in the 2015 lottery. Think J.J. Redick as a ceiling NBA comparison.
D'Angelo Russell, Ohio State: 6'5", PG/SG, Freshman
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D'Angelo Russell wasn't in the lottery conversation prior to the season. I'm not even sure he was in the 2015 NBA draft discussion at all.
Though a high-profile recruit and tremendous high school baller out of Montverde Academy, Russell's combo-guard label, athleticism and shot selection never really ever screamed one-and-done.
Fast-forward about two months into his freshman year. Not only has he looked like possibly the most complete offensive guard in college basketball, I'd argue he's the nation's top prospect outside Duke's Jahlil Okafor.
He's averaging 19.4 points and 5.2 assists on 47.7 percent shooting and 45.4 percent from downtown.
Russell sees the floor like a point guard yet can also take over as a scorer, with the ability to light it up from outside and stop-and-pop on the dime.
And at 6'5" with a sweet outside stroke, coaches can just as easily slide him off the ball as a shooter.
On top of his versatility and skill level, Russell happens to offer the leadership, IQ and confidence that fuel some enticing NBA star power.
Of all the premier prospects projected to declare in 2015, nobody's rise has been greater or more surprising. I'd be all over Russell if I were a team like the New York Knicks, Los Angeles Lakers or even the Philadelphia 76ers.
Jerian Grant, Notre Dame: 6'5", PG, Senior
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Academic issues caused Jerian Grant to miss Notre Dame's final 20 games of his junior season. And he never really generated much draft buzz as a sophomore or freshman—which is why it's a little surprising to see him right up there as a legitimate National Player of the Year contender.
Averaging 17.3 points on 51.3 percent shooting, he's led the Irish to a Top 10 ranking.
But most importantly, from an NBA scouting perspective, it's his floor game that's moved the needle. Grant averages 6.3 assists and just two turnovers a game, showing a willingness to facilitate and a knack for setting the table.
He's demonstrated a terrific feel out of pick-and-rolls as a passer. And he remains dangerous in the drive-and-kick game, where he can suck the defense in off penetration and find his open shooters.
Grant has been just as effective and efficient as a scorer, shooting an outstanding 62.3 percent inside the arc and making 1.6 threes per game.
He's evolved into a balanced point guard from an inefficient combo since joining Notre Dame back in 2011.
At 22 years old (23 by the start of next season), I'm not sure how high Grant's stock will continue to soar, but he seems firmly cemented into the first-round conversation. And that's something nobody would have guessed was possible just a few months ago.
Justin Anderson, Virginia: 6'6", SG/SF, Junior
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Having shot 30.3 percent from downtown as a freshman and 29.4 percent as a sophomore, Justin Anderson's transformation into a sniper really came out of nowhere.
He's hit 46 of his first 92 attempts from behind the arc, good for 50 percent and 2.2 made threes per game.
Not much has changed with regard to the rest of his offensive attack. Rarely do you see Anderson in position to create his own shot. But he's nearly doubled his scoring average to 13.9 points playing the same off-ball role as a cutter and spot-up shooter.
Coming into the season, Anderson's strengths revolved around his athleticism, strength and defensive activity level—not offense. Now he looks like a legitimate three-and-D NBA prospect with high-end role-player potential.
Honorable Mention: Robert Upshaw, 7'0", C
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Washington's basketball program recently dismissed Robert Upshaw; it's the second school where he's failed drug tests, according to ESPN.com's Jeff Goodman, in addition to Fresno State in 2012-13.
But this time, he was at least able to make one heck of an NBA pitch before getting the boot.
Upshaw was leading the country in shot-blocking by a fairly wide margin, averaging 4.5 in less than 25 minutes a game.
At 7'0", 250 pounds with long arms, he certainly has the look of an NBA rim protector. He also showcased timing and footwork. Upshaw covered a ton of defensive ground—he blocked 20 shots at the rim, 59 two-pointers away from it and five three-pointers, according to Hoop-Math.
Outside of defense, he controlled the glass by averaging 8.2 rebounds, or 13.1 per 40 minutes. And though he isn't the most threatening one-on-one scorer, Upshaw showed he can separate into jump hooks, as well as provide guards with a monster finishing target around the rim.
At this point, his best bet could be joining the D-League and getting a new coaching staff to vouch for him—because selling NBA teams on his character will be his greatest challenge.
Still, you have to think there will be one general manager out there willing to gamble.
He'll enter the draft with bright red flags, but having dominated defensively at Washington, talent doesn't appear to be one of them.
All recruiting information comes via 247Sports.com.
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