Average Draft Position Watch: Rising Running Backs

With the NFL season quickly approaching, just about every eager fantasy football owner is starving for knowledge and I am here to oblige. Leading up to Week One of the regular season, I will be tackling the weekly running back risers and fallers for ADP (Average Draft Position). I will be using ESPN live draft ADP feature to fill everyone in on which running backs are increasing and decreasing in value as the preseason progresses.

To get things started we will take a look at the Top Five risers for the week. The list includes Justin Fargas (+10.2), Jamaal Charles (+9.4), LeSean McCoy (+4.6), Pierre Thomas (+2.3) and LenDale White (+2.2). I will be breaking down these players and giving the reasoning of why I believe or don’t believe that the movement in ADP is justifiable.

1. Justin Fargas (Oakland Raiders) – Entering his seventh season in the NFL, all spent with the Oakland Raiders, Justin Fargas (+10.2 ADP) enters the year sitting behind Darren McFadden and possibly even Michael Bush on the depth charts.

Fargas’ 10-slot jump to the 159.8 draft position this past week is kind of head scratching as not only is he dealing with a hip issue, but there are only so many carries to go around.

Unless fantasy players across the world expect Fargas’ blocking skills to earn him extra playing time during the year, there really is no justifying the jump. Fargas remains a running back that should only be taken as a flyer with a late round pick in deeper leagues.

2. Jamaal Charles (Kansas City Chiefs) – Ironically, Jamaal Charles (+ 9.4 ADP) is being drafted behind Justin Fargas on an average in ESPN leagues, going 160.6 overall this past week. While Fargas’ rise doesn’t make much sense, I really believe that Charles is going to have some solid fantasy value in 2009 and holds a lot of the word “potential” in him.

Entering the year he will be playing behind Larry Johnson, with the role of being the Kansas City Chiefs third down back. If Johnson struggles at all this year, look for Charles to be worked more into the offense. This is a running back definitely worth gambling on as your fourth or fifth back on your team.

3. LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia Eagles) – LeSean McCoy (+4.6 ADP) is a rookie that I am really excited about this year. Even with Brian Westbrook sitting there ahead of him on the depth charts, McCoy is expected to see a fair share of the offense this year.

He has been going roughly at the 113.4 draft position in ESPN leagues, a tad too low if you ask me. If Westbrook is healthy than McCoy is no more than a solid RB3/RB4 on your roster, but if Westbrook is out McCoy’s value jumps.

If you burn an early draft pick on Westbrook consider McCoy a must-have handcuff.  I am not a strong believer in handcuffing, but this is one instance in which I sincerely believe that it should be done.

4. Pierre Thomas (New Orleans Saints) – First thought to be a running back who will share time with Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas (+2.3 ADP) has been nothing less than awesome during training camp, where as Bush still has been experiencing knee issues. If Thomas continues to impress, his season of yester-year may not turn into a fabrication of a career year after all.

He has been getting drafted as the 40th player off the board in ESPN leagues. Look for that to continue to rise as he continues to excel in camp.

5. LenDale White (Tennessee Titans) – Heading into 2009 LenDale White (+2.2 ADP) looks to once again be the Tennessee Titans goal-line back. After punching in 15 touchdowns in 2008 it’s hard to find ways for White to improve his game for this year. But he did.

White decided to give up partying and focus more on his football physique. That is good news as it will lessen the chance of White returning to a running back with very little value. His mild jump in his overall draft position to No. 60 overall during the past week is proof that fantasy football players are believing that a repeat year could be in the works.

I am starting to think along those lines as well.
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