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New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski (87) makes a catch before the NFL football AFC Championship game between the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts Sunday, Jan. 18, 2015, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)
New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski (87) makes a catch before the NFL football AFC Championship game between the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts Sunday, Jan. 18, 2015, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)Elise Amendola/Associated Press

Super Bowl Prop Bets 2015: Box Score Game Odds and Score Prediction

Sean ODonnellJan 31, 2015

The Super Bowl may be the year's most captivating sporting event for NFL enthusiasts, but it's also one of the most lucrative for bettors.

Due to the game's extremely high level of popularity, Vegas oddsmakers appease the masses by creating intriguing prop bets based on all aspects of the game. Some of these bets are as simple as which team will score first; however, others are a bit more exotic—one of this year's props is based on guessing the color of halftime performer Katy Perry's hair.

With all due respect to Ms. Perry, let's go ahead and focus on the former here.

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Predicting the Super Bowl is half the fun leading up to the big game, so let's take a look at the prop bets that involve the contest's scores and follow those predictions up with a guess at the final score and if the New England Patriots or Seattle Seahawks will ultimately hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

Notable Super Bowl Prop Bets

Team to score firstNE (-115), SEA (-115)Patriots
Team to score lastNE (-115), SEA (-115)Seahawks
Type of first scoreTD (-165), FG or SFTY (+135)Touchdown
Patriots' total pointsOver/Under 24.5Under
Seahawks' total pointsOver/Under 24.5Over
Total touchdowns in gameOver/Under 5.5Over
Total field goals in gameOver/Under 3.5Under
Will game go to overtime?Yes (+800), No (-1,600)No

All prop bets courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of January 31.

Game Odds (via Odds Shark):

  • Over/Under: 47.5
  • Spread: Patriots -1

Score Prediction

Looking at this game at face value, it's pretty easy to think the score will stay under due to two very good defenses facing off. After all, Seattle finished the regular season with the league's top-ranked unit, and New England's defense is coming off a lights-out performance against the Indianapolis Colts.

Still, before you go and place your bets, keep this in mind: Both the Seahawks and Patriots have an offensive strength that will prove to be problematic for the opposing defense.

For Seattle, the strength is quarterback Russell Wilson and running back Marshawn Lynch. The Seahawks boast the league's best rushing offense thanks to the efforts of both players, as they combined for a total of 2,155 yards and 19 touchdowns during the 2014 regular season.

Lynch is one of the league's toughest runners, and he only gets better with more carries. During the NFC Championship Game against the Green Bay Packers, Seattle kept feeding the ball-carrier, and he wound up carrying 25 times for 157 yards and a touchdown while averaging 6.3 yards per carry.

Here's a look at what's coming the Patriots' way, via ESPN Stats & Info:

Wilson is a tremendous dual-threat quarterback. He makes smart decisions in the backfield and has an elusiveness that seems unmatched in today's NFL. His ability to ad lib and make something out of nothing is spectacular, and his vision in the open field is great, leading to his average of 7.2 yards per carry during the regular season.

While New England was certainly stout against the run in 2014, finishing the regular season ranked ninth in that category, the team has taken a step backward in the playoffs. Baltimore Ravens running back Justin Forsett rushed for 129 yards in the divisional round, averaging 5.4 yards per carry along the way. Afterward, Colts running back Daniel Herron managed an average of 5.1 yards per carry against New England.

That's not a good team trend with Lynch and Wilson next up on the slate.

If New England is going to score points, it will be on the arm of Tom Brady and the dominance of tight end Rob Gronkowski. This duo hooked up 82 times for 1,124 yards and 12 touchdowns during the regular season, and they kept up the trend in the playoffs, connecting on two scores in two games.

The Seahawks have an incredibly strong defense, but the team's Achilles' heel has been opposing tight ends. Seattle allowed 11 touchdown catches to the position during the regular season, the third most in the league, according to ESPN Stats & Info:

Brady is known for his intelligence in the pocket, routinely making smart decisions with the football. Combined with the unorthodox-yet-effective play-calling of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, expect the Patriots to find a way to feed Gronkowski and give Seattle's defense fits.

Based on this information, the prediction here is the game's final score will go over the 47.5-point mark. As far as the winner goes, they say defense wins championships and, right now, the better unit is Seattle. The Seahawks won last year's big game with stellar defensive play, and they'll do just enough to win it again in 2015.

Prediction: Seahawks 27, Patriots 24

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