Handicapping the St. Louis Rams in 2009

2009 St. Louis Rams Predictions

Preview courtesy of Ted Sevransky, An award-winning professional football handicapper featured on Touthouse.com. If you are interested in football betting this season, be sure to buy Ted Sevransky’s football picks at Touthouse.com

Overview

There’s nowhere to go but up for the St Louis Rams.  From a power rating perspective, this team was every bit as bad as the 0-16 Lions last year, and their five combined wins in ’07 and ’08 ranks dead last among the 32 NFL teams.  The Rams' last winning season and last playoff berth both came back in 2003.

We saw a complete overhaul of the roster, the coaching staff and the front office in the offseason.  Longtime co-presidents John Shaw and Jay Zygmunt stepped down.  Billy Devaney was promoted to general manager and Kevin Demoff was hired as the new executive VP of football operations.  Devaney hired the offseason’s most hyped coaching prospect, bringing in former Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to call the shots for St Louis in 2009.  Spagnuolo and Devaney oversaw a major veteran purge in the offseason—of the 20 players aged 30 or higher that finished the season on the Rams' roster (or on injured reserve) last December, only six return.

The Rams coaching staff is arguably the most inexperienced staff in the league.  Spagnuolo is in his first head coaching gig.  Former Eagles quarterbacks coach Pat Shurmur gets his first gig as an offensive coordinator this year.  Former Panthers linebackers coach Ken Flajole gets his first opportunity to call the plays as the defensive coordinator.  Even special teams coach Tom McMahon is running those units for the first time in his career.  Of the Rams 18 coaches, only two faces remain from last year—offensive line coach Steve Loney and his assistant line coach Art Valero.

Offense

Since signing a six-year, $65 million contract prior to the 2007 season, quarterback Marc Bulger has ranked among the worst signal callers in the NFL.  Bulger’s 71.4 QB rating last year ranked dead last among NFL QBs with at least 250 pass attempts.  In ’07, Bulger’s 70.3 QB rating ranked dead last among NFL QBs with at least 200 pass attempts.  To say that the Rams haven’t gotten much value from their investment in Bulger is something of an understatement.

Bulger’s woes aren’t all of his own making.  The Rams offensive line has been truly abysmal in recent years.  St. Louis upgraded the unit in the offseason, acquiring coveted free agent center Jason Brown from the Ravens while drafting Jason Smith out of Baylor with the No. 2 overall draft pick.  Bulger’s receivers haven’t been very good either.  The recent training camp injury to speedster Donnie Avery puts even more pressure on unproven youngsters like Keenan Burton, Derek Stanley and Laurent Robinson to produce.  If Stephen Jackson can stay healthy and provide a steady running attack behind new blocking fullback Mike Karney, Bulger’s numbers should improve.  If Jackson can’t stay healthy again, Bulger’s fifth offensive coordinator (Shurmer) is likely to go shopping for a new quarterback next offseason.

Defense

The Rams finished 28th in total defense last year, 29th against the run and 31st in the NFL in points allowed.  The defense gave up 30 or more points on nine separate occasions, and the Rams' two wins came in two of the four games all year that the defense allowed less than 20 points.  This team has invested heavily on the defensive side of the football in recent drafts, with young linemen Adam Carriker, Clifton Ryan and Chris Long anchoring the line and cornerbacks Ron Bartell and Tye Hill anchoring the secondary.  This year’s D will rely heavily on rookies like LB James Laurinaitis, (Ohio State), CB Bradley Fletcher (Iowa) and DT Dorell Scott (Clemson) on a stop unit that looks completely devoid of quality depth.

Schedule

Here’s an excerpt from what I wrote last year, supporting a play on the Rams Under 6.5 wins:

"The number that stands out to me for St Louis is 0-10.  That’s head coach Scott Linehan’s SU record against opponents with winning records during his two years with the Rams since upsetting the Broncos in his very first game on the job.  Then we look at the Rams schedule to start the season.  @ Philadelphia, New York Giants, @ Seattle, Buffalo, @ Washington, Dallas, @ New England, Arizona, @ New York Jets.  Every one of those teams could (and perhaps should) have a winning record this year.  Every one of those teams is lined at 7.5 wins or higher—there isn’t a patsy in the bunch. The Rams realistically could be underdogs in every single one of their first nine games."

The Rams were underdogs in every one of those nine games to open the season last year.  In eight of those games, St. Louis was an underdog of more than a touchdown, and they were dogs of less than a touchdown only three times all year.  My power rating numbers show that St Louis faced one of the five toughest schedules in the league in 2008.  This year, it’s not quite as bad, as the Rams enter the season facing a "middle of the pack" slate.  Four of their first five road games fall into the "potentially winnable" category and the NFC West is unquestionably the weakest division in all of football.  The Rams season win total of 5.5 looks achievable against this downgraded schedule, but don’t expect any sort of "worst to first" turnaround or, even a .500 record.