UFC 183 Bold Predictions: Is Anderson Silva a Suicide Mission for Nick Diaz?

Funny thing about these mixed weight "superfights."

They always sound great in theory.

Maybe when you're just spitballing ideas over a couple cold ones at the local watering hole, weight classes seem negotiable. Perhaps when you're trying to dream up a bestselling pay-per-view event on the whiteboard at Zuffa LLC world headquarters, the rules feel like they were made to be bent.

A couple days out from actually watching welterweight Nick Diaz fight middleweight legend Anderson Silva at UFC 183, however, nobody could blame you if you're having second thoughts. Will this get ugly? Is this really something we all want to watch? Both reasonable questions.

Here to supply the answers—and then some—are Bleacher Report lead writers Chad Dundas (that's me) and Jonathan Snowden. Luckily for them, they already know what will happen this weekend in Las Vegas. Luckily for you, they're willing to share.

The boldest of bold predictions await. Read on, if you dare.

Prediction: Anderson Silva Knocks out Nick Diaz in Under 3 Minutes.

David Becker/Associated Press

Chad

I probably wasted a lot of breath Wednesday laying out my belief that Nick Diaz should at least try to wrestle with Anderson Silva. I stand by my reasoning—that Diaz waging a typical Nick Diaz fight against Silva will be akin to a suicide mission—even as I understand that Diaz only really has one speed.

Diaz has prodigious submission skills, but wrestling ain’t his style. Fighting smart ain’t his style. Bucking his self-imposed status quo as everybody’s favorite malcontent ain’t his style.

So I guess I expect Diaz to attempt to slug it out with the greatest counterstriker our sports has ever seen...and then I expect him to get knocked out, like, super-fast.

It makes me a little sad to think about it, but give me Silva by quick-and-easy TKO.

Jon? You got anything to cheer me up?

Jonathan

Well, I certainly have had similarly dark thoughts. But a lot of smart people have pointed out that the fight might not be as unwinnable for Diaz as we might think.

The truth is, the Anderson Silva we all picture in our heads is the 2008 wrecking machine, the guy who made Chris Leben and Forrest Griffin look like clowns. That guy doesn't exist anymore.

Today, Anderson Silva is just a guy trying to piece his shattered career, and his shattered leg, back together. He's 39. His kids are running around UFC Embedded videos looking like full-grown men for God's sake.

I won't go so far as to predict a Diaz win. But I will say this: Silva better hope he knocks Diaz out quickly. If not, Diaz can make 25 minutes feel like a long time. And Old Man Silva may not have 25 minutes in him.

Prediction: Joe Lauzon Steals the Show Because That's What Joe Lauzon Does

Steve Yeater/Associated Press

Jonathan

In many ways, this isn't just a one-fight show. It's a one-fighter show.

Watch the ads for UFC 183, spammed far and wide across cable television this week, and you'll be hard-pressed to even hear Nick Diaz's name. While UFC may have produced some Diaz spots and aired them on internal programming, they certainly aren't being played regularly on television. When you see a UFC 183 commercial on the old boob tube, it's all Silva, all the time.

Crazy, right?

Digressions aside, there's not much going on at UFC 183. Not much save the human highlight reel by the name of Joe Lauzon.

It's pretty clear at this point that Lauzon (24-9) is never going to be the UFC champion. Equally clear? Fans love him anyway.

And what's not to love? The man has 13 "of the night" superlatives, making him the most exciting fighter in UFC history. That's not hyperbole Chad. That's statistics-driven fact.

Chad

I love when we get to the just-stating-facts portion of Bold Predictions. There no denying that Lauzon is an exciting fighter with a nose for the upset and a penchant for padding his pockets with incentive-based bonus money.

If Lauzon is going to steal the show at UFC 183, however, he'll have a perfectly willing dance partner in Al Iaquinta. The 27-year-old New Yorker appeared to come into his own with back-to-back TKO victories during 2014. Iaquinta is no slouch in the excitement department, and that could make this pairing the odds-on favorite for Fight of the Night.

If Iaquinta can figure a way to keep Lauzon off him and stay vertical, I think he'll punch his way to a unanimous-decision win. If not, it could reveal that his Achilles heel is still submission defense, and Lauzon could go home $50,000 richer.

Prediction: Kelvin Gastelum Becomes a (Engage Caps Lock) GUY at Welterweight

Christian Palma/Associated Press

Chad

The first time you see Kelvin Gastelum—with his flat-top haircut, square jaw and fairly unassuming gaze—he just looks like an average guy.

Then you see him fight, and you realize maybe he’s a capital “G” Guy in the new UFC welterweight division.

After he beats Tyron Woodley on Saturday at UFC 183, there will be no denying that the 23-year-old Gastelum has become a bona fide, all-caps GUY at 170-pounds.

The welterweight Top 5 is a pretty crowded elevator right now, with better-known fighters like Rory MacDonald, Johny Hendricks and Hector Lombard all hoping to get off on the championship floor before Gastelum gets his chance. But if he beats Woodley to advance his record to 11-0 (6-0 UFC), there won’t be much room to ignore him any longer.

After Woodley, look for Gastelum to tangle with one of the division’s long-standing and high-profile contenders later this year. A returning Carlos Condit, perhaps?

Jonathan

Kelvin Gastelum wasn't supposed to beat Josh Samman in the semi-finals of The Ultimate Fighter's 17th season. Yet there he was, securing a rear-naked choke in the first round to proceed to the finals.

Once there, he certainly wasn't expected to compete with Uriah Hall, a man all but crowned champion before the first bell rang. Seventeen minutes later, he was holding that ridiculous glass trophy and poor Dana White was trying his best to hide the sadness in his eyes.

Gastelum's whole career has been a series of fights he's not supposed to win. Finally, here against Woodley, he's the slight favorite. I think that bodes ill for the young man. At UFC 183, Gastelum will grasp something every fighter needs in order to have a truly great career—he'll learn how to lose.

Prediction: Miesha Tate Ushers Sara McMann Right out of the UFC

Reinhold Matay/Associated Press

Jonathan

We all assume that, because she challenged Ronda Rousey for the bantamweight title, Sara McMann must be one of the best fighters in her weight class.

That's the way it's supposed to work, right?

In its ideal form, prizefighting is a meritocracy. The best fighters reach contention. The best of the best hold the belt.

It is known.

The thing is, Chad, the women's divisions are so new that we haven't quite sorted the wheat from the chaff. We assume that McMann is an elite fighter because she fought for a championship and because she is undefeated in eight fights against women not named Rousey.

But what if that doesn't matter so much?

Watching her on tape, however, reveals another, different truth—she's just not very good yet. Her wrestling, of course, is fantastic. As an Olympic medalist, you'd expect nothing less. But outside of that one dimension, she just doesn't offer much of note.

I thought she rightfully lost two decisions (to Shanya Baszler and Lauren Murphy) that were gifted to her instead. The third time, however, won't be the charm. Miesha Tate is better in too many areas. This will be a close fight. But it will be Tate who takes another step closer to a rematch with Rousey.

Chad

To me, the biggest puzzler is how this fight wound up as UFC 183's "featured prelim" (a special name for a thing that does not really exist) on Fox Sports 1, while bouts like Thales Leites vs. Tim Boetsch and Jordan Mein vs. Thiago Alves snuck onto the main pay-per-view card. Surely, the Nos. 2 and 3 135-pounders in the UFC deserved better than that.

You're right that the fight company's two women's weight classes are so new that in many ways we're still trying to get our bearings. While I don't necessarily disagree, either, with your views on McMann, I would merely point out that most of the same things can be said about Tate.

We assume she's elite because she's been painted as Rousey's primary rival, and her status as the division's second-biggest star has given her frequent opportunities for exposure. But her actual UFC resume? Maybe not that impressive.

Remember, she needed an injury to Cat Zingano to even nab the cherry coaching spot opposite Rousey on season 18 of The Ultimate Fighter. All told, Tate is just 2-2 in the Octagon and required a controversial decision over Liz Carmouche and a bit of showcase matchmaking against Rin Nakai to get there.

McMann's future may be equally mysterious, but her Olympic wrestling should still give her an edge in this fight. Due to an unfortunate early stoppage at UFC 170, we may never get to find out how she might actually fare against Rousey, but she'll grapple victory away from the overmatched Tate here.