Is the Ball Really in Floyd's Court to Make Mayweather vs. Pacquiao Happen?

It’s getting harder than ever to sort fact from fiction in the ever-evolving Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao soap opera.

According to Sky Sports, Pacquiao still believes there is an 80 percent chance the megafight will happen in 2015. Should you?

Pacquiao’s camp has gone out of its way to say its side is onboard and the hold-up is Mayweather.

Two weeks ago, Top Rank founder and CEO Bob Arum told The Associated Press’ Tim Dahlberg (h/t Yahoo Sports) that Pacquiao had agreed to all of Mayweather’s terms.

“We're waiting for Mayweather to sign a document saying, 'Yeah,'” Arum told Dahlberg.

Top Rank vice president Carl Moretti indicated the very same to ESPN.com’s Dan Rafael.

"Top Rank and Manny have agreed to the terms on our side,” Moretti told Rafael. I don't know about the other side.”

Rob Latour/Associated Press/Associated Press

Moreover, news of secret meetings between HBO and Showtime, the two television giants who would also have to come to terms to jointly telecast a fight between fighters signed exclusively to each (Pacquiao to HBO and Mayweather to Showtime) was leaked to the media as evidence of real progress finally being made between the two camps.

But recent events have called everything into question.

First, Showtime Sports’ Stephen Espinoza publicly berated Arum for propagating a false narrative to the media.

In an interview with Fight Hype’s Ben Thompson, Espinoza said talks had not progressed to the point of anyone signing anything:

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To get to the specifics, Floyd isn't holding anything up. No one is waiting on Floyd to rubber stamp or sign anything. Arum isn't being truthful on this and he knows it. There is no contract that is awaiting Floyd's signature and Bob Arum knows that.

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Moreover, Espinoza questioned Arum’s motives for continuing the narrative despite the rumored gag order on public negotiations:

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A lot of the stuff that has come out from Arum is baffling to us. I can only guess as to what his motives may be. Maybe he thinks that this is creating some public pressure on Floyd to get the deal done, but the irony of the whole thing is no one needs to pressure Floyd. Floyd has wanted this all along. If people saw the terms that have been negotiated, it's clear Floyd wants to make a deal. He doesn't need this PR campaign to convince him that he needs to make the deal. He wants to do it for himself, for the fans, for the sport of boxing, and no one needs to pressure him into making that fight. Then you start to wonder if someone is consistently mischaracterizing the negotiations and trying to demean the other side, is that person really trying to make a deal? Someone who's trying to make a deal doesn't go out and publicly misrepresent what's going on with the negotiations. It's a complete mystery to us.

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Host of HBO boxing telecasts, Jim Lampley, also told EsNews' Elie Seckbach on Saturday that he expects Mayweather to fight Miguel Cotto on May 2 instead of Pacquiao, and one might get the impression the proposed Mayweather-Pacquiao megafight is slipping into oblivion yet again.

Isaac Brekken/Associated Press

So who should we believe? Is Arum telling the truth? Is Espinoza? Has Pacquiao signed off on all of Mayweather’s terms?

Are we all just waiting on Mayweather to make the fight?

The Boxing Tribune’s Paul Magno wonders is Arum and company are intentionally sabotaging negotiations for the fight:

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Arum has done quite well pushing the Pacquiao product for five years against “in house” competition without the risk of a Mayweather. Now, with big money still on the table in Macau, where he has a handshake deal with Ed Tracy, president and chief executive of Sands China (in charge of overseeing the Venetian Macau), to deliver at least two of Manny’s next four fights to the Asian gaming capital, the need for risk aversion is greater than ever.

And although the one-shot purse for a Mayweather fight will be huge, it’s not in Arum’s best business interest to risk cashing out on Pacquiao just yet. The Filipino icon is the key figure in establishing a long-term, healthy boxing business in Macau, where the money is ever-flowing, the taxes are nil, and regulation is a wink of the eye.

It’s not unreasonable to pass up on a $100 million single fight purse when a loss could risk a possible billion dollar Asia-based empire for Arum and company.

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Whatever the case, even while the two sides have traded barbs over the past few weeks through the media and even as Pacquiao’s self-imposed end-of-the-month deadline approaches for the fight to be made, the Los Angeles Times' Lance Purgmire reports talks between the two camps are ongoing:

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Told that things are continuing to progress with @MannyPacquiao @FloydMayweather talks...(lame update but people asking...)

— Lance Pugmire (@latimespugmire) January 27, 2015"

Mayweather might not yet have anything in front of him to sign as Arum claims, but as the biggest star in boxing, one who consistently opines on being both “the best ever” as well as the most powerful figure in boxing, it would probably behoove him to do everything in his power to make certain he does soon.

Because if the whole thing is simply another Mayweather vs. Pacquiao public relations game, as suggested by MLive.com’s David Mayo, then it’s also clear by now that Top Rank is an opponent he can’t beat at it.

Mayweather’s best chance against Pacquiao is in the ring.

Follow @KelseyMcCarson