Preview and Prediction for Tiger Woods at the 2015 Waste Management Phoenix Open
It's going to be a wild week in Arizona: Tiger Woods is teeing it up at the Waste Management Phoenix Open for the first time since 2001, and there's a little football game being played in the area, too.
Judging from the former world No. 1's demeanor in his Tuesday press conference, he's feeling pretty good heading into the Greenest Show on Grass.
Thursday, Woods tees off at 12:07 p.m. local time (2:07 p.m. ET) with Patrick Reed and Jordan Spieth. For his second round, Woods is off with the same pair at 7:57 a.m. (9:57 a.m. ET).
What can we look forward to from the 79-time PGA Tour winner at TPC Scottsdale?
Where Tiger Stands Heading into Phoenix
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It's hard to believe Tiger Woods has fallen all the way to 47th in the Official World Golf Ranking. Indeed, at this time last year, Woods was ranked first in the world, which is where he's spent the better part of the last two decades.
Unfortunately, 2014 was a lost year for the 14-time major winner. He played just seven tournaments during the 2013-2014 season and none of them particularly well. Back surgery following the WGC-Cadillac Championship put him out of commission for nearly four months.
After his return, Woods had letters for finishes, which is never good. MC: Quicken Loans National. WD: WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. MC: PGA Championship.
Another four-month layoff followed, and Woods was rusty in his return to competition at the Hero World Challenge, where he finished last in the limited field. Still, the golfer appeared more explosive and free-swinging with a back-to-basics swing he and "swing consultant" Chris Como had been working on.
Woods enters the Waste Management Phoenix Open as healthy as he's been in years, with more swing speed than he's had in a decade and with the clock ticking in his pursuit of Jack Nicklaus' major record.
History at TPC Scottsdale
2 of 7Any discussion of Tiger Woods' past play at TPC Scottsdale has to include the clip above: Woods' 1997 hole-in-one at the then-less-carnivalesque 16th hole.
Asked about what he remembered about the ace, Woods said, "I think I broke Fluff's hand (on the high-five)...Then old school, back in the day, raise the roof. And on top of that, smelling and hearing the beer hit behind me," per Fox Sports (h/t Golfweek).
The other incident of note at TPC Scottsdale in Woods' three efforts there: Bouldergate. Woods famously enlisted the help of his sizable gallery to move a boulder obstructing his approach on the par-five 13th hole that was frowned upon but still technically within the rules of the game.
As Sam Weinman of Golf Digest wrote of the incident:
"There are all the obvious reasons why it's good to be Tiger Woods -- oodles of cash, 79 tour wins, free shoes from Nike. And then there are the less obvious ones -- like if you happen to land a tee shot behind a boulder, you can easily recruit enough spectators to move the boulder for you.
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In his three previous starts at TPC Scottsdale, Woods finished T18 in 1997, third in 1999 and T5 in 2001. Woods has posted just two over-par scores in his 12 competitive rounds played at the Arizona track.
Top Storylines Surrounding Tiger in 2015
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Entering the Phoenix Open, there are a number of Woods-related storylines out there (no, Toothgate doesn't count). Woods is also gaming Nike's new Vapor woods and irons, but as he didn't seem to have any trouble with the equipment at the Hero World Challenge and spent most of last year practicing with the clubs, there shouldn't be any issues.
Major quest, Father Time
Here are two facts you've likely heard enough of: Woods is now 39 years old. Jack Nicklaus won his final major at 46. Assuming Woods has roughly the same degree of longevity as the Golden Bear, one thing is clear: He's running out of time.
Health
Woods has dealt with a spate of injuries in his near-20-year career. If you need a refresher, check out Golf Digest's list.
El Tigre is coming off a back injury, surgery and a second back injury last season. Assuming he has no further issues in that department, his relative health is a huge story, as that precious quality is the foundation for winning golf.
Goodbye Sean Foley, Hello Chris Como
Following Woods' decision to part ways with Sean Foley, Golf Channel analyst Brandel Chamblee tweeted: "Tiger is more upright and his swing is longer. Both good signs."
The analyst likes what he sees from Woods. Will what Chamblee is seeing (Woods' swing) win the golfer majors?
That remains to be seen.
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What's on the Line in Phoenix?
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There are basically two perspectives on the significance of this week for Tiger Woods.
It means a lot
Arguments from this perspective center around the feeling that Woods, after a period of injury and doubt, needs to set the tone at the comparatively easy TPC Scottsdale.
Further, this camp feels Woods must banish questions about his game (particularly his short game) that cropped up while he was laying sod in the course of his last-place finish at the Hero World Challenge.
It means nothing
In the opposite camp, those who are looking ahead to the Farmers Insurance Open next week view that as the real litmus test of the state of Woods' game. Torrey Pines, where TW has won nine times, will really let us know how well Tiger is grooving his swing as we begin the slow march toward Augusta.
Those in this camp argue that the Greenest Show on Grass is merely a tuneup for the Farmers Insurance Open, which in turn is a brick in the road of Woods' Masters preparation.
Tiger Will Play Well If...
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As Tiger Woods' driver goes, so goes his game. Woods feels good about his driver entering the tournament and said as much in his Tuesday press conference.
He's also hitting the ball farther—a lot farther, per Bob Harig of ESPN.com: "My driving has come around a lot faster. I'm a lot longer than I thought I ever could be again. My speed is way back up, and that's fun. I'm touching numbers that I did 15 years ago, so that's cool."
And regarding the bevy of chunked pitches Woods hit at the Hero World Challenge? He's not concerned.
"I was caught between techniques, between my old release pattern and body movement when I was working with Sean (Foley) and then my new release pattern. We had to basically just hit thousands upon thousands upon thousands of chips to get (the old technique) out of there."
Assuming Woods is long and relatively straight off the tee and doesn't shoot himself in the foot around the greens, he's had enough practice time with Como to put together four decent rounds.
Tiger Will Play Poorly If...
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Conversely, if Woods struggles off the tee, he could find himself in some unpleasant desert situations. And playing from the sand and cacti can get old pretty quick.
Further, if the time he's spent convalescing following the flu bug that overtook him around the time of the Hero World Challenge didn't allow him to practice as much as he'd like, he could be rusty, which means a sloppy short game and poor distance control.
Woods also isn't comfortable with the speed of the greens at TPC Scottsdale, and he said as much Tuesday, per Steve DiMeglio of USA Today:
"I need to work a little bit here on getting the speed of these greens, because you assume hard greens with a lot of spring to them are going to be fast, but they're not fast. They spring but they putt slow. So I need to do some work to try to overcome the mental hurdle."
The Stanford alum has historically had some difficulty on slower greens. If he doesn't figure things out, he'll struggle to get the ball in the hole.
Prediction
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Let's be frank: Tiger Woods isn't winning this thing.
Woods is working on all facets of his game (perhaps not putting) with a new instructor, has dropped a bunch of weight due to illness, may not have practiced a ton, is playing a venue he hasn't seen in a decade and certainly didn't give any indication he was ready to win a PGA Tour event when he teed it up a month ago at the Hero World Challenge.
Still, he's never shot worse than 73 at TPC Scottsdale and has shot 65 twice. We could see some rainy, windy conditions Friday and Saturday, which Woods knows how to manage, so that could act to his advantage.
Rob Bolton, PGATour.com's fantasy guru, goes 15-deep with his picks and doesn't include Mr. Woods. Likewise, Will Gray of Golf Channel goes 10-deep.
So, the "experts" don't like Woods' chances of a top-10 finish.
If he finishes in the top 25 or top 30, Woods will have done well, especially considering his last-place finish in his most recent start. Look for him to finish in the eight- to 10-under range.
All stats via PGATour.com
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