Stock Up, Stock Down for Boxing's Top Stars
It's a sign of boxing's overall good health that even as the stock for some of it's biggest stars is flatlining or in decline, many more younger stars are on the upswing. It means that even the more casual fans are starting to take notice of the sport's young lions.
As the first month of 2015 approaches its end, boxing's overall stock is clearly on the way up. Thanks to the negotiations of Al Haymon, it's even set to return to network television.
The superfight between Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather may never happen. But fans are increasingly realizing that there is a lot more out there to get excited about.
Gennady Golovkin: Steadily Trending Upward
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Gennady Golovkin has emerged in the past few years as one of the sport's very hottest stars. The undefeated WBA middleweight champion has now knocked out 18 straight opponents.
So long as he remains the most avoided fighter in the sport, there is an artificial cap on how high his stock can rise. Still, he's continuing to climb.
Next up for GGG is a date with tough British contender Martin Murray. Murray lost a very close decision to recent middleweight champion Sergio Martinez in 2013. If the referee had properly credited Murray with a knockdown that was instead ruled a slip, he'd have topped Martinez on my card.
If nothing else, Murray will give Golovkin yet another chance to demonstrate that he's clearly the boss of the division.
Sergey Kovalev: Rising Quickly
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Sergey Kovalev became one of the sport's fastest-rising stars last October, when he unified three of four world titles at light heavyweight by defeating Bernard Hopkins. After establishing himself as a monster puncher in recent years, Kovalev fought a tactically near-perfect fight against a legend to win a unanimous decision, 120-108, on all three cards.
The fight that would send Kovalev's stock into the stratosphere is a final unification bout with WBC and lineal champion Adonis Stevenson. But so far, Superman has been reluctant to make that fight.
Meanwhile, Kovalev has the next best thing lined up for March: a showdown with former champion Jean Pascal in Stevenson's hometown of Montreal. This fight will give Kovalev a chance to notch another exciting win and will likely leave even Stevenson's most loyal fans calling him out to face Kovalev.
Nicholas Walters: Climbing with a Bullet
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Nicholas Walters passed over from undefeated prospect to full-blown star in 2014. Last year, the explosive Jamaican fighter became a legend killer.
In May, Walters knocked out multiple-division world champion Vic Darchinyan in five rounds. In October, he battered Nonito Donaire, stopping him in Round 6 and seizing the WBA featherweight title.
Darchinyan and Donaire are both smaller than Walters, and on the downside of their careers. Regardless, they are the kind of resume lines that push a young fighter to the head of the division.
Featherweight is one of the most talent-laden divisions in the sport right now, so the Axe Man should get some big-fight opportunities in 2015.
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Danny Garcia: Finally Turning Upward
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After becoming a major star in 2012 and 2013, Danny Garcia's stock tumbled last year. In April, he was lucky to escape with a majority decision against Mauricio Herrera.
But Herrera is a crafty veteran, and Garcia took too much criticism for that fight. It was a close bout that could have gone to either man.
What he didn't take too much criticism for was facing Rod Salka in August. That was insulting.
Garcia is the world champion at light welterweight, and Salka is an unranked lightweight. Salka is a credible professional, and in the eras when champions fought six or more times a year, a few fights against guys like Salka were acceptable.
When the champion fights only twice a year, it's not acceptable at all. Boxing fans aren't subscribing to Showtime so we can watch fighters at Garcia's level flatten fighters like Salka.
But 2015 looks to be a better year for Garcia. He's already scheduled to face Lamont Peterson as part of Al Haymon's exciting push to bring boxing back to network television.
Garcia is still a very young champion and still has plenty of time left to make up for an embarrassing 2014.
Terence Crawford: Steadily Trending Upward
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Terence Crawford was on just about everybody's short list for 2014 Fighter of the Year. In March, he went to Scotland and took the WBO lightweight title from Ricky Burns in the champ's own hometown. Crawford brought the belt back to his native Omaha, Nebraska, in June and turned in one of the year's top performances, stopping fellow unbeaten Yuriorkis Gamboa in Round 9.
Crawford ended his year with a shutout decision of tough veteran contender Raymundo Beltran. Don't expect to see Crawford at 135 pounds again; expect him to jump right into the mix at the top of the light welterweight class.
Crawford is a smart, technical boxer who has been able to rely on a bit of pop when he needs to. He's turned his home city into a boxing hot bed and is positioned to become one of boxing's next big, pound-for-pound stars.
Brandon Rios: Suddenly Spiking
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The anxiously anticipated Brandon Rios-Mike Alvarado rubber match didn't live up to expectations. Instead of a third war, Rios jumped all over Alvarado in the first round and forced his rival to quit on his stool following Round 3.
Alvarado had been through two more brutal fights against Ruslan Provodnikov and Juan Manuel Marquez since his last fight with Rios. He looked like a shot fighter.
So it's important not to read too much into Rios' victory. Still, the two-division champion showed better head movement and use of angles than ever before. He remained dangerous in close range.
Rios is just 28, with years of experience behind him now. If trainer Robert Garcia has truly managed to cultivate a defensive wrinkle or two into Rios' outside and middle-distance approach, he'll be a tough opponent for most welterweights.
I'm not prepared to predict another championship for Rios at 147 pounds. But I do expect to see him put on some exciting efforts in some big fights.
Deontay Wilder: Surging but Unpredictable
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I'm hardly prepared to declare Deontay Wilder the second coming of a young George Foreman. But you'd have to be a depressed cynic to completely dismiss the performance he turned in against Bermane Stiverne in January to capture the WBC heavyweight title.
Prior to that fight, skeptics had questioned how Wilder would stand up to a true heavyweight punch and/or an opponent who didn't crumble before his own power. Those questions were largely answered against Stiverne.
Wilder took some decent punches from a heavy hitter and didn't fold. He employed a great jab and lateral movement to box his way to a one-sided decision.
Nobody who truly understands the sport would seriously claim that anybody other than Wladimir Klitschko is the world champion at heavyweight. Still, it's exciting to once again have a U.S. fighter with any sort of claim to the heavyweight crown.
Even if Wilder's run at the top ends up being brief, he's already provided one of 2015's biggest moments.
Saul Alvarez: Steady and Ready to Climb
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Over the past few years, Saul Alvarez has emerged as one of the sport's biggest stars. In 2013, he graduated to pay-per-view, opposite Floyd Mayweather.
In 2014, he carried pay-per-view cards as the headliner. And although I had him losing in his split-decision win over Erislandy Lara last July, I think he deserves credit for even fighting such a tricky opponent when he had so many other options.
For most of the last few months of 2014, it looked inevitable that Canelo would face lineal and WBC middleweight champion Miguel Cotto in the spring. The fight made perfect sense. Both fighters have large numbers of passionate fans, and the way they matched up would have made for an exciting fight.
It could have been the biggest fight of the year. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like it will happen now. Instead, Alvarez will face hard-punching contender James Kirkland.
Alvarez-Kirkland cannot hope to be the event that Alvarez-Cotto would have been. Regardless, it should be a highly entertaining fight.
Kirkland is a rugged, come-forward fighter. He's a potentially dangerous opponent for Alvarez, but he will also give Alvarez the opportunity to put on a crowd-pleasing performance that pushes his stock to new heights.
Miguel Cotto: Peaking and Ready to Dip
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Miguel Cotto's stock was possibly at the highest point of his entire career last June when he stopped Sergio Martinez and captured the WBC and lineal middleweight belt. It made him the first four-divsion world champion from Puerto Rico in history.
But it was something of an artificial bump. Martinez was an extremely vulnerable champion. He was a 39-year-old fighter who relies heavily on athleticism. Martinez had been through multiple surgeries in recent years and had looked less than spectacular in recent fights.
Any true claim to the lineal title at middleweight should be defended against Gennady Golovkin. But Cotto had an easier route available that could have kept him just as hot. A fight between Cotto and young Mexican superstar Saul Alvarez might have been the biggest grossing fight of the year.
But now it appears that Cotto won't be fighting Canelo, either. What does seem likely is a rematch with Floyd Mayweather, who beat Cotto with relative ease in 2012.
That will make Cotto plenty of money, but it will send his stock tumbling with the fans.
Wladimir Klitschko: Steady, with Potential to Surge
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Wladimir Klitschko has often been under-appreciated in the United States. His 2013 clinch-fest with Alexander Povetkin sent his stock tumbling here.
But last November, Klitschko turned in a signature performance in dispatching undefeated contender Kubrat Pulev in just five rounds. Pulev was widely seen as Klitschko's biggest threat in years.
In April, the heavyweight champion will finally return to the United States to face unbeaten contender Bryant Jennings. Simply fighting in the U.S. again will push his stock up.
At 38, Klitschko looks as strong as ever. At the same time, the division as a whole has become more interesting in the past year or two. Deontay Wilder's victory this month to seize the WBC portion of the crown sets up a compelling fight down the line for Dr. Steelhammer.
Manny Pacquiao: Flatlining, in Danger of Sinking
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Just using the comment sections in my own articles as a gauge, it seems pretty clear that Floyd Mayweather is taking more heat than Manny Pacquiao for the fact that their long-anticipated showdown seems once more destined not to happen. Since defeating Chris Algieri last November, Pacquiao has been more vocal than ever before about his desire to face Mayweather.
But let's be clear about something. If Pacquiao really wanted to fight Mayweather—more than anything else in the world—then he definitely shouldn't have resigned with Top Rank Promotions last year.
Pacquiao is a big enough superstar to negotiate that fight without Bob Arum. With Bob Arum, negotiating it has remained essentially impossible, and Pacquiao had to have known that would be the case.
Without the Mayweather fight, Pacquiao is a stagnant stock in danger of a swift decline. Fighting Chris Algieri las November was ridiculous. Algieri is talented and has a ton of heart, but it was obvious that he was nowhere near ready for a boxer of Pacquiao's level, and there was absolutely no reason to even suspect he would be.
There's no fight out there for Pacquiao now that will do anything more for his legacy with the fans. Amir Khan's speed could present some problems for Pacquiao, but a win in that fight would be shrugged at by most U.S. fans.
A fight with Jessie Vargas does nothing but help Bob Arum and Top Rank potentially build up Vargas' stock.
Floyd Mayweather: Dropping for Now
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The recent round of wild speculation about a potential Floyd Mayweather-Manny Pacquiao fight appears to have once more lived up to the famous Shakespeare line: "Full of sound and fury, signifying nothing." Once more, a bunch of words got wasted on a fight that isn't going to happen.
And in this latest round of rhetorical warfare, Mayweather clearly lost, 10-8. More so than Pacquiao, he's the one who appears to be holding up the fight right now. More and more fans are coming around to the conclusion that "if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it must be a duck."
If Mayweather fights Miguel Cotto a second time, which now seems likely, it does give him the opportunity to collect a world title in another division. But the last fight between the two really wasn't close enough to justify a rematch, especially when the Pacquiao fight remains unmade.
Mayweather can talk all he wants about Pacquiao being a fighter whose stock is down, as he did to Showtime Sports. He's not wrong. But it only begs the question: Why not go ahead and fight him?
Because that's still the fight that the fans want to see.
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