Power Ranking Middleweight Contenders' Chances vs. Chris Weidman
We're about 18 months into the new era of middleweight champion Chris Weidman.
Ever since that historic night inside of the MGM Grand Garden Arena at UFC 162, the world has begun familiarizing itself with this new breed. He's the All-American and the best fighter at 185 pounds.
Two men have tried to pry the belt from his grasp. Two men have failed. A third man gets his chance at UFC 184 on Feb. 28, but whether Vitor Belfort has what it takes to dethrone the king is anybody's guess.
Whether any of the current crop of middleweight contenders has a legitimate chance is a viable question to ask, too. But let's not kid ourselves: Some guys holster tools to deny Weidman an extended winning streak. Scroll on as we rank each contender based on how he matches up against the middleweight czar.
(Note: Only those with subjectively reasonable chances will be listed. Those who are not, by this definition, do not stand a chance.)
6. Yoel Romero
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We would have been more certain of Yoel Romero's chances after UFC 184, but an unfortunate illness to his opponent is prolonging our certifications.
As Romero's resume currently stands, we know a few things: He's a really, really good wrestler (as advertised by his silver medal in the 2000 Sydney Olympics), and he has heavy hands (as evidenced by his eight KOs in nine victories).
But we also know that he's capable of fighting sloppy and gassing toward the end of a fight. Couple them together and you have who forgets he's a silver medalist and gives up a takedown 29 percent of the time, according to FightMetric.
Suffering a takedown to Weidman is kind of a big deal—too big a deal to place Romero any higher on this list.
5. Vitor Belfort
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Ah, yes. The third man.
In fairness, it's unfair to count Vitor Belfort out simply because he won't be enlisting the help of TRT any longer. We don't know that he won't be the same—I get that. Yet, by that same logic, we don't know that he will be the same.
It's a conundrum, really.
But even if 2015 Belfort walks into the cage capable of doing the same things 2013 Belfort could do, his chances aren't that great.
Sure, you might find it hard to erase those three brutal head-kick KOs from your memory, but you have to remember one thing: All three of those wins came against opponents who were either backing up or letting Belfort lead. You might remember that Weidman is really good at one thing: moving forward and putting pressure on his opponent.
That's bad news for Belfort.
4. Anderson Silva
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In some ways, we have no idea how Anderson Silva would have fared against Weidman if he didn't act a fool in the first fight or break his leg in the second.
But in other ways, we may already have our answer.
Weidman proved the dominant fighter in the first round at UFC 162. He took the then-champion down and pressured him to fight. The All-American proved even more dominant in the first round of their second affair, knocking Silva down with a solid hook from the clinch before landing several hard shots from the guard.
A third fight could well take place later this year if both fighters win their next bout. Here's to hoping that Silva's talents hold a candle to what they used to look like; otherwise, this trilogy could be completely one-sided.
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3. Lyoto Machida
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You have to applaud Lyoto Machida for his valiant efforts against Weidman at UFC 175—well, Rounds 4 and 5 at least.
The truth is, Machida proved he was capable of taking it to the champion better than anybody else in Weidman's short history as a fighter. But The Dragon was only able to do that when his back was firmly against the wall and down three rounds to none.
If Machida is capable of walking into a future title fight with that same all-or-nothing mentality, he has what it takes to wear the crown. Weidman is more than happy to play the lead, so Machida just needs to figure out how to play the counter while moving backward.
2. Jacare Souza
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Jacare Souza has looked darn-near unstoppable since relinquishing the Strikeforce crown. From a vastly improved stand-up game to a dangerous-as-ever ground attack, Souza is one of Weidman's biggest threats.
He may not have what it takes to give the champion fits on the feet, but he would make Weidman think twice before utilizing his greatest strength. As good of a grappler as Weidman is touted to be, he doesn't really compare to the man known as The Alligator.
With 15 submission wins to his name, Souza might just be the guy.
1. Luke Rockhold
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And here we are. The man who stands the best chance at defeating the middleweight champion.
Save for a ridiculous spinning-back head kick KO at the hands (or the foot) of The Phenom, Luke Rockhold has looked the part of a top middleweight. He may not possess all of the same accolades that Jacare has on the ground, but he's showcased his knack for finding submissions. He may not be as elusive on the feet as Machida or Silva, but he's more than capable of handling himself on the feet against just about anybody.
Rockhold is likely just one win away from punching his ticket for a title shot. Facing off against one of the better fighters the sport has ever seen in Machida, we'll have a clearer picture of Rockhold's chances for gold after UFC on Fox 15 on April 18.
Kristian Ibarra is a Featured Columnist at Bleacher Report MMA. He also serves as the sports editor at San Diego State University's student-run newspaper, The Daily Aztec. Follow him on Twitter at @Kristian_Ibarra for all things MMA.
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