UFC on Fox 14: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Predictions
At UFC on Fox 14, Alexander Gustafsson and Anthony Johnson will battle to determine the next challenger to Jon Jones' light heavyweight championship.
Gustafsson was previously booked for a rematch with Jones following a knockout win over Jimi Manuwa in his most recent outing. However, an injury suffered by the Swedish fighter caused the rematch to be at least temporarily scrapped. Now, Gustafsson will look to put it back together with a win over Johnson.
Released from the UFC roster for missing weight in January 2012, Rumble has had an outstanding career turnaround. Since earning his way back onto the UFC roster, he has gone 2-0 inside the Octagon and looks to be one of the most dangerous knockout artists in the 205-pound class.
With another UFC event on the way, Bleacher Report writers Riley Kontek, Craig Amos, Scott Harris, James MacDonald and Sean Smith are here to provide their predictions for all the UFC on Fox 14 main card bouts on Saturday.
2015 Standings
1 of 5
Riley Kontek remains undefeated through two events in 2015, albeit with some help in Donald Cerrone's debatable decision win over Benson Henderson. Carrying his momentum over from 2014, Kontek will be looking to top the leaderboard in 2015 as well.
On the other end of the spectrum, Scott Harris is hoping to avoid a 2014 repeat. The last-place finisher in 2014 hasn't been able to turn things around in 2015 and finds himself in the basement once again. There is still plenty of time for Harris to right the ship, though.
Here are the current standings:
Riley Kontek: 9-0
James MacDonald: 8-1
Craig Amos: 7-2
Sean Smith: 7-2
Scott Harris: 6-3
Akira Corassani vs. Sam Sicilia
2 of 5
Riley Kontek
I am really torn on this fight. Both guys are highly inconsistent and have no business being on a Fox main card. Home-field advantage is tempting to go with, but, you know, 'Murica!
Sicilia, Unanimous decision
Craig Amos
Sicilia flashed some terrific potential during his The Ultimate Fighter stint, while Corassani appeared to be not long for the UFC. Both guys have posted mixed results since, but Corassani has had a superior strength of schedule. I expect him to hold against Sicilia's early attacks and separate himself in Rounds 2 and 3 to pull out a decision win.
Corassani, Unanimous decision
Scott Harris
I could easily see Sicilia grabbing a knockout given Corassani's chin and Sicilia's power, but I'll give this one to Corassani. He's more athletic and will have the hometown crowd at his back.
Corassani, TKO, Rd. 2
James MacDonald
Neither man has a particularly high ceiling. This bout seems like more of a filler fight and shouldn’t be on the main card. That being said, Sicilia will edge out Corassani by decision.
Sicilia, Unanimous decision
Sean Smith
After picking up wins in his first two UFC outings, Corassani was handed some big fights with Top 15 featherweights Dustin Poirier and Max Holloway. Clearly, he wasn't ready for that level of competition, but he should rebound against Sicilia, especially with the Swedish crowd behind him this weekend.
Corassani, TKO, Rd. 1
Phil Davis vs. Ryan Bader
3 of 5
Riley Kontek
The battle of the gatekeepers touches down on Swedish soil. Both men are wrestlers. The difference is Bader can strike and Davis is still iffy on the feet. Bader's takedown defense and striking win this.
Bader, Unanimous decision
Craig Amos
Bader is the more powerful guy, but Davis could score some points on the feet. I also trust in Mr. Wonderful's wrestling a bit more, and the same goes for his submission skills. Bader could finish this one on the feet, but Davis can take a shot, and he weather everything Bader throws at him to pull out the win.
Davis, Submission, Rd. 2
Scott Harris
This could finally be the real make-or-break for Davis. No round-winning takedowns with 10 seconds left, no opponent who will ignore the holes in his striking. Bader is basically the same guy with a more advanced MMA game.
Bader, Unanimous decision
James MacDonald
I don’t expect this to be a pretty fight. The MMA wrestling of Davis and Bader is fairly even, so we may end up being treated to a mediocre kickboxing match. Davis is elusive enough to stay on his bike and win a decision from the outside.
Davis, Unanimous decision
Sean Smith
Both Davis and Bader will come in looking to establish themselves as the better wrestler. Davis either wins that battle or draws, so this turns into a lackluster striking match. If it's the latter, Davis' kicks will make the difference on the scorecards.
Davis, Unanimous decision
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Dan Henderson vs. Gegard Mousasi
4 of 5
Riley Kontek
Dan Henderson's one-punch KO power is the great equalizer. But, he's past his prime and taking on a very technical striker in Gegard Mousasi. If Henderson uses wrestling to expose Mousasi, he has a decent chance. Otherwise, Mousasi grabs the win here.
Mousasi, Unanimous decision
Craig Amos
Henderson is no longer the top-tier fighter he once was. Even his legendary chin has looked suspect for a while now. He's still tough and powerful and all that, but his chances against Mousasi are minuscule. I predict Mousasi gets a knockdown and pounces on the finish. I'll say it's a submission, but a TKO is just as likely.
Mousasi, Submission, Rd. 2
Scott Harris
Just another turn up to the top of the Hendo Ferris wheel. There's always another reason to take just one more ride. This time, it's a weight-class change. Sure, he deserves to retire whenever he, and only he, sees fit. But I'm under no obligation to remain interested.
Mousasi, Unanimous decision
James MacDonald
Henderson has declined significantly over the past year or two. His comically powerful overhand hand right will always give him a puncher’s chance, but he’s facing a man in Mousasi who possesses a granite chin and a superior all-around game.
Mousasi, Unanimous decision
Sean Smith
I've been calling for Henderson to return to 185 pounds for a while now. The more I think about it, though, the more I wonder whether it's a good idea for a 44-year-old to make that cut for the first time since an April 2010 loss to Jake Shields. Mousasi isn't exactly the best opponent to test the waters against either. He should make it two submission losses in a row for Henderson.
Mousasi, Submission, Rd. 2
Alexander Gustafsson vs. Anthony Johnson
5 of 5
Riley Kontek
I am tempted to take Anthony Johnson. There is just something about his explosive, violent style that screams finish in this fight. However, the cardio, length and technical prowess of Gustafsson will be too much. He gets out of some sticky situations and outlasts the American.
Gustafsson, Unanimous decision
Craig Amos
Johnson has looked sensational since returning to the UFC at a more reasonable weight, and you get the sense that his power edge could allow him to step through something and just starch Gustafsson. But The Mauler is one of the very best fighters going, and for all the credit Johnson deserves for resurrecting his career, he hasn't shown the ability to beat anyone at that level just yet. He may do it on Saturday—he has a real chance in this fight—but I'm taking the Swede.
Gustafsson, Submission, Rd. 4
Scott Harris
If anyone besides Johnson's previous opponents understands that threat of Johnson's power, you have to think that someone is Gustafsson. Anything can happen, sure, but the Swede has shown he has the smarts to understand what's needed and the athleticism to get it done.
Gustafsson, Unanimous decision
James MacDonald
This has the potential to be a close fight. I suspect that Gustafsson’s superior movement and more technical striking will be the difference-maker here, but it would be foolish to write off Johnson’s chances. However, the longer the contest goes, the more it’s likely to favour the Swede.
Gustafsson, Unanimous decision
Sean Smith
It's been a while since Johnson's ground game has been tested. Having taken down Jones, Gustafsson is good enough to take Rumble down, and that's exactly what he'll be looking to do on Saturday. If he does, Gustafsson should make a statement with a submission and earn his rematch with the light heavyweight champion.
Gustafsson, Submission, Rd. 2
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