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5 Prospects Sure to Be Overdrafted in the 2015 NFL Draft

Dan TylickiJan 22, 2015

With the 2014 college football season over and one game left to play in the NFL, all eyes turn to the 2015 NFL draft as teams look to build their rosters, whether it's a restart or looking for that last piece to the puzzle.

As is the case with every draft, players are not going to go in the exact order they should based on talent. Teams have varying needs heading into the draft, and some will place more emphasis on off-the-field issues than others.

Due to this, players who should go much later in the draft will be taken before they should go. For some players, such as quarterbacks, it's practically expected that at least one will be overdrafted. There are others, however, who may just go too early due to being overvalued.

Here are five players whose names will be called earlier than they should. This doesn't necessarily mean they will be busts at the next level, just that they are being or will be overvalued.

5. Bryce Petty, QB, Baylor

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Bryce Petty has had a great college career. Last year he threw for 4,200 yards and 32 touchdowns with only three interceptions, and while his 2014-15 stat line of 2,855/29/7 was not quite as good, his completion percentage improved, and he was able to rebound from a couple of questionable early-season starts.

Early projections have him as a late Day 2 pick, and that sounds right given what he brings to the table. He has the build and the arm strength to succeed in the NFL, but he does come from a spread offense and tends to lock onto a receiver.

His strengths are the kind that teams will jump on while ignoring the weaknesses. That combined with the fact that many teams seem to need a quarterback in a class that does not have many of them means Petty will likely end up in the second round, or even in the first round, despite not having the background to be selected that high.

4. Ameer Abdullah, RB, Nebraska

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After two years of running backs being an afterthought in the draft, a slew of talented backs could change that. Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley, Ameer Abdullah and T.J. Yeldon should all go in the first two rounds.

In Abdullah's case, that may be too high. Yes, he was a force at Nebraska, rushing for over 1,600 yards two seasons in a row, and he has no off-field issues whatsoever, unlike others on this list.

That being said, he is a bit undersized. At 5'8", you are looking mainly at a third-down role, as he's not going to be able to block. He has all of the tools in spite of this, but he is going to need to end up on a team with a quality offensive line that can mask the size issues, and if he is drafted too early, that might not happen.

3. Shaq Thompson, OLB, Washington

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Shaq Thompson established himself as a freak athlete at Washington. He played running back as well as linebacker, and he seemed to be all over the place on the field. That explosiveness is naturally going to make him a highly touted prospect.

To me, though, he is first and foremost an athlete. At the outside linebacker position, he's going to be undersized in the NFL and isn't going to be able to rush the passer; his skill set doesn't translate well to a coverage role, either.

NFL scouts seem to consider his two-way ability as a positive, but what it means in the NFL is that there is not a position he could currently dominate. That would be fine as a Day 2 or early Day 3 flyer, but he is being pegged as a first-round draft pick.

A first-round pick for a player who can play many positions, but none at a first-round level, just does not work.

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2. Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State

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Barring a sudden change in the next few months, Jameis Winston will be one of the first few players selected in the 2015 NFL draft, and he could very well go No. 1 overall.

Despite the many college victories and a Heisman win, Winston shouldn't be right at the top of draft boards. His off-the-field issues have already made rounds, and there will be teams not even looking at him as a result.

What puts him on this list for me isn't those issues so much as the fact that he took a step back at Florida State this year. All of his stat numbers were down, and his 18 interceptions were among the highest in college football. His poor performance against Florida, a team that generally has NFL-quality players in the secondary, speaks volumes to me as well.

He has all of the physical tools and played in a pro-style offense, so he's going to go near the top of the class. He may move past all of the question marks and be great, but there's no doubt the question marks are there, and there will be a team that takes him early despite those.

1. Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma

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When it comes to off-field issues, sometimes the number is just too great to look at a prospect seriously. That is what lands Dorial Green-Beckham on the list.

Green-Beckham's issues off the field are significant enough that he was dismissed from Missouri, and instead of trying to rebuild his image at Oklahoma after sitting out the 2014 season, he opted to declare for the draft.

He is the most physically gifted of any wide receivers in the draft, and he will be heavily looked at if only for that. That being said, he is still raw, especially after missing a year of football.

Because you can't teach ability, he will likely end up being drafted in the first round, and he definitely should not be, because right now he is a potentially great wide receiver at best, and a waste of a first-round pick at worst.

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