NFL Draft 2015: Breaking Down Marcus Mariota vs. Jameis Winston Debate

Perhaps the biggest question as we ramp up the 2015 NFL draft process is at the top. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers hold the No. 1 overall selection, and conventional wisdom says they'll be choosing between quarterbacks Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota.

Why does conventional wisdom say that, you ask? Because it saw the Buccaneers attempt to throw the football last season.

Mike Glennon has proved himself a largely inoffensive but unproductive quarterback in his two seasons. Giving Josh McCown a $10 million contract worked about as well as, uhh, giving Josh McCown a $10 million contract. Tampa Bay ranked among the NFL's five worst teams in completion percentage, interceptions, sacks and quarterback rating.

Mariota and Winston are two of the most decorated quarterbacks in recent college football history. Had he been able to top Ohio State in the national title game Mariota may have etched his name on the sport's Mount Rushmore. Winston had perhaps the greatest freshman season for a quarterback in history and followed it up by making noticeable strides as a quarterback—even if the final numbers aren't on the same level.

On paper, Winston and Mariota look like two can't-miss picks. But for those who have been watching closely, there are very real pros and cons to both signal-callers. Let's take a look at a few of them now and try to assess where the Buccaneers might wind up on draft night.

Mariota Pro: Historic Production Level

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In 2014, Mariota became the first player in college football history to have 50 more total touchdowns than turnovers. The Oregon signal-caller threw for a career-high 42 scores through the air and added 15 rushing touchdowns while tossing only four interceptions and losing three fumbles.

Those are numbers worth top billing by themselves. Mariota's been doing this stuff for three years. In 1,167 collegiate pass attempts, Mariota threw exactly 14 interceptions. That's the lowest interception rate in FBS history among quarterbacks who started at least 14 games, per ESPN Stats & Information. For his career he's accounted for 134 touchdowns and a paltry 25 turnovers.

Each of his three campaigns saw Mariota increase his passing yards by more than 700, and he might have gone 4,000-1,000 in 2014 had his offensive line not fallen apart. After being sacked 35 times in his first two seasons, Mariota was brought down 31 times alone as a junior.

Point being: There's a reason some were writing "Greatest College QB Ever" columns before Ohio State laid the wood on Oregon in the title game.

Winston Pro: Projectability

I've already seen Winston's style of play in other quarterbacks; he reminds you of so many guys who have done similar things.

There's a Ben Roethlisbergerian trait here, maybe a dash of Matthew Stafford there. Roethlisberger has been my favorite comparison throughout the process because of his size (6'5", 241 lbs) and ability to withstand contact. The Steelers quarterback has about an inch and a dozen or so pounds on the 6'4", 230-pound Winston, but there is rarely ever a perfect clone.

Big, strong-armed dudes with good release points and above-average accuracy come around every year. You watch Winston play, and it doesn't take long to realize the dude has nearly every ability you look for in an NFL quarterback. 

Mariota Con: Lack of Projectability

The phrase "system quarterback" evokes memories of Andre Ware flailing his way through an NFL career, so we'll avoid such aspersions with Mariota. But let's just say his system helped quite a bit of those gaudy numbers we've mentioned.

Mariota often threw in the cleanest pockets into the cleanest windows in college football. Oregon's system is designed to make things as easy as possible for every offensive player. Each action from the defense has a rule; Mariota very often knew where he was going with the ball before it was snapped. 

The Ducks' dependence on short throws at or behind the line of scrimmage distorted Mariota's completion numbers a bit.

While it's weird to say this about a guy who completed two-thirds of his passes in college, the biggest knock on Mariota is his accuracy. His ball placement leaves something to be desired even on open throws. This is going to be a problem early in Mariota's career if he's not careful. An inaccurate quarterback dealing with smaller windows than he's accustomed to is going to cause mistakes.

There's a growing sentiment that Mariota may not be ready to start from Week 1—a death knell in today's NFL.

"I personally don't think Marcus is a pro-ready quarterback," ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer recently said, per Phil Sheridan. "I don't think he's a guy who's ready to play right away. I think he's a guy who has to sit for a year or two and learn an NFL system."

Winston Con: Lack of Maturity

We don't need to rehash everything that happened during Winston's two years at Florida State, but know it's on the mind of any team that is remotely considering him—the sexual assault investigation, Publix, yelling obscenities, the alleged BB gun complaint.

All of that matters to NFL officials. Spending three years at a school and leaving with a Wikipedia section (NSFW language) with four different subsections about controversy isn't exactly promising. Nor is the video of Winston's coach, Jimbo Fisher, likely knowing it was his last game with the young star, looking exasperated and threatening to bench him.

Nearly every public word out of Florida State from teammates and coaches has been supportive. Now that he's actually left, we'll see if it stays that way. With front offices doing their due diligence, it'll be interesting to see how the narrative shifts on Winston in the coming months.

Mariota Pro: Maturity

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There is not a person inside or outside Eugene with a bad word to say about Mariota. Humble is a word it appears everyone who's written anything about him in the media has used. He's known as being quiet almost to a fault, choosing to lead with his play instead of boisterous actions.

"If this guy isn't what the Heisman Trophy is all about, then I'm in the wrong profession," Oregon coach Mark Helfrich told reporters in December, per The Associated Press' Antonio Gonzalez (via Houston Chronicle). "If you want your son or daughter to have a role model, pick this guy."

Some have thrown out Russell Wilson-Mariota comparisons for their play, but I'm more apt to buy in when it comes to their personalities. Both speak like they're constantly on-brand. Wilson is more of a natural, which you'd expect from someone who has been doing this for a long time. Mariota will get there someday, and he'll be a marketing goldmine when he does.

From a locker room standpoint, there's no question which guy you want.

Winston Pro: Winning Pedigree

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Winston finished his collegiate career with a 28-1 record as a quarterback. Florida State won 29 consecutive games during his tenure, a school and ACC record. The 2013-14 Seminoles were one of the most dominant teams in history, blasting each of their opponents by two or more touchdowns before narrowly defeating Auburn for a national title.

That win offered a preview to 2014, where Winston time and again showed his ability to battle back despite the odds. Florida State won seven games by a touchdown or less, many of which in comeback fashion. Winston, no matter what's happening on or off the field, does not get rattled. He treats three first-quarter interceptions against Florida with the same levelheadedness as he does three touchdown passes.

The first time we really saw him crack was in the semifinals loss to Oregon. That might be a sign he can't stand losing. Or he might just be the competitive [swear-word acronym] who leads you to a Super Bowl.

Where Do We Stand?

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I would take Mariota. Accuracy issues aside, he's a prototypical modern-day quarterback. He can make plays all over the field with his arm and legs, everyone he's played with raves about him and the "system quarterback" issue isn't as big of a deal as most think.

NFL offenses are moving closer to Chip Kelly schemes, not further away. Packaged plays are becoming increasingly common at the pro level, as are the pass-as-run throws you so often see in his systems. There is a reason Kelly has lost quarterbacks coaches to offensive coordinator gigs the last two seasons. Any coach who selects Mariota and then doesn't alter his system to fit his needs probably shouldn't be running a franchise.

With Winston, it's mostly an issue of trust. I'd take a deep breath and select him if I were the Tennessee Titans at No. 2. His ceiling is much too high to look five years down the line and regret passing on a perennial Pro Bowler. But given the actual choice—something the Bucs, not the Titans, have—there are too many factors pushing the pendulum in Mariota's direction.

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter.