Does Brandon Rios Need a Win Against Mike Alvarado to Stay Relevant?

Sometimes two years can feel like a really, really long time.

Case in point, Brandon Rios woke up on the morning of Jan. 21, 2013—exactly two years ago—as an undefeated 26-year-old fighter whom more than just a few folks considered a certified future star.

And at the time, it wasn’t hard to understand the enthusiasm.

He had just completed a reign as WBA champion at 135 pounds, had knocked out 23 of the 31 men he’d been in with and was coming off a seventh-round stoppage of previously unbeaten Mike Alvarado the prior October that no less an authority than Sports Illustrated considered the top fight of 2012.

By the time January rolled around, he was set to begin training for a second go-round with Alvarado at 140 pounds in March, a fight that—presuming he won it—would put him squarely in the mix for big payday after big payday in a burgeoning cash corridor between junior welterweight and welterweight.

But somewhere on the road to Canastota, the momentum got lost.

Fast-forward to today, and Rios, now 28, finds himself in a desperate spot with a familiar foe—Alvarado—in a career situation that few could have forecast. The two men will get together Saturday night in Denver in what practically amounts to an HBO-televised “loser leaves the spotlight” match.

Winner stays relevant. Other guy starts fielding questions about retirement.

And even through his trademark defiance, Rios himself conceded the “must-win” label applies.

“It’s not that I have to win,” he said. “I do. But I want to win.

“I’m going to do what I do best. I want another big shot at another big person. I’m ready to get back to the top. I’m not done yet. I’m young in the sport and I’ve still got a lot more gas in my tank. People think I’m already shot and I’m already done, but that’s not true. That’s not true at all.”

Contrarians, based on Rios’ performances since the Alvarado win, would suggest otherwise.

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He was beaten by a close unanimous decision by a technically sound foe in the rematch, stymied largely because Alvarado opted to spend long stretches boxing and moving rather than opting for the all-in slugfest that had made the first match an instant classic—and was far more suited to Rios’ skill set.

Another 12-rounder yielded another scorecard loss eight months later, though the stakes beforehand and the criticism after were enhanced because the opponent was Manny Pacquiao, the stage was atop a pay-per-view in China and the beating was light-years worse than what Alvarado had delivered.

Rios absorbed more than two blows for every one he landed, was outjabbed by a similar margin and was the catcher to a Filipino pitcher who pounded the zone with 48 percent of his power shots, according to CompuBox.

Then, to add insult to misery, a failed post-fight urine test provided an unexpectedly extended vacation.

Ultimately, his return after eight months this past August was inglorious for all but its result—a ninth-round disqualification over Diego Chaves that ended with Rios trailing on two of three scorecards and necessitated a trip to a Las Vegas hospital thanks to a possible corneal abrasion, a shoulder injury and dizziness.

The third Alvarado fight was a natural to further their franchise and give the WBO a reason to polish up its bargain-basement international welterweight title belt, though the event far more closely resembles a last stand—Alvarado has lost two straight outings since beating Rios in 2013—than a new beginning.

In fact, though Rios will enter the ring ranked fourth in the world at 147 by the WBO, 10th by the WBC and 14th by the IBO, his own trainer, Robert Garcia, suggested a difficult night could force a difficult conversation.

“For us, it's pretty much do or die,” Garcia told The Ring’s Dominic Verdin. “Brandon needs to come and perform. If he doesn't win it might be, it could be his last fight. Depending on the outcome, how much punishment they take, I might even advise him to retire.”

Unless otherwise noted, quotes were obtained firsthand.