Boxers Most Likely to End 2015 as a Lineal Champion
In past eras, boxing fans didn't even need to think about lineal champions. To be the champion, by definition, meant being the guy who beat the guy who beat the guy.
In this alphabet-soup era, a fighter can be a "champion" without even being a top-10 talent.
For this article, I'm defining "lineal" champion as synonymous with The Ring champion. I don't always agree with its rankings, but it does a better job than any other publication or group of assigning legitimacy to vacated lineal claims.
Lineal Champions Unlikely to Still Reign at the End of 2015
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When Miguel Cotto captured the lineal middleweight title from Sergio Martinez last June, it made for one of the biggest boxing stories of 2014. If I were going to place a wager on Cotto's next opponent, I'd bet on Floyd Mayweather. And I don't think Cotto beats him.
Terence Crawford is a the lineal champion at lightweight and an emerging superstar. But I'd be shocked if he finished 2015 still competing at 135 pounds. When I interviewed him last year before his fight with Yuriorkis Gamboa, he told me that fight might be his last at lightweight.
Lineal light welterweight Danny Garcia is another young star due for a move up in weight class. I expect to see him at full welterweight by year's end.
6. Sergey Kovalev, Light Heavyweight
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In October, Sergey Kovalev unified three of the four major titles at light heavyweight, when he beat Bernard Hopkins by unanimous decision. The only belt left at 175 pounds belongs to WBC and lineal champion Adonis Stevenson.
Kovalev vs. Stevenson would be one of the year's most highly anticipated fights. Both men have exciting punching power and can end a fight in a hurry.
I would make Kovalev the definite favorite in that fight, but Stevenson's athleticism and power can't be dismissed. Kovalev has the better overall skills, but no fight can be viewed as a "sure thing" when both men have the power to knock each other out.
5. Guillermo Rigondeaux, Super Bantamweight
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Guillermo Rigondeaux became the lineal champion at super bantamweight in April 2013, when he beat Nonito Donaire by easy unanimous decision. The win launched Rigo into the pound-for-pound top 10.
Since that fight, Rigondeaux has not had another truly meaningful bout. There are two promising and undefeated belt holders at 122, Leo Santa Cruz and Carl Frampton, and I'm hopeful that Rigondeaux will face at least one of them during this year.
I don't expect Rigondeaux to lose during 2015. My reasoning for not putting him higher is that I think there is some chance he'll move up in weight, in pursuit of a better fight.
Rigo is not exactly big at 122 pounds, but necessity might force him to climb in weight, regardless.
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4. Roman Gonzalez, Flyweight
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Last September, undefeated sensation Roman Gonzalez became a three-division world champion, when he captured the WBC and lineal flyweight title from Akira Yaegashi by Round 9 TKO. Gonzalez ended 2014 with a record of 41-0 and 35 KOs.
Winning that third title forced him onto any credible pound-for-pound top 10. The top fighter currently campaigning in his division is WBO and WBA champion Juan Francisco Estrada, who Gonzalez has already beaten.
That fight happened at light flyweight, though, so it would make sense to have them rematch at 112, especially with so much hardware on the line.
But the really big fight out there for Gonzalez now would be against Japanese phenom Naoya Inoue. Last year, Inoue turned 21. He also won the WBC light flyweight title against Adrian Hernandez in April by Round 6 TKO.
It was just the sixth fight of the young star's career. On December 30, Inoue jumped over Gonzalez and knocked out longtime WBO super flyweight champion Omar Narvaez in Round 2.
Gonzalez and Inoue share a promoter and a clash between them would make sense for a huge year-end event in Tokyo. But I am pretty certain Gonzalez would be vacating his current title to move up and pursue a belt in another division.
3. Andre Ward, Super Middleweight
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Andre Ward spent the entire year of 2014 inactive. Regardless, he remains the man at 168 pounds. He became the lineal super middleweight champion by virtue of winning the Showtime Super Six tournament in 2011.
The second-best fighter in that division remains England's Carl Froch, who Ward beat with ease in the tournament finals.
After signing to Jay-Z's promotional team, Ward should be back in action in 2015. Still in his athletic prime, I do not expect the year off to make a significant difference in his ability to remain undefeated.
The biggest threats for Ward are above him and below him. But I don't see WBA middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin coming up in weight before the end of the year. And I don't expect Ward to move up right now to pursue a big fight against somebody like Sergey Kovalev.
There are credible new contenders at 168, like WBC champion Anthony Dirrell. Ward will most likely fight at super middleweight in 2015 and remain the lineal champion.
2. Floyd Mayweather, Welterweight, Junior Middleweight, Possibly Middleweight
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Floyd Mayweather is the lineal champion at both welterweight and light middleweight. There's a good chance he'll defend both of those claims during 2015, but not against anybody likely to beat him.
I don't believe Mayweather will fight Manny Pacquiao in 2015. If I had to make a guess at this point, I'd predict he will fight either Amir Khan or Miguel Cotto next.
The rematch with Cotto is not very compelling from the perspective of in-ring excitement, but it would offer Mayweather a chance to become the lineal champion at middleweight. That is a historically significant accomplishment.
But it needs to be put into context. Cotto may have won the lineal championship from Sergio Martinez last June, but undefeated WBA champion Gennady Golovkin is clearly "the man" at 160 pounds.
1. Wladimir Klitschko, Heavyweight
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Wladimir Klitschko, along with his recently retired older brother, Vitali, has dominated the heavyweight division for the majority of this century. In the past decade, the younger Klitschko has looked unbeatable. And at 38, he shows no sign of slowing down.
Fans in the United States are justifiably excited about Deontay Wilder's emergence as the WBC belt holder earlier this month. After knocking out his first 32 opponents within four rounds, Wilder showed the ability to take a punch and go the distance in winning the strap from Bermane Stiverne.
But Wilder didn't look prepared for Klitschko yet. And I don't expect to see them fight in 2015.
I also don't expect anybody else who faces Klitschko this year to beat him.
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