UFC on Fox 14 Bold Predictions: Who Gets a Date with Jon Jones? Rumble or Gus?

Even as the UFC light heavyweight champion finds himself mired in the flat spin of a drug scandal, the division rolls on around him.

Saturday's UFC on Fox 14 features two potentially meaningful 205-pound scraps. Alexander Gustafsson and Anthony Johnson battle for likely No. 1 contender status, while perennial contenders Ryan Bader and Phil Davis continue to search for the signature win that will put them on the fast track.

In addition, all-time great Dan Henderson returns to the middleweight division, looking to break out of a 1-4 slump dating back to Feb. 2013.

The fact that it all goes down inside a stadium-sized arena in Stockholm, Sweden and will air live on network television in the U.S. only adds to the grandeur.

As always, there are predictions to be made. Boldly, if possible.

Here, Bleacher Report lead MMA writers Chad Dundas (that's me) and Jonathan Snowden give it the old college try. OK, fine, junior college.

Prediction: Anthony Johnson Spoils Jon Jones-Alexander Gustafsson Rematch

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Chad

I have a hunch Johnson will win on Saturday night. It’s kind of a weird feeling, because Johnson is going off as more than a 2-1 underdog, according to the whales over at Odds Shark, and I believe Gustafsson is the better mixed martial arts fighter.

Perhaps I just have more faith in the MMA Gods’ fondness for disorder than Johnson himself. The UFC going to the trouble of booking an enormous stadium show in Lusty Gusty’s hometown reminds me a bit of that time the company tried to name a pay-per-view after Randy Couture.

Next thing you know, Vitor Belfort gets to take the belt home with him for a few months.

Johnson’s power wins the day here. Gustafsson goes down late in the first and, with him, our hopes of a summertime do-over of his epic UFC 165 fight with Jon Jones. Instead, Johnson gets that cherry assignment and goes on to make a better showing against the champ than most people expect.

Jonathan

There are plenty of reasons to doubt Johnson here. Let's tick off a few.

First, there's Gustafsson's growth as a fighter. He's become a truly dangerous man in all areas. It's been amazing to watch him grow from the young fighter who was outclassed on the mat by Phil Davis into a fighter who is capable of not only defending against Jon Jones but actually taking him down in turn.

Second, no matter how hard I try to forget, Johnson is still a guy who made his name as a welterweight. That has to mean something.

Finally, he's fighting a popular fighter in his hometown. That shouldn't matter—but it does.

You know what, though? Despite all of that, Johnson still pulls off the upset here. He's going to put one right on Gusty's chin and create a compelling matchup against Jones.

Prediction: Dan Henderson Goes out a Loser.

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Jonathan

Dan Henderson is one of the greatest American mixed martial arts fighters of all time. While Jon Jones, in recent years, has clearly surpassed him and closed the book on that discussion, Henderson is in the mix. Although the sport is barely more than two decades old, that's still an impressive accomplishment.

Like all old fighters, however, the 44-year-old Henderson's departure from the sport hasn't been pretty. While everyone loved his fight with Mauricio Rua at UFC 139, it showed two fighters clearly in decline. The heart and courage were there—the physical tools, alas, were not.

Since that bout in 2011, Henderson has lost four of his last five. His only respite? A rematch with the even more washed-up Rua last year.

Gegard Mousasi, historically, doesn't belong in the same sentence as a fighter of Henderson's caliber. But he'll likely be the man to pound that final nail into the great man's professional coffin. It will be a sudden ending that was years in the making.

Chad 

I wish I could say I disagree with you, but I think you’re mostly spot on. That said, if Mousasi hunt-and-pecks his way to a decision win over Henderson, and then Hendo retires in the cage on live network television? Well, we’ve seen worse ways to go out. Much worse.

You can tell Henderson is getting a little desperate here, since he’s dropping back to the middleweight division. He hasn’t made 185 pounds since a poor performance against Jake Shields in Strikeforce back in 2010. In his later years, he’s eschewed the weight cut, so it stands to reason he’s only going back there because he has to do it.

I’d be a lot more worried, though, if he was fighting someone I thought could really hurt him—a Yoel Romero or Luke Rockhold type. By comparison, Mousasi, as good as he is, has always lacked an innate viciousness. If he outpoints Hendo over three rounds, it could be uncomfortable to watch, but at least it (probably) won’t be ghastly.

And if this does prove to be Henderson’s last fight—which, again, wouldn’t be terrible timing—he can walk away as one of the best ever and likely never buy another drink in his life.

Prediction: Ryan Bader and Phil Davis Can’t Make Us Love Them.

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Chad

It’s an ugly scene, man—both this bit of matchmaking and a light heavyweight division so shallow we’re forced to regard Ryan Bader and Phil Davis as potential factors.

We could get lucky here and have one of these guys do something amazing during the first couple of minutes of this fight. More likely, this will turn into one of those tedious affairs where two talented grapplers engage in a sloppy 15-minute sparring session on the feet.

One guy will carve out an obvious advantage and win a unanimous decision. (Ed. Note: Maybe...it will be...Davis?) But the fight will fail to impress, and so we’ll continue to regard both Davis and Bader as second-tier fighters, even in the depthless 205-pound division.

Make no mistake: There are two distinct castes at light heavyweight. There’s Jon Jones, Daniel Cormier, Alexander Gustafsson, Anthony Johnson and Rashad Evans. Then there’s everybody else.

Davis and Bader may be among the best of the B-list, but they’re still B-list.

Jonathan

I like Chad's premise. The light heavyweight division really is kind of like 1990s pro wrestling super group the NWO.

The top stars are the Wolfpack. Guys like Davis and Bader? They are indeed the Black and White—and like the NWO's job squad, no one can quite bring themselves to care.

Bader and Davis are clear examples of modern MMA's worst tendencies. They are two wrestlers who are all too happy with devoting their lives to tepid kickboxing. I'd prefer wrestlers who are proud of their background and use it to its best ability over a couple of guys trying to be something they aren't. Give me Ben Askren over these guys any day.

Prediction: McGregor Steals Thunder from Rumble.

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Jonathan

The UFC put all of its considerable promotional might, including the power of NFL football and an audience of tens of millions on Fox, behind Conor McGregor last Sunday. And it was, to borrow from the man himself, a beautiful thing.

McGregor, per our happy friends over at Fox Sports 1, set a ratings record for the UFC on that network, bringing in a whopping 2.75 million viewers. The problem? It may have been at the expense of poor Rumble Johnson and Alexander Gustafsson.

Though the two light heavyweight contenders will have the benefit of the larger Fox platform, it seems like their fight is an afterthought, randomly inserted into a month of amazing bouts. Jon Jones, Daniel Cormier and McGregor are behind them. Nick Diaz and Anderson Silva are yet to come. This is the lonely middle child of cage fights.

Will anyone be watching when they collide? I'm a little worried, Chad.

Chad

I suppose it speaks not only to the UFC's strength of schedule during Jan. (which is strong) but the pitfalls of sprinting headlong into another year with plans to do an event nearly every weekend. Some good ones are bound to get lost in the shuffle.

I admit, I was among those who initially criticized the UFC for scheduling McGregor’s showcase bout for near midnight on a Sunday after eight hours of playoff NFL football. I was wrong and have already issued a mea culpa in (what else?) podcast form.

You’re right, though, that the fervor over McGregor beating up another handpicked fall guy threatens to overshadow a much more competitive fight in Gustafsson vs. Johnson.

I wouldn’t say “worried” is exactly the right word for how I feel, since I don't work for the UFC and therefore don’t give a hoot if the fight company's ratings are good or bad. Besides, the people who care enough to know about it will be watching, and that’s all that matters to me.

I do think it’s a shame, though. Whoever wins this fight will likely take on the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world for the UFC’s marquee championship come spring or summer. That seems like something everybody ought to care about.