Super Bowl Odds 2015: Patriots vs Seahawks Money Line Prediction, Halftime Props

The Super Bowl is America's biggest sporting event for reasons that extend beyond the culmination of the NFL season.  The in-game battle between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks obviously represents the main focus for football fans, but there are plenty of other factors surrounding the game to keep viewers entertained.        

Betting, of course, might be the main avenue of interest for nonpartisan fans.  The Super Bowl always brings myriad prop bets, providing more variety of options than any other game during the season.  Even non-sports fans can get in on the action, as the halftime show featuring pop icon Katy Perry will have a number of prop bets on the board.

Of course, many of these lines are simply sucker bets meant to add to the Super Bowl's pomp and circumstance.  The game does offer the opportunity for more traditional analysis, though, so using the lines from Odds Shark, let's take a look at the serious and not-so-serious betting opportunities in Super Bowl XLIX.

Moneyline Pick: Seattle (7-4 or -143)

In a game many perceive as a tossup, the value would seemingly lie with the Patriots, who offer 5-4 or +129 odds.  It would seem that the adage of "when in doubt, grab the points" would apply to this situation.

However, when dissecting the matchup further, the Seahawks should likely hold the slight edge because of their advantage in the trenches.  Defensively, it's hard to imagine a unit better constructed to stymie New England's passing game, which utilizes timing and play action to negate the opposing pass rush and pick up steady chunks of yardage.  The Patriots have scored at least 30 points in 42 of their 73 games since 2011 (postseason included), but that pales in comparison to Seattle's streak in that time frame:

Moreover, the Seahawks demolished a similarly constructed offense in last year's Super Bowl, and while these Pats are not the same offense as last year's Denver Broncos, Seattle can use a similar blueprint for success.  Based on Football Outsiders' opponent-adjusted DVOA metrics, the Seahawks ranked as the fourth-best pass defense against short passes and the eighth-best against passes over the middle, the areas where the Patriots make most of their hay.

Thus, expect Seattle to play plenty of their hybrid-zone single-high safety coverages, like Cover 3 Buzz and Cover 1 Robber.  These "man-free lurk" concepts allow Seattle's estimable safety tandem of Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas to patrol the intermediate and deep middle zones, essentially forcing the ball out to the perimeter.  That's not the strength of the offense for Tom Brady and Co., especially with Richard Sherman and Byron Maxwell waiting on the perimeter.

Offensively, Russell Wilson could have just as much trouble moving the ball through the air as Brady.  But Seattle's top-ranked running game by DVOA matches up well against a New England defense that has had issues with zone-blocking schemes like that of the Seahawks' this season.  Moreover, the Patriots' already inconsistent pass rush could be totally negated by the need to contain against Wilson's legs:

Seattle's running game puts plenty of stress on three-down linebackers Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower.  Collins and Hightower represent a silver lining for the Patriots defense, as they possess similar range and physicality as Carolina's duo of Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis, who have helped stifle Seattle's running game in the past.

Even if the Patriots experience some early success stopping the run, though, Seattle has consistently worn teams down late.  According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Seahawks have averaged a whopping 5.8 yards per carry in the fourth quarter and overtime this year, by far the best number in the league.  

Given that the Patriots offense is unlikely to consistently sustain long drives against Seattle's defense, it's not difficult to envision the Seahawks wearing the New England defense down on the ground en route to a repeat championship.

Halftime Props

Prop	Betting Line
How many times will Katy Perry be mentioned in the 1st Half?	O/U: 1.5
Which song will Katy Perry perform first at Halftime?	Firework 3-2, Roar 3-2, This is How We Do 5-1, Dark Horse 12-1, E.T. 12-1, Wide Awake 12-1, Waking Up in Vegas 20-1
What will Katy Perry be wearing when she begins the Halftime Show?	Skirt or Dress 4-5, Pants (below knees) 2-1, Shorts (above knees) 2-1
What color will Katy Perry's hair be when she begins the Halftime Show?	Black/Brown 2-1, Pink/Red 3-1, Blue/Green 3-1, Blonde 4-1, Purple 5-1

Quite honestly, there's not much quantitative or objective analysis for these bets.  That shouldn't dissuade you from blowing a few bucks in the name of fun, but investing a fortune in any of these props might cause some serious regrets come Monday morning.

The two bets that make the most sense are the ones relating to Katy Perry's hair color and first-half mentions.  Perry and J.J. Watt recently did a cover shoot for ESPN the Magazine, in which her hair color was dark brown:

The first-half mentions prop also seems quite likely to hit the over.  The Super Bowl figures to run in-game advertisements, in which Al Michaels will need to mention Perry's name.  In addition, it wouldn't be surprising to hear Michaels mention her name at the end of the first half as the halftime show approaches.

Still, there's nothing scientific about any of these bets, though a couple of them are reasonable enough that they might warrant a small investment.  Hopefully, the bathroom break and constant influx of game-day food are enough to keep you interested during halftime.