Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots: Betting Odds, Super Bowl Pick, Trends

The Seattle Seahawks, trying to join the ranks of the back-to-back Super Bowl champions, are 6-1 straight-up and 4-2-1 against the spread in their last seven postseason games.

The New England Patriots, trying to snap a two-game Super Bowl losing streak and win their first league title in a decade, are 8-7 SU but just 5-10 ATS in their last 15 postseason contests.

Underdogs have won the past three Super Bowls and have covered the spread in 10 of the past 13 championship games. But we’re not sure who the underdog will be here in this one yet.

Super Bowl point spread

The Seahawks opened as two-point favorites Sunday night, but the game was quickly bet down a point at some shops, down to a pick'em at others and even to one-point favorite status for the Patriots at one shop monitored by Odds Shark. The total opened at 48.5. (Line updates and matchup report)

Super Bowl pick, via Odds Shark computer

35.0-34.6 Patriots

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The Patriots just dominated the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship Game, winning 45-7 and easily covering the spread as seven-point betting favorites. New England jumped out to a 14-0 lead, took a 17-7 advantage into halftime, then won the second half 28-0.

The Patriots received 148 yards on the ground from banger LeGarrette Blount, three touchdown passes from quarterback Tom Brady, held the ball for almost 38 minutes and stymied Indy quarterback Andrew Luck who threw for just 126 passing yards and two picks.

So New England is playing in the Super Bowl for the sixth time under head coach Bill Belichick, looking for its fourth Lombardi Trophy. On the season the Patriots ranked 11th in the league in total offense, 13th in total defense and they're 12-1 SU and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games that have actually mattered.

The Pats were underdogs five times this season and won outright four times.

Why the Seahawks can cover the spread

The Seahawks, somewhat shockingly, just got outplayed by the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game, turning the ball over five times, but with help from a minor miracle still won 28-22 in overtime.

The Seahawks trailed 16-0 late into the third quarter, then pulled off a masterful fake field goal for a touchdown that got them back in the game. Then late in the fourth quarter Seattle scored to pull within 19-14, recovered an onside kick and scored again to take a short-lived lead.

They then won the game in overtime on a beautiful Russell Wilson-to-Jermaine Kearse 35-yard scoring hookup, pulling off a most unlikely victory.

So Seattle is now one win away from joining Vince Lombardi's Packers, Don Shula's Dolphins, the Steelers of the 1970s, Joe Montana's 49ers, the Cowboys of the early '90s, John Elway's Broncos and, interestingly enough, the Patriots of a decade ago as back-to-back Super Bowl champions.

On the season the Seahawks ranked ninth in total offense, first in rushing and first in total defense, and they've won their last eight games in a row. If they end up being underdogs, bettors should know that the Seahawks are angry dogs, 19-4-1 ATS since Sept. 25, 2011, according to the Odds Shark NFL database.

Smart Pick

Disregarding local allegiances, this is the Super Bowl matchup most everyone wanted; Brady against the Seattle defense, Belichick vs. Pete Carroll, the newest and baddest bullies on the block against the perennial contenders.

But in the end, Super Bowl XLIX is still just a football game, in which running the ball and playing good defense will go a long way toward deciding the outcome.

Seattle played a listless first half against Green Bay in the NFC title game, which won't happen Feb. 1. Also, the Seahawks probably won't turn the ball over five times again.

And Marshawn Lynch vs. the New England run defense is a slightly better bet than Blount going against the Seattle front seven. So the smart money on Super Bowl XLIX resides with the defending-champion Seahawks, even though lots of early Super Bowl betting action landed on the Patriots, causing that opening line to swing several points.

Betting Trends

• The Seahawks are 25-5 SU in their last 30 games as favorites
• The Seahawks are 9-0 SU and 5-3-1 ATS in their last nine games as playoff favorites
• The Seahawks are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight meetings with Patriots
• The Patriots are 3-4 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in their seven previous Super Bowl appearances
• The Patriots are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight games against NFC
• OVER 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Seahawks and Patriots

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.