Calling Fact or Fiction on Top Boxing Rumors and Speculation
Even though I had officially given up on it years ago, in recent weeks I had begun to feel cautiously hopeful that "The Fight" between Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather might finally be falling into place. Now, as the first month of 2015 enters its back stretch, I've returned to my sensible pessimism.
The good news is that boxing has begun to present more worthwhile topics to discuss than a never-to-happen fight between two aging stars.
Still, Pacquiao and Mayweather's names remain prominent in the top rumors and speculations I've come across of late.
Floyd Mayweather Is Ducking Manny Pacquiao: Inconclusive
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Since the early years of the Obama administration, boxing fans have been consumed by the almost never-ending speculation on whether Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather will meet in a boxing ring. If this fight had happened between 2009 and 2012, it might have been one of the great fights in boxing history.
It would still be the most anticipated fight of recent years if it happened now. That's why when speculation heated up over a potential breakthrough in the last months of 2014 and the first weeks of this year, fans took the bait, often against our better judgement.
On January 14, Bob Arum told Yahoo Sports that Manny Pacquiao had agreed to all of Mayweather's conditions and that the only thing holding the fight up was Mayweather's ultimate agreement.
Nearly a week passed without comment from Mayweather. Finally, on Tuesday, Mayweather made his first public statements.
As quoted by Edward Chaykovsky on Boxing Scene, Mayweather is denying that anything substantial has been agreed to, adding that "Top Rank has been incredibly difficult to work with."
There would also have to be some substantial negotiations reached between rivals HBO and Showtime before the fight could ever take place.
I've gone back to officially doubting Mayweather and Pacquiao will ever fight. I won't believe it's happening until I see an official press conference.
As for whether Mayweather is ducking Pacquiao, I have a hard time believing that he would. But there's enough circumstantial evidence out there now so that many boxing fans will accuse him of it.
Floyd Mayweather-Miguel Cotto II Will Happen in May: Likely
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In the waning months of 2014, a showdown between newly crowned lineal and WBC middleweight champion Miguel Cotto and popular young star Saul Alvarez had seemed inevitable. It promised to be one of the biggest boxing events of 2015.
Now it looks like it's off the table. On January 17, ESPN's Dan Rafael quoted Oscar De La Hoya as saying the fight was dead.
Rafael further speculated that the deeper we get into 2015 without seeing Manny Pacquiao vs. Floyd Mayweather made, the more likely it becomes that Mayweather will sign for a rematch with Cotto instead.
If Cotto isn't going to make a fight with Canelo, Mayweather is the only other bout that really makes sense. There can be no doubt that Cotto would welcome a chance for redemption, especially after finding a great match with trainer Freddie Roach.
For Mayweather, it's an opportunity to win a world title at middleweight, without risking a bout against the monster Gennady Golovkin.
I predict we'll even hear the argument being made that another win over Cotto would do more for Mayweather's legacy at this point than a victory over a faded Pacquiao.
Note: I don't agree with that argument. But I expect that we will hear it.
Manny Pacquiao Will Fight Jessie Vargas Next: Likely
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While Bob Arum told Yahoo Sports on January 14 that Manny Pacquiao had agreed to all of Floyd Mayweather's terms for a superfight, the Pacquiao camp has been clear that it doesn't plan to wait forever to hear back from the pound-for-pound king. From the sound of things, Top Rank will have a backup plan ready to go.
Pacquiao told the L.A. Times eariler this week that he was giving Mayweather until the end of the month to sign, and then he would be looking for another fight.
There has been more and more speculation that Pacquiao's next opponent will end up being light welterweight Jessie Vargas instead. Bob Arum was talking up Vargas as a potential Pacquiao opponent to the Las Vegas Review-Journal last November.
This isn't a fight that does anything for Pacquiao's legacy. While Vargas is a talented young fighter, he's shown nothing in the ring to indicate he's ready for a fighter at Pacquiao's level.
This fight would be much like Pacquiao's last fight in November, with Chris Algieri. It gives Top Rank the opportunity to use Pacquiao to raise the profile of one of its younger fighters.
For Pacquiao, it will be no more than a payday, and not a very good one, by the standards of his previous gates.
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Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Will Fight Andrzej Fonfara Next: Maybe
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As 2015 began, it looked very likely that Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. would face super middleweight champion Carl Froch. But a report by ESPN's Dan Rafael on Monday announced that Froch was injured and out of action until next summer.
Per Ring TV, Chavez reached an immediate deal to face light heavyweight contender Andrzej Fonfara this April instead. That's a gutsy fight for Chavez to take. Despite a credible loss to Adonis Stevenson late last year, Fonfara remains a relatively unknown fighter.
But he'd represent a very legitimate threat to Chavez. It would be a competitive and entertaining fight.
Unfortunately, it might not happen. As the above linked Ring story also details, Bob Arum is asserting that Chavez still owes Top Rank another fight before his contract is up. So Chavez's next fight might be in a courtroom.
Deontay Wilder Will Fight Wladimir Klitschko Soon: Don't Hold Your Breath
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American boxing fans should be excited about Deontay Wilder's unanimous-decision victory over Bermane Stiverne last Saturday night. After knocking out the first 32 opponents in his professional career, Wilder finally moved up to face a legitimate, top-10 heavyweight.
Wilder's KO streak came to an end, but the result was in some ways better. When confronted by an opponent who didn't crumble before his power, Wilder stayed confident and stuck to his game plan to win anyway. His chin was tested, at least a little bit, and he handled it fine.
Wilder's victory made him the WBC heavyweight champion. And it's been far too long since an American wore any portion of the heavyweight crown.
But Wilder still didn't look ready to face the true heavyweight champion, Wladimir Klitschko. And it's significant that Showtime's Jim Gray did not mention Klitschko's name during Wilder's post-fight, in-ring interview.
As reported by Ring TV earlier in the week, Wilder brought the Ukrainian up at the press conference, saying that in an ideal world, he would face Tyson Fury first, and then Klitschko.
In the real world, it might take a while longer than that. Expect to see Wilder face at least a couple of challengers, while his trainer Mark Breland continues to work with him, before he legitimately pursues a unification bout with Klitschko.
Boxing Is Blowing Up in 2015: Fact
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The Manny Pacquiao-Floyd Mayweather fight might not happen in 2015, but the sport is still off to an outstanding start. For years, fans my age and older have lamented two things: the lack of heavyweight champion in the United States and the absence of big-time boxing on network television.
But with the year not a month old, both of those things have been accomplished. Deontay Wilder's world-title claim is ultimately a thin bowl of alphabet-soup broth, but I'm as happy as any fan to applaud it.
The hard-working father of a disabled daughter, Wilder makes for a compelling, larger-than-life face for American boxing, for as long as he can stay on top.
Earlier this month, boxing power-broker Al Haymon announced three major fights to air on NBC this spring. On March 7, Keith Thurman will fight Robert Guerrero and Adrien Broner will face John Molina. In April, light welterweight champion Danny Garcia will fight Lamont Peterson.
Those are all compelling, evenly matched fights, with real relevancy at the top of the sport.
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