MLB Offseason Sleeper Moves That'll Have a Big Impact
With spring training right around the corner, it feels like an appropriate time to dig deep into the winter transaction log and address a handful of off-the-radar moves that will really make a difference in 2015.
Players like Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, James Shields, Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval headlined this year's class of available free agents, garnering the majority of the headlines and, of course, the money.
There's always an upper echelon of free-agent talent, but it takes 25 men to compose an MLB roster. It seems that the clubs that are able to introduce productive, cheap alternatives into their clubhouses often find themselves playing in October.
Each of the following candidates' decisions may not have been as heavily scrutinized in the media, but that doesn't mean these sleepers won't be vital to the success of their future clubs.
There are plenty of reasons why a player may be considered a sleeper. Veterans hoping to return to prior form (Justin Masterson and Jason Grilli), a talented youngster realizing a change of scenery (Nathan Eovaldi) and guys with unique skill sets (Seth Smith and Nori Aoki) all classify as dark-horse free-agent pickups that may have slipped through the cracks.
Over the next few slides, we'll try to diagnose which winter additions possess sleeper potential and the impact they'll end up providing their new teams.
Make sure to keep the conversation going in the comments section below. Do you believe the players chosen on this list qualify as sleepers? What kind of realistic impact should we expect from each guy? Let your voice be heard!
Here we go!
Nori Aoki to the San Francisco Giants
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Key Stat
Aoki has recorded career walk and strikeout percentages of 7.8 and 8.0 percent, respectively.
What They Said
"You're telling me Giants got Nori Aoki for $4 million (plus bonuses) on a 1-year deal? Career .353 OBP. Hits LH even better than RH."
-Mike Berardino of The St. Paul Pioneer Press on San Francisco's clever deal for the productive Aoki.
Why It Will Work
Aoki's skill set will be a perfect fit for general manager Brian Sabean, manager Bruce Bochy and the San Francisco Giants.
Several contenders would have benefited from Aoki's services, but in the end, the defending champs gobbled up the 33-year-old on a one-year, $4 million deal. At that price, Aoki is a steal.
The outfielder hit .285 with a .349 OBP for the Kansas City Royals in 2014. Despite lacking much power, Aoki has carved out a niche for himself as a high-contact hitter with great plate discipline.
As mentioned above, Aoki walks nearly as much as he strikes out. He's not going to bang the ball off the outfield walls, but he will consistently give his club quality at-bats. With power declining throughout the league, Aoki's approach at the plate is a snapshot of what productive table-setters will look like going forward.
Left-handed hitters are supposed to struggle against same-side pitchers, but Aoki has raked against southpaws in his career. He hit .363 against lefties in 2014, and he boasts a career average of .319. Aoki hits lefties better than righties, giving him even more value because he doesn't need a platoon.
San Francisco will now enter the season with four functional outfielders. Bochy has the luxury of choosing between Aoki's bat or Gregor Blanco's glove in left field, providing the Giants with the versatility they look for when acquiring personnel.
Justin Masterson to the Boston Red Sox
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Key Stat
Masterson's career ground-ball rate is north of 56 percent.
What They Said
"Given how high the years and dollars climbed for Lester (and surely will for Max Scherzer and James Shields), Masterson's ground balls alone make him well worth the relatively tiny investment the Sox made to bring him back."
-Jonah Keri of Grantland on Masterson's biggest strength.
Why It Will Work
The Red Sox revamped their rotation this offseason, and although the staff contains its fair share of question marks, Masterson profiles as a bounce-back candidate in 2015.
Masterson's struggles in 2014 can be attributed mostly to injuries, as the right-hander posted a near 6.00 ERA in only 128.2 innings. He was dealt from Cleveland to St. Louis last season, before ultimately losing his spot in the rotation by year's end.
It's hard not to ignore those ugly numbers, but the 29-year-old had built quite the resume before his derailing in 2014. In 2011, Masterson logged 216 innings with an impressive 3.21 ERA, 3.28 FIP and 4.3 WAR. After a less successful campaign in 2012, the righty got back on track in 2013 with 3.45 ERA, 3.35 FIP and a career-high nine strikeouts per nine innings.
Those banner years convinced the Red Sox to offer Masterson a one-year, $9.5 million contract. Boston's commitment of a single year washes its hands clean of any long-term risk associated with another Masterson debacle in 2015.
Masterson's reputation as a ground-ball specialist should bode well in the hitter-friendly confines of Fenway Park. He's consistently induced groundouts from opposing hitters, as evidenced by his career 56.6 percent ground-ball percentage.
If Masterson can finish 2015 reasonably healthy, then the Red Sox will have one less starter to worry about this season.
Luke Gregerson to the Houston Astros
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Key Stat
Aside from 2011, Luke Gregerson appeared in at least 70 games in every season since his 2009 debut while posting a career 2.75 ERA and 2.99 FIP.
What They Said
"Here's the list of relief pitchers with ERAs of 2.75 or better for the past four full seasons: Craig Kimbrel, Koji Uehara and Gregerson."
-Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports on how Gregerson stacks up against other relievers.
Why It Will Work
You would be hard-pressed to find a more reliable reliever in baseball than Gregerson.
The 30-year-old made his major league debut in 2009, and he has been getting hitters out ever since. His highest ERA in that time span is a 3.24 mark, and he's currently on a run of four straight seasons with an ERA under 3.00.
Gregerson entered the league as a high strikeout/high walk guy, but those numbers have both dropped substantially since 2009. While fewer walks is obviously ideal, the right-hander has combated a dip in K's with an increase in groundouts.
The veteran reliever recorded a career-high 52.2 percent ground-ball rate in 2014. Gregerson's two-seam and four-seam fastballs have generated groundouts more than 50 percent of the time in his career, and he uses both of those pitches with confidence early in the count to get ahead.
Gregerson then uses his wipeout slider to finish at-bats. Opposing hitters have only managed a .180 average against the devastating slider, and it has created swinging strikes 20 percent of the time. It's not out of the question to call Gregerson's slider one of the best pitches in baseball.
While Gregerson is more than deserving of his three-year, $18.5 million deal, it's pretty interesting that the Houston Astros were the team to give it to him. The Astros are steadily improving, but the club's window will begin to realistically open in 2016. A high-dollar reliever that's not a closer is a luxury that you would think Houston would rather address down the road.
But Gregerson immediately improves Houston's bullpen, which only enhances the team's chances of competing in 2015. In a worst-case scenario, flipping Gregerson to a desperate contender at the deadline wouldn't be too difficult of a task when you consider how consistent he's been throughout his career.
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Jason Grilli to the Atlanta Braves
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Key Stat
Recorded a sub-3.00 ERA in three straight seasons from 2011-2013 with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
What They Said
"He has a real good idea what his role will be with the Braves, and it damn sure won't be as the closer for as long as Craig Kimbrel is healthy and on the roster. And Grilli is fine with that. After all, most of his career was not spent in the glamorous role of closer."
-David O'Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution on Grilli's expected impact on the Atlanta bullpen.
Why It Will Work
You may start to sense a theme as you progress through this list, as Grilli's deal with the Atlanta Braves is another situation in which a former productive player is hoping to rebound from an ugly 2014.
The 38-year-old veteran has been around since the start of the new millennium, but he really didn't become a valuable late-inning commodity until he joined the Pittsburgh Pirates.
From 2011-2013, Grilli finished each season with a sub-3.00 ERA and over 10 K's per nine. That includes an incredible All-Star season in 2013, when the right-hander saved 33 games, struck out a remarkable 13 hitters per nine and posted an ERA of 2.70.
The right-hander began the 2014 season in Pittsburgh, before injuries and inconsistencies led to his departure. After being dealt to the Los Angeles Angels, Grilli regained some resemblance of his old form by recording a 3.48 ERA in 40 appearances setting up closer Huston Street.
As O'Brien reported in the article above, Grilli is being brought on to perform in a similar role for Braves all-world closer Craig Kimbrel. Atlanta has been fantastic at piecing together some of the best bullpens in baseball over the past few seasons under pitching coach Roger McDowell.
As Mark Townsend at Yahoo Sports puts it, "predicting reliever production is as difficult these days as predicting an NFL game" and that "the more options you have with experience and past success, the better chance you'll find enough guys to field a good bullpen."
Grilli fits that description, and a healthy start to the 2015 season could see him return to his peak form for the Braves.
Seth Smith to the Seattle Mariners
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Key Stat
Smith has destroyed right-handed pitching in his career, with a .277 average, 123 wRC+ and an isolated power rating of .204.
What They Said
"And for a team looking to add a corner bench or platoon bat this offseason, it would have been hard for the Mariners to do better."
-Paul Swydan of FanGraphs on Smith's potential impact in Seattle.
Why It Will Work
The 2014 San Diego Padres offense stunk: plain and simple. The club finished last in MLB in runs, average and OBP, wasting the quality production of one of the league's best staffs.
New general manager A.J. Preller went above and beyond in addressing his team's offensive deficiencies this winter, acquiring Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Wil Myers, Will Middlebrooks and Derek Norris to beef up the San Diego lineup.
Smith sure wasn't the reason for the offensive woes in San Diego in 2014, but the aging outfielder became excess to requirements after a busy offseason. The Seattle Mariners swooped in for Smith, hoping to add a quality left-handed bat to their roster.
The 32-year-old will join the Mariners after just one quality season with the Padres. Smith led the team or was in the top five in average, OBP, wRC+ and WAR in 2014, proving he's got plenty left to offer.
When you glance at Smith's career numbers, he seems like a very average player. He's a career .265 hitter, with above-average plate discipline and mediocre power. But Smith's most attractive trait is the damage he does to right-handed pitching.
Smith's .273 career average against righties is rather pedestrian, but his 123 wRC+, .204 isolated power mark and .839 OPS show that the outfielder is an extra-base hit juggernaut in those situations. Seventy-seven of his 85 career dingers have also come against right-handers.
Although he's a lifetime .205 hitter against lefties, Smith has held his own against southpaws over the last two seasons. Still, Smith's value is his ability to do one thing very well, and that's how the emerging Mariners will utilize him.
Seattle also acquired outfielder Justin Ruggiano from the Chicago Cubs, whom Smith will likely platoon with in right field. Ruggiano's splits against left-handed pitching are similarly favorable to Smith's against righties, with the former Chicago Cub recording a 129 wRC+ and a .241 isolated power mark.
Smith will get the majority of the playing time due to most major league pitchers being righties, but the Mariners have cleverly created a two-headed monster in right field on the cheap.
Nathan Eovaldi to the New York Yankees
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Key Stat
In 2014, Eovaldi's average fastball velocity of 95.5 mph ranked fourth in MLB.
What They Said
"Eovaldi is an average to above-average starter now, with further upside. He belongs to the Yankees for three years, at least. He's the most talented player in the trade, and while that alone can't tell you which side did better, the Yankees are unquestionably pleased."
-Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs on the deal that brought Eovaldi to the Bronx.
Why It Will Work
The New York Yankees' best move of the offseason didn't come via a free-agent splurge but rather a creative trade with the Miami Marlins for a young hurler with tremendous upside.
Eovaldi will sport the prestigious pinstripes of the Yankees in 2015, after two seasons in Miami. New York was able to wrangle Eovaldi away from the Fish for Martin Prado and David Phelps, a fantastic coup by the Yankees front office.
The 24-year-old fell just shy of logging 200 innings for the first time in his career last season in 33 starts. Although his 4.37 ERA seems alarmingly high, his 3.37 FIP and 3.0 WAR indicate the right-hander was pretty valuable in 2014.
This probably isn't the first time you've heard of Eovaldi, as pundits and scouts alike have developed an infatuation with the youngster. That love affair stems from Eovaldi's immense hype due to his elite velocity.
Eovaldi's heater often reaches triple digits, and his average fastball speed of 95.5 ranked fourth in MLB last season. At 6'2", 215 pounds, Eovaldi's frame can support his flaming arsenal, something that is often a worry when it comes to young power arms.
But why did the Marlins let Eovaldi go?
Despite his velocity, the strikeouts have yet to pile up. Eovaldi hasn't exceeded seven K's per nine in his young career. While this may be a little alarming, it can also be chalked up to Eovaldi's lack of developed secondary pitches, something he's rapidly improving as he progresses.
His slider in particular is becoming an effective major league pitch. He's seen a rise from a 10 percent swinging strike rate in 2011 to a 15.9 percent mark last season. Opposing hitters have been held to a lowly .217 career average against that pitch.
With a near 10-mph difference between his fastball and slider and a 20-mph drop from fastball to curve, Eovaldi's likelihood of increasing his strikeout totals looks very bright.
For the Yankees, dealing for a pitcher with elite stuff may end up being the most underrated move of the winter.
Brandon Moss to the Cleveland Indians
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Key Stat
Since 2012, Moss ranks 20th in MLB with 130 wRC+ and eighth in MLB with a .249 isolated power rating.
What They Said
"Moss has hit 76 home runs over the last three years, more than any Indians player, and he played his home games in Oakland, where left-handed power is suppressed as much as any park in the American League. Progressive Field, meanwhile, is one of the most friendly parks for left-handed power."
-August Fagerstrom of FanGraphs on how Progressive Field should only improve Moss' power numbers.
Why It Will Work
The Cleveland Indians won 85 games, but they failed to qualify for the postseason; however a quality roster figures to be contenders again in 2015.
When a team is right on the cusp of the playoffs, any offseason move could be the one that pushes them over the hump. For the Indians, Brandon Moss may be that guy.
Moss has developed into one of the better power hitters in baseball. Since 2012, Moss has gone deep 76 times and has driven in 220 runs. He ranks 20th in MLB in wRC+ over that time span, while his .249 isolated power rating proves he's generating tons of extra-base hits.
As you would expect, Moss has a tendency to whiff, but he's posted consecutive seasons with walk rates of over 10 percent, so his plate discipline isn't overly concerning. He's also put together more than adequate seasons against left-handed pitching to date, although those numbers are not as impressive as his onslaught against righties.
Continuing the glowing analysis of this move, Moss should be even more valuable at Progressive Field.
As Fagerstrom's article mentions, Cleveland's home ballpark increases left-handed power production by nine percent, while the O.co Coliseum suppresses it by 12 percent. Moving from the deeper dimensions in Oakland to the hitter-friendly blueprint in Cleveland makes a healthy Moss a 30-to-35 homer candidate.
The Tribe were in desperate need of a power surge in their lineup, with Yan Gomes and Carlos Santana profiling as the only sluggers on the squad. Michael Brantley was a star last season, but it remains to be seen if he can duplicate his home run numbers again in 2015.
Regardless, Moss instantly gives the Indians big-time punch in the heart of the order and could be the missing ingredient to a playoff berth.
Advanced stats via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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