Mike Alvarado vs. Brandon Rios: Preview and Prediction for Welterweight Bout
There's nothing like a trilogy in boxing. And we have a terrific one coming up in Broomfield, Colorado, on Saturday, where former champions Mike Alvarado and Brandon Rios will face off for a rubber match. Each of these guys handed the other his first professional loss.
This time out, both men are fighting to stay relevant in the sport's most competitive division. Alvarado has lost three of his last four, while Rios has two of his last three.
It may only be January, but this fight could end up being a shortlist contender for Fight of the Year.
HBO will broadcast the fight at 9:45 p.m. ET.
Tale of the Tape
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| Per BoxRec | Mike Alvarado | Brandon Rios |
| Record: | 34-3, 23 KOs | 32-3-1, 23 KOs |
| Height: | 5'9" | 5'8" |
| Reach: | 69.5" | 68" |
| Weight: | 147 lbs | 147 lbs |
| Age: | 34 | 28 |
| Stance: | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hometown: | Denver, Colorado | Oxnard, California |
| Rounds: | 204 | 193 |
"Mile High" Mike Alvarado will be fighting Brandon Rios in front of a hometown crowd on Saturday. Their first bout took place near Rios' base of operations at the Home Depot Center in Carson, California, and the rematch was in Las Vegas.
In their first two fights, the age difference didn't appear to be significant. This time around, it's worth noting. Since his first two wars with Rios, Alvarado took a brutal pounding from Ruslan Provodnikov and lost a physical fight to Juan Manuel Marquez, so he has a lot of miles on his 34-year-old tires.
Alvarado has a slight reach advantage and exploited it fully in the second fight between these two.
Main Storylines
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When Mike Alvarado and Brandon Rios squared off for the first time in October 2012, boxing fans expected a great fight. They are two of the most rugged, offensive-minded fighters of this generation.
And the first fight lived up to the hype. After six back-and-forth rounds, Rios stopped Alvarado on his feet in Round 7, losing by TKO.
An immediate rematch took place in March 2013. I interviewed both men before that fight. Alvarado vowed to box more intelligently and "make it a frustrating fight for Brandon."
Rios doubted Alvarado would be able to resist getting drawn into a slugfest: "Once the fight happens, he's going to fall back onto his instincts, just like me."
But Alvarado stayed true to his prediction. In what was still a high-action fight, Alvarado controlled the range and angles and landed better from the outside to earn a clear unanimous decision.
Even though Rios was the loser in that fight, Bob Arum and Top Rank tapped him as Manny Pacquiao's pay-per-view opponent in November 2013. Rios lost a one-sided decision.
Alvarado lost his WBO light welterweight title to Ruslan Provodnikov in October 2013, taking a brutal beating and getting stopped in Round 10. He lost again in May 2014 to Juan Manuel Marquez.
This is a legacy-defining fight for both men, and each one needs to win to stay in the hunt for big fights in the welterweight division.
Strengths
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Mike Alvarado is a rugged and durable boxer-brawler. He has outstanding conditioning, a solid chin and enough punching power to be dangerous.
He also has decent boxing skill and used it to win the last fight between these two. He controlled the range in the last fight, forcing Rios to keep turning, while scoring heavily with right hands over the top of Rios' jab.
Brandon Rios is a gritty, hard-nosed warrior who loves to fight. He has one of the best chins in the sport and does not hesitate to take one or two to give one back in return.
Boxing fans sometimes dismiss Rios as a pure brawler, but they shouldn't underestimate his craft on the inside. His ability to cover up and then return quickly with uppercuts and compact hooks makes him a grueling opponent.
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Weaknesses
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Mike Alvarado has been in four straight brutal fights, dating back to his first meeting with Rios. It's hard not to think that will take a toll on a 34-year-old fighter.
Alvarado also has legal problems hanging over his head as he prepares for this fight, having been arrested on a weapons charge earlier this month. That could be weighing on him mentally.
Brandon Rios has always had trouble with movement. He was lucky to get a split decision over Richar Abril in April 2012.
Alvarado's control of range and angles allowed him to beat Rios in their rematch. Manny Pacquiao's quick movement turned Rios into a defenseless target.
Mike Alvarado Will Win If...
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Mike Alvarado implemented the blueprint for beating Brandon Rios in their last fight. Although it was still a high-action slugfest, Alvarado managed to circle well from the outside, maintaining enough distance to counter Rios again and again with right hands over the top of Rios' jab.
But he still took a lot of punishment in the fight. Since that night, Alvarado has been through two more wars, against Ruslan Provodnikov and Juan Manuel Marquez.
To win, Alvarado will need to do what he did last time against Rios, but to do that, he'll have to be the same durable, high-energy fighter he was two years ago. That might be a lot to ask from him.
Alvarado has a habit of leaning forward in the pocket, and Rios exploited that with punishing uppercuts in both of their first two fights. Alvarado should look to minimize the damage he takes in this fight by circling back behind his jab instead of leaning forward when Rios manages to press the action in tight.
It might be tough for Alvarado to resist his warrior's instinct to stand and trade, though.
Brandon Rios Will Win If...
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Brandon Rios is going to fight the way he fights. That means coming forward and absorbing punishment while looking to inflict his own. He wins fights by turning them into battles of attrition and then being the tougher, more durable fighter.
So to win the rubber match with Mike Alvarado, Rios is going to need to force as much of the action as possible into the pocket. In both of the first two fights, he consistently got the better of the exchanges on the inside.
Rios needs to use his jab to press his way in tight, but there's a risk in that. Last fight, Alvarado made him pay a high price for jabbing by countering over the top with heavy right hands.
Rios needs to try to do a better job of returning his jab into a good defensive position. He can also make it tougher for Alvarado to counter him if he varies up the speed and rhythm of his jab.
In close, Rios should let his hands go, looking to score with uppercuts, hooks and chopping overhands.
Prediction
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If this fight had taken place immediately after the first two, I would probably picked Mike Alvarado. But two years is a long time in boxing, especially for a fighter over 30 who has been through the kind of wars Alvarado has.
When I factor in the brutality Alvarado has absorbed the past two years alongside the aggravations of his legal problems, I have to go with the younger, slightly more durable Brandon Rios. Alvarado's win in their last fight was a gritty performance. He maintained his strategic focus while enduring a war.
It will stand as the highlight of his career, but it's unlikely he'll be able to duplicate it on Saturday. It's going to be another war, but I'm picking Rios by Round 8 stoppage.
Where that will leave Rios in the welterweight division is unclear. I don't see him as a champion, but I do expect him to settle in for another couple of years as a dangerous gatekeeper.
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