Ranking the Top 10 Men's Tennis Players Heading into 2015 Australian Open

With all due respect to the ATP Rankings, the 2015 Australian Open draw and the status of the top stars in the world give a very different outlook on who is best positioned to challenge for the year's first major.

With this in mind, we are going to rank the players according to how they have played in recent months and how their respective games stack up to win on moderately slow hard courts in Australia's summer season.

There are plenty of players outside the Top 10 who could make a run into the second week of the tournament or cause an important upset or two. Nobody really wants to face talented athletes like No. 19 Gael Monfils or powerful No. 12 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

There are other dangerous players like No. 10 Grigor Dimitrov, who marched to the 2014 Australian Open quarterfinals and always seems poised for a breakout or a flameout. There is big-serving John Isner and streaking No. 22 David Goffin.

But none of these players figure into our Top 10, and sadly neither does U.S. Open champion Marin Cilic, who is nursing an injured shoulder.

The following is our Top 10 players to contend for the title.

10. Ernests Gulbis

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Brash Ernests Gulbis would love nothing more than to dash the spirits of Melbourne's home crowd in his first-round meeting against young Aussie Thanasi Kokkinakis. Playing the part of Darth Vader is really nothing new for the talented but erratic Latvian, who will certainly provide at least a few theatrics if not several wins.

But in case anyone has forgotten, Gulbis was a semifinalist at the 2014 French Open. He commands blistering groundstrokes and is suited perfectly to counter big hopping topspin and torrid pace.

What he needs is composure and the kind of hot streak that he seems to create early in the tennis seasons the past couple of years. He believes he can get to No. 1 someday, and he is unafraid to compete against the likes of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal.

Gulbis is also in the Nadal quarter, which doesn't quite mean what it meant a year ago. There is also the fragile No. 7 seed Tomas Berdych and, possibly, upstart Jiri Vesely, who has plenty of power and more confidence after winning at Auckland.

We're not picking Gulbis to repeat a big-match win over Federer should they meet in the semifinals, but he is capable of defeating anyone on a given day, if he keeps his head and groundstrokes under control.

9. Milos Raonic

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If Milos Raonic is to become a Grand Slam champion, he will shake the perception that he is a large serving machine who happens to play tennis. And maybe that's a bit unfair, but his gangly proportions and plodding footwork are not good enough when he needs to play defensive tennis.

There is understandably skepticism when thinking about Raonic winning 21 sets over two weeks and against Top-10 players who have fewer holes in their game.

Raonic is more comfortable staying back, and he has worked hard on his groundstrokes, but he needs to dictate most of the points early or he will get ground down. His reluctance to play a more vertical game can hardly be blamed. He doesn't have Federer's quick feet and coordinated hands. Nevertheless, he is working to find more opportunities to come in.

Will it be enough to repeat his Wimbledon semifinal appearance or perhaps go further? Doubtful, especially when Novak Djokovic looms in the quarterfinals. But at least another draining big match with Kei Nishikori would not happen unless he could win his quarter.

8. Tomas Berdych

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Last year, Tomas Berdych's horrendous, vertical blue and white striped shirt (resembling Argentina's soccer jersey) clothed him all the way to the semifinals. This year's motley mess of attire could mean the final.

In all seriousness, there is nothing wrong with Berdych's beautiful groundstrokes, and that's the important part. He's a good server in fair conditions and has usually been consistent in putting away inferior opponents. He has a nice quarter if Nadal is not right, and he would arguably be the favorite there.

There are a few potential hazards like young Jiri Vesely in the third round. Ernests Gulbis could be a formidable force in the fourth round. If he faces Nadal in the quarterfinals, forget about it.

But as always, the question is if Berdych can string together three great matches in a row, similar to what Cilic did at the U.S. Open. He's had a long history of folding like a cheap lawn chair, and unless he is truly ready to go Stan Wawrinka and head-butt his mental demons, he will be spinning out the same tennis groove like an old 45 rpm record.

7. David Ferrer

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No, David Ferrer is not going to win the Australian Open title, but there is nobody more prepared for any match at any time. A long trip to the southern hemisphere, potentially hot weather and any manner of variables never seem to deter Ferrer. And he likes Melbourne.

Just once, it would be wonderful to see Ferrer hold up a major championship—the sort of hard-work-and-effort career achievement that Andres Gomez grabbed at the 1990 French Open and Ivan Ivanisevic obtained at 2001 Wimbledon.

Ferrer does not have the weapons of the very top players, but like the 2013 French Open, he could be one to take advantage of bracket chaos and make a second major final. But he would need a lot of chaos.

How about getting through a second week against Nishikori, Wawrinka, Djokovic and Federer. The little Spaniard does not have the firepower to overcome all of them, but he might be able to have his best days against two of them.

Until he hangs up his racket, Ferrer stubbornly imposes himself as a Top-10 player with iron-like consistency and heart. That has to count for something if not as a Grand Slam champion. 

6. Rafael Nadal

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Yes, it's possible that Rafael Nadal could win the Australian Open, but even he doesn't like his own chances.

Nadal explained at a news conference, via ESPN: "I don't consider myself one of the favorites here. I would be lying if I say I feel that I am ready to win." He talked about doubts and not being 100 percent confident.

Since Nadal fell from the No. 1 ranking last July, he has hardly been available to play. There have been a couple of sporadic comebacks, mingled with wrist problems and surgery for appendicitis. His play in recent weeks has not been the Nadal tennis fans have seen in the last decade.

There's a good chance he does not make it out of the first round against veteran Mikhail Youzhny. His opponent has a lot of experience, all-courts skills and plenty of composure and toughness to believe he should win that match. He knows Nadal comes in wounded.

But if Nadal can get by that match, his next few matches soften up a bit. He could rebuild his tenacity, find the rhythm of his footwork and start lining up his forehand as he darts in and out of the court from six meters beyond the baseline. He's going to need full conditioning, improved timing and growing belief.

If Nadal does play deep into the second week, just maybe he could turn his bad Australian Open karma upside down and shock the world. If he is asked to finish off a pair of big matches, his history speaks for itself. But it's going to require a grueling grind and his body and mind will need to be 100 percent.

5. Andy Murray

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It seems that Andy Murray's career and legacy will always be on trial, even after conquering the most important hurdles in his career. The 2015 Australian Open will not break his career should he falter, but a title could make for another very special chapter.

Murray could play himself into confidence and contention before a potential massive quarterfinal showdown with Roger Federer. It probably would not end well for the Scot, given the humiliation he received from the Swiss Maestro at London's WTF last November. For Murray's sake, we'll omit the match score for that one.

We're most interested to see if Murray does indeed have more great tennis left. Two years ago he was a U.S. Open champion, Australian Open finalist and headed toward a Wimbledon title. Does he still have enough offensive aggression and defensive tenacity to grind out impressive big matches?

I refuse to believe Murray is finished. Good things will happen for him again, sooner or later. Let's see if it will be sooner.

4. Kei Nishikori

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There's a lot to love about Kei Nishikori's ascension as the most improved player of 2014 to launch into the Top 10 rankings. He improved his stamina and durability, increased his offensive power and contended at big tournaments, capped by his U.S. Open semifinal win over World No. 1 Djokovic.

Nishikori played well in the Asia-Pacific region in the fall, roaring into the WTF year-end tournament and looking like he could stay near the top five, if not win a a major someday.

Last year, he battled Nadal in the fourth round, putting up three tough sets, which was quickly forgotten because of the blister story that swirled around Nadal. Nishikori has to believe that he can win a couple more matches this time around, as long as his legs are fresh and his early strokes are able to create sharp angles.

He has troubled but physically gifted Nicolas Almagro in the first round, but if he rolls early, his opponent could pack it in. This would most certainly not occur in the fourth round if he plays David Ferrer, a warrior who rarely gives less than a full-hearted assault when he plays tennis.

It's going to be tough to potentially get through a potential quarterfinal or semifinal against defending champion Wawrinka and four-time Australian titlist Djokovic. The tennis gods did not do Nishikori any favors.

But brackets have a way of imploding in unpredictable ways. Maybe Nishikori rolls like a typhoon while his best competitors get blown aside. He's going to need help, but he is at least a dark horse contender to win this championship.

3. Stanislas Wawrinka

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There's quite a gap between No. 2 Federer and anyone else you want to put at No. 3 for the moment. Would you bank on Nadal's past, Nishikori's upside or Raonic's attempts to develop a more complete game? Really, Wawrinka deserves the No. 3 contender's slot, but he's certainly no slam dunk.

Unlike last year, Wawrinka is no longer chasing down the top stars. Everything was a breakthrough a year ago, full of adrenaline as if he had brought to reality the proverbial zone. He defeated Djokovic, Berdych and Nadal on his way to capturing the title as the No. 8 seed.

This year he will be the hunted, and it will certainly be a different story however it turns out.

The case for Wawrinka winning the title is a good one. He loves the slower hard court surface on which he has a little more time to wind up his body and hit powerful shots. He's arguably the only player who can overpower Djokovic from the baseline, and he has shown that he is mentally resilient, even if at times his game can fluctuate like a nervous seismometer.

On the other hand, Wawrinka has not responded as well when expectations are high. His French Open was a flop, and some of his matches have produced insanely high counts of unforced errors. Stan the Man seemed to be pressing.

If he is to win, he will need to find the right blend of aggression and patience. It won't be easy in a draw that could see him try to prove his mettle against gunmen like Alexandr Dolgopolov, Nishikori and Djokovic. And that's just to get to the final.

But who else really deserves No. 3 right now?

2. Roger Federer

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Was Roger Federer just unlucky in 2014? He won two Masters 1000 titles (Cincinnati and Shanghai) and five titles, but he also fell short at the worst possible times.

Forget about the Nadal beating he took at the 2014 Australian Open semifinal or the finals losses at Indian Wells, Monte Carlo and Toronto. Forget about the No. 2 ranking he earned by late in the year.

He was agonizingly close at Wimbledon, and had he not run into a possessed Cilic, he might have carted off two majors. But of course those are only hypotheticals, and it doesn't help to wonder how Federer often fell short at the most important times.

But that's the concern for his 2015 Australian Open. Despite what some tennis fans might call a stiff draw, it really should not be hard for Federer to win his quarter. As long as Federer executes the way we expect, he should cruise rather easily through the likes of potential opponents like Jeremy Chardy, Dimitrov or Murray.

But for Federer, most of the past five years have seen his consistent brilliance interrupted by inexplicable poor performances at the worst times. It's just not that easy to get through an entire two-week draw at a major, and despite his experience and legendary accomplishments, Federer can break down.

I'm writing this because I feel that Federer's talent and brilliance should make him a heavy favorite to be a finalist, and unless he counters Djokovic, he should win it all.

Federer's key? Stay sharp and consistent each set. If he unravels or gifts a set, it has a tendency to bite him. Just be Roger Federer, and that's all it will take to get back to the final, if not win it all.

1. Novak Djokovic

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Recently we discussed just how safe or difficult it is in being a top seed at the Australian Open. Since the Australian Open went to hard courts, the No. 1 seed has won the title 11 of 27 times. But Djokovic always seems like better than a 41 percent chance.

ESPN featured 12 picks from their top tennis analysts and writers, and eight of the 12 picked Djokovic (two chose Roger Federer and one apiece for Kei Nishikori and Milos Raonic).

First of all, there are concerns about Djokovic's health as the tournament gets under way. ESPN reported Djokovic had picked up a flu virus at recent tournaments in the Middle East.

The Serbian affirmed that he was improving: "I had a tough couple of days, it's all behind me now. It was a little bit of a cold, and flu, stomach ... maybe carried that from the Middle East, but now it's passed."

He should cruise in the first week, unless possible third-round opponent Fernando Verdasco thinks it's 2009 and someone like Isner or Dominic Thiem doesn't catch fire.

If Raonic takes care of business to get to the quarterfinals, Djokovic will have to contend with his serving, and although the Serbian is the far superior player, Raonic always has a puncher's chance.

Djokovic would also love to avenge last year's loss to Wawrinka if they meet in the semifinals. And then could Federer be waiting in the final? It's a long road to a title, but he is the frontrunner.

Djokovic is usually the default No. 1 favorite, but especially at Melbourne, where he hopes to win a record-breaking fifth Australian Open championship in the Open era. An eighth major would also tie him with legends Jimmy Connors, Ivan Lendl and Andre Agassi.