How Safe Are the Top Men's Seeds at the 2015 Australian Open?

The top men’s seeds at the 2015 Australian Open are strong favorites, but certainly not a lock to win the year’s first major. It’s never as simple as viewing the seeding, examining the draw and expecting that the favorites will methodically advance.

Ask last year’s surprise winner, No. 8 Stanislas Wawrinka. Tennis fans might have respected his thunderous groundstrokes and edgy determination, but few predicted he would bash his way through Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal to claim the title. Casual sports fans may still wonder how a Swiss champion not named Roger Federer was able to win Down Under.

And that’s a cautionary tale for tennis fans who would dismiss the strength and depth of the ATP field and the possibility, even likelihood, that there will be unexpected bracket chaos. There are several dangerous seeds just inside the Top 10, and more than a few others who could contend at Melbourne.

Top Seeds Never a Certainty

How likely is it that Djokovic, Federer, Nadal or this year’s new No. 4 seed Wawrinka make it to the final and win?

Since 1988, when the Australian Open began a new era on hard courts, there have been 27 winners and 54 finalists. We will figure the percentages of championships from 27 and also the number of finals appearances from his side of the bracket (also 27).

• No. 1 seeds got to the final from the top half of the bracket 14 times (52 percent). They have won 11 titles (41 percent).
• No. 2 seeds got to the final from the bottom half of the bracket 10 times (37 percent). They have won six titles (22 percent).

We can conclude that No. 1 seeds are significantly more likely to make the final than No. 2 seeds, and that they are nearly twice as likely to win it. This bodes well for Djokovic’s No. 1 seed this year, but indicates that it’s less than likely that No. 2 Federer will make the final.

• No. 3 seeds got to the final seven times (26 percent). They have won three titles (11 percent).
• No. 4 seeds got to the final three times (11 percent). They have won two titles (7 percent).

This is quite a drop for the next two seeds. It’s difficult to think of No. 3 seed Nadal as having about a one-in-10 chance of winning the title, and with the compounding difficulties of his recent return and rustiness, his odds could be lower than this. Wawrinka will not find it easy to defend his title as a No. 4 seed.

Still, we can see that 34 of the 54 finals slots are won by the top four seeds (63 percent). This is very dominant, and it leaves only 20 slots (37 percent) to the rest of the field.

Aaron Favila/Associated Press

What This Could Mean for the Rest

What about other contending seeds like No. 5 Kei Nishikori, No. 6 Andy Murray and No. 8 Milos Raonic? How do they figure in with history’s chances for the next tier of top seeds?

This is where it gets a little crazy.

Here are remaining 20 seeds who have been finalists:

• 1989, No. 9 Milos Mecir
• 1994, No. 9 Todd Martin
• 1996, No. 5 Michael Chang
• 1997, Unseeded Carlos Moya
• 1998, No. 6 Petr Korda
• 1998, No. 9 Marcelo Rios
• 1999, No. 10 Yevgeny Kafelnikov
• 1999, Unseeded Thomas Enqvist
• 2001, No. 6 Andre Agassi
• 2001, No. 15 Arnaud Clement
• 2002, No. 16 Thomas Johansson
• 2002, No. 9 Marat Safin
• 2003, No. 31 Rainer Schuttler
• 2004, Unseeded Marat Safin
• 2006, Unseeded Marcos Baghdatis
• 2007, No. 10 Fernando Gonzalez
• 2008, Unseeded Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
• 2010, No. 5 Andy Murray
• 2011, No. 5 Andy Murray
• 2014, No. 8 Stanislas Wawrinka

You might have noticed that the No. 9 seed has been a finalist four times. The point is that there is almost no difference between seeds 5-9 and probably higher. Many seeded players from No. 5-16 have a chance, but it’s a slim chance.

Another way of looking at it is to look at this year’s No. 5 seed Kei Nishikori. Our data shows that a field of unseeded players—at least No. 17 and below until the field expanded to 32 players in 2002—is more likely to appear in a final than Kei Nishikori. It doesn’t mean the individual unseeded players are better than Nishikori, but that the collective group is about an even bet.

We can basically say the same thing about No. 6 Murray, No. 7 Thomas Berdych, No. 8 Raonic and so forth.

But the thing to remember is that it’s not likely we will have more than one of these players crack a final. Only four times in this 27-year sample has produced both finalists seeded below No. 4, and those years (1998, 1999, 2001, 2002) were a time of flux for tennis, argued by many tennis fans as a weak transitional period and not really an era ruled by a dominant champion.

Since 2004, the advent of the Federer era, only seven of the 22 finalist slots were filled by seeds No. 5 or lower. Only Wawrinka walked away with the championship trophy.

The top four seeds are not infallible, but they are clearly at a much higher level than the rest of the field. It doesn’t mean that No. 10 Grigor Dimitrov can’t win the Australian Open, but it’s extremely unlikely.