AFC Championship Game 2015: DraftKings Fantasy Guide for Colts vs. Patriots

Filling out a roster for daily fantasy football leagues only gets more difficult as the postseason continues.

While the regular season gave competitors 32 teams to choose from in most weeks, Championship Game Weekend leaves only four teams to create a winning roster. This means the options at each position are extremely limited. 

The good news is there are still ways to find value while avoiding overpriced talent at each position. Here is a look at how to navigate the difficult weekend with players in the AFC Championship Game.

Note: All prices are courtesy of DraftKings.

Best Values: Daniel Herron ($5,900), Brandon LaFell ($6,000), Donte Moncrief ($3,500)

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Daniel "Boom" Herron might not have been a factor for most of the regular season, but he has become a workhorse at running back for the Indianapolis Colts. While he hasn't piled up tons of yards—119 rushing yards in two postseason games—he has been a major factor as a receiver out of the backfield with 18 catches in two games.

For leagues that recognize points per reception, this is a great way to rack up the points.

This offensive strategy is likely to continue into the matchup against the New England Patriots. According to Mike Wells of ESPN.com, Colts coach Chuck Pagano said of Andrew Luck's recent play:

"

You're going to take what the defense gives you and he's making great decisions right now. He's managing things well on the offensive side of the football obviously. The backs, if they elect to play deep and over the top and take away things down the field, then he's never going to turn down a profit, so to speak. So we've had success of late with the checkdowns to the back and they've been a big part of our success of late. He's doing a great job, he's making great decisions and he'll need to do the same thing on Sunday.

"

If Luck is going to stay with the checkdowns, Herron will remain a PPR fantasy star.

At receiver, fantasy owners would be smart to draft Brandon LaFell despite the fact the receiver is dealing with some injuries this week. He certainly has earned the confidence from quarterback Tom Brady:

Mike Loyko of USA Today notes LaFell's importance on the roster:

While Julian Edelman might get more targets over the course of a game, LaFell remains a major part of the offense and is much more likely to score. For a cheaper cost (Edelman is worth $7,200), it's better to find value in LaFell.

Finally, these types of games usually require a low-cost, high-upside option to save money for other parts of the team. Donte Moncrief fits this description despite the fact he only has five receptions in the past two games.

Outside of T.Y. Hilton, no one in the Colts' receiving corps has been a consistent option, but Moncrief has shown a better ability to get open than either Hakeem Nicks or Reggie Wayne lately. With his speed, he only needs to break free one time to get a big score and make him worth the risk of drafting him.

Players to Avoid: Tom Brady ($8,500), LeGarrette Blount ($4,500), Coby Fleener ($4,300)

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Tom Brady is coming off an outstanding game against the Baltimore Ravens, throwing three touchdowns and 367 yards in the win. Of course, this was easier against a below-average secondary that has dealt with major injuries throughout the year.

Conversely, the Colts have played great pass defense and have only gotten better in the playoffs. Andy Dalton and Peyton Manning combined to throw for just 366 yards and one touchdown in two games. 

This weekend gives you the option to play one of four elite fantasy quarterbacks. It wouldn't be wise to pick the most expensive one in Brady when he is facing a tough opponent. Saving money by drafting Russell Wilson is probably the best play if that is an option.

Meanwhile, fantasy owners will need some sort of inside information if they want to draft LeGarrette Blount. The veteran seemed like a great play a week ago but managed just three carries for one yard against the Ravens.

There is certainly upside with any of Blount, Shane Vereen, Jonas Gray or Brandon Bolden. Rich Hill noted how well this group has fared against the Colts in the past:

However, each one poses a huge risk considering they could be shut out on a given week. If you have other options, it might be best to avoid the whole group.

It might be even tougher to decide who to play at tight end with a relatively underwhelming group. Coby Fleener might represent a quality option thanks to his ability to make plays all over the field, but Luck doesn't usually look his way when the team gets into the red zone.

Dwayne Allen has been the better scoring option when he is healthy, as Brad Evans of Yahoo Sports noted:

For the cost, Fleener is simply not a great option due to his low ceiling.

The Gronk Question

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The toughest decision most fantasy owners will have going into a week like this is whether or not to draft Rob Gronkowski. 

Player	Team	Cost*
Rob Gronkowski	NE	$7,800
Coby Fleener	IND	$4,300
Luke Willson	SEA	$4,000
Dwayne Allen	IND	$3,800
Andrew Quarless	GB	$2,600

There is no doubt he is the best tight end available by a wide margin. The problem is the cost to select him reflects that, as he is almost double the price of anyone else at the position.

With this situation, the important thing to remember is that you want people who can score points regardless of position. After getting into the end zone in four straight games and 13 times total this year including the playoffs, it's clear Gronkowski fits into this category.

If you are looking for a safe option to get your fantasy points, there might not be a smarter play than the Patriots tight end.

Obviously, this means you will have to save money in other places. However, you might have a better chance of taking a risk on a team's second or third receiver as opposed to the tight ends available.

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