Packers vs. Seahawks: Updated Odds, Predictions for NFC Championship Game 2015

The Seattle Seahawks are laughing at your notion of NFL parity this season, and now they are one win away from reaching the Super Bowl for the second straight year. Never mind that no team has done that since 2004, this group is playing dominant football at the right time.

All that stands in Seattle’s way is a date with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.

Seattle beat Green Bay in the season opener to the tune of 36-16, but this Packers team has won 12 of 14 games and is also playing formidable football at the end of the season. Here is a look at the essential information for the NFC Championship Game before digging into some predictions.

2015 NFC Championship Game

Matchup: Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks

Date: Sunday, Jan. 18

Time: 3:05 p.m. ET

Where: CenturyLink Field, Seattle, Washington

TV: Fox

Odds: Seahawks -7.5 (via Odds Shark, as of Thursday at 2 p.m. ET)

Predictions

Aaron Rodgers Will Be Sacked at Least 3 Times

It is a testament to Rodgers’ greatness that he led his team to victory over the Dallas Cowboys in the divisional round because he could barely move in the pocket with his calf injury. His injury takes away a part of his arsenal because he is a threat to run when things break down, even if he doesn’t take off downfield often.

In the season opener against Seattle, a healthy Rodgers was sacked three times, including one that led to a fumble and safety. 

Now that Rodgers is hurt, it is difficult to see him escaping pressure up front. The Seahawks don’t blitz a lot, but their dominant defensive line had its way with the Packers in the first matchup. Expect even more of that this time around with an immobile Rodgers sitting in the pocket like an exposed target.

Eddie Lacy Will Top 100 Rushing Yards

Mike McGinnis/Getty Images

With Rodgers ailing, the Packers will counter by riding Eddie Lacy and the running game. If nothing else, a steady commitment to the run will freeze the defensive line momentarily before it attacks Rodgers on passing plays.

The problem is, Lacy only managed to run for 34 yards against Seattle the first time around, but he is playing his best football of the season as of late. He finished with 1,139 rushing yards in the regular season and torched Dallas for 101 on only 19 carries. 

Counting that playoff game, Lacy has run for 97 or more yards in six of the last seven contests and topped 100 three different times. The offensive line is coming together and creating gaps, which has led to impressive production, as Ryan Wood of the Green Bay Press-Gazette noted:

Seattle’s defense is still third in the league against the run, but if there is even a glimmer of hope at beating the Seahawks, it is through control of the game on the ground, as this chart from ESPN Stats & Info highlights:

	In Wins	In Losses
Rush PG	21.5	32.5
Rush YPG	67.7	138.8
Yds per rush	3.2	4.3
Rush TD	3	5

The Carolina Panthers tallied an impressive 132 rushing yards in the divisional round and should have given Jonathan Stewart more than 13 carries considering he was averaging better than five yards a pop. Look for Green Bay to give Lacy more of a chance to make an impact.

Seahawks Will Win

Even if Lacy has a big day, there are too many signs pointing in Seattle’s direction.

The Seahawks have won eight playoff games in a row at home and have 25 wins in their last 27 games in CenturyLink Field. The crowd and physical defense was too much for the Packers in the opener, and that was with a healthy Rodgers and the possibility of a Super Bowl hangover in Seattle.

It’s not all about defense and the deafening home crowd either considering Russell Wilson has 12 touchdown passes and only two interceptions in his last eight games, including the three touchdowns he threw against Carolina in the divisional round.

He discussed his production as the playoffs continue, according to STATS LLC, via ESPN.com: "Sometimes I think I'm made for these situations. I just try to be prepared for us. When you're prepared, you're never scared."

Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

Seattle also finished first in the NFL in rushing yards and will control the clock against a mediocre Packers defense (23rd against the run) with Marshawn Lynch. Lynch had 110 rushing yards and two touchdowns against Green Bay in the opener and should find some more holes to run through Sunday. 

That, combined with the best defense and home-field advantage in the league, will be too much for an ailing Rodgers and the Packers.

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