AFC Championship Game 2015: Winner, Score Predictions for Colts vs. Patriots

There could be a passing of the guard in the AFC on Sunday.

Tom Brady, one of the most accomplished playoff quarterbacks in NFL history, will defend his home turf in Foxborough, Massachusetts, against Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts. Luck, of course, is making his first-ever appearance in the AFC Championship Game.

New England has dominated Indianapolis in their three most recent meetings, as The Boston Globe tweets:

Will this contest be just as one-sided as the past handful? We'll have to wait until Sunday to find out exactly what happens, but for now, the following predictions will have to hold you over.

Prediction

Luck is an inexperienced quarterback when it comes to late-playoff situations. That said, he has progressed during each of his pro seasons, as The Boston Globe's Ben Volin points out:

Should he follow the same trend of a one-game improvement per season, that would put him on track to make a Super Bowl appearance next year.

The chances of that are likely. Luck is one of the most dynamic, exciting young players in the sport, but personnel issues will likely keep Indy out of the title game this season.

Luck has averaged 39 pass attempts in the 18 games he has played. That's far too many, but it isn't his fault. Without a capable running back who can carry the ball reliably 20 times a game, the Colts will prove too one-dimensional to make it to the pinnacle of the sport.

Picking up a running back in the offseason in free agency or the draft will put the Colts in position to take that final leap during next year's playoffs.

Conversely, the Patriots can run the ball effectively when they set their hearts to pounding it on the ground. A bevy of running backs get carries each week, even though LeGarrette Blount and Shane Vereen are the main contributors. Colts head coach Chuck Pagano knows that it is imperative to stop the run on Sunday:

If Pagano's defense can't stop the run (which it had moderate success doing during the regular season, ranking 18th in the NFL), then Brady is going to use that to his advantage—and it won't be pretty for the Colts.

Brady is unstoppable with a run game to work with. He executes the play-action pass well without the run working. With Blount and Vereen gaining consistent yardage on every touch, defenses will play up to stop them. That's when Brady can whip out the deep ball.

The Patriots also have arguably the most dynamic weapon in this game. There isn't a man in the league who can cover Rob Gronkowski. Look for him and Brady to find paydirt at least once during the game. The Colts allowed 10 touchdowns to the position this season, per ESPN, one of just nine teams to issue double-digit scores to tight ends.

All of these factors make this seem like a cupcake for the Patriots, but Luck will at least keep it close. He has too many talented wide receivers capable of creating problems for New England's solid secondary.

The downfall will be how predictable the Colts offense will become after the first quarter. The Colts will try their best to get Daniel Herron going early, but as soon as that proves futile, they'll turn to Luck to take over.

It's hard to win in the NFL with a one-dimensional offense. Maybe next year, Colts fans.

Patriots win, 31-23

Follow Kenny DeJohn on Twitter: @kennydejohn