NFL Playoffs 2015: Schedule and Predictions for Conference Championships

Andrew Luck ruined our narrative.

It was supposed to be Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos going up against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game and Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers against the mighty Seattle Seahawks defense in the NFC Championship Game.

Instead, Luck and the Indianapolis Colts crashed the party with an upset win over the Broncos Sunday.

And there is nothing wrong with that.

Now, we will be treated to an underdog story amid the juggernauts remaining in the NFL playoffs. Here is a look at the schedule and predictions for both conference championship clashes.

Matchups	Date	Time	TV	Predicted Winner
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks	Sunday, Jan. 18	3 p.m. ET	Fox	Seahawks
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots	Sunday, Jan. 18	6:30 p.m. ET	CBS	Patriots

Key Storyline: Andrew Luck vs. Tom Brady

Elise Amendola/Associated Press

As mentioned, the emergence of the Colts threw off the seemingly predestined Manning vs. Brady storylines. Considering Manning did not look like himself down the stretch of the season or in the playoffs, this may actually set up for a more dramatic AFC Championship Game.

However, we have seen this game before this season.

The Patriots went into Indianapolis in Week 11 and dismantled the Colts to the tune of 42-20, although it was only 14-10 at the half. New England took off after intermission and sent a message to a fellow AFC contender that it was the favorite to reach the Super Bowl this season.

Luck threw for an impressive 303 yards, two touchdowns and a pick, while Brady tallied 257 yards, two touchdowns and two picks, but the Patriots got much more from the running game.

Since the focus will be on the two quarterbacks in this one, Brady finished the 2014 campaign with 4,109 passing yards and 33 touchdown throws, while Luck racked up 4,761 passing yards and 40 touchdown throws. The Colts offense was tops in the league in passing yards and made a number of secondaries look silly.

Elise Amendola/Associated Press

The surrounding weapons will certainly play a factor in Sunday’s game.

Luck has T.Y. Hilton (1,345 receiving yards and seven touchdowns), Reggie Wayne (779 receiving yards and two touchdowns) and Coby Fleener (774 receiving yards and eight touchdowns), while Brady primarily relies on Rob Gronkowski (1,124 receiving yards and 12 touchdown catches) and Julian Edelman (972 receiving yards and four touchdown catches).

Don’t overlook the running games though, especially in a contest where the defenses will be focused on stopping the pass.

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Running backs were nonexistent for the Patriots in the divisional round against the Baltimore Ravens with a whopping 14 rushing yards, but the first matchup against the Colts is the game that Jonas Gray exploded for 201 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Gray was the primary reason why the Patriots won so easily even though Luck had a better statistical game than Brady.

Brady himself noted how important the run game can be in the aftermath of that victory, according to The Associated Press (via ESPN.com):

"

Whatever it takes. There's games that you go into and we're not sure how well we're going to run it. But when it's going well, you just want to keep giving it to them. We try to stay balanced. But if they're not going to respect the running game, then you have to keep giving it to them.

"

While the Colts' statistical output as the No. 22 rushing team in the league left much to be desired throughout the season, the emergence of Daniel “Boom” Herron has given Indianapolis a different dimension.

In two playoff wins, Herron has 119 rushing yards, 117 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Just the presence of a serviceable running back gives Luck more time to throw and the ability to use play action at times.

If Luck can get another impressive game from Herron, it would be an extra wrinkle that the Patriots did not have to prepare for in the regular season. Any advantage you can find in a postseason game in New England could be critical when trying to pull off an upset.

Defensively, the Colts were middle of the road this season and finished 18th against the run, 12th against the pass and 19th in scoring. The Patriots, on the other hand, were an impressive eighth in scoring and ninth against the run.

However, the New England secondary was only 17th against the pass and could be vulnerable to the dangerous Colts aerial attack.

Still, Luck put up big numbers on that secondary in the regular season at home and managed to lose by a wide margin, so it is difficult to get too excited about his chances in the postseason on the road. 

Another thing to consider when projecting this game is recent history. ESPN Stats & Info noted that things have not gone well for Luck against the Patriots:

Ultimately, the Patriots are at home and have the better defense (at least in terms of points allowed) going up against Luck. The past success for the Patriots when dealing with Luck also has to be considered, making it too difficult to pick against New England at home. 

Brady will be one victory away from another Super Bowl ring after Sunday’s game against Indianapolis.

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