San Diego Padres: Exciting Offseason Does Not Guarantee Contention

The San Diego Padres took the baseball world by surprise this offseason, as general manager A.J Preller was aggressive on the trade market in December.  In a flurry of moves with several different teams, the Padres upgraded at nearly every position and didn’t worry about the future or the financial repercussions.

They sent plenty of prospects away in exchange for big-name players.  Preller pulled the trigger to add Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Wil Myers, Derek Norris and Will Middlebrooks to a Padre lineup that ranked last in the MLB in nearly every offensive category, including batting average, runs scored, hits and OPS.

They are undoubtedly hampered a bit by their home field, the spacious, pitcher-friendly Petco Park, but to be at the bottom of all those categories is inexcusable.  That output (or lack thereof) was why Preller felt he must make drastic changes in his first season as general manager.

However, the sheer volume of moves does not guarantee that the Padres will be instant contenders in the National League West. 

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History is replete with examples of teams that added starpower with unimpressive results.  The Marlins are probably the most glaring recent example.  Before the 2012 season, they acquired the trio of Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell and hoped to win immediately, but the roster never jelled, and Reyes and Buehrle were eventually traded.

The Angels are another example.  After signing free agents Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton to massive contracts to give the Halos a scary heart of the order, they missed the playoffs in 2013.

Looking at the Padres,, there are questions about nearly every one of the team’s newest acquisitions.  Kemp has failed to live up to his MVP-caliber season in 2012, and although he had a stellar second half of the season, he hit .269 with only eight home runs before the All-Star break.  It was also revealed in his physical with San Diego that he has arthritis in both hips, which has to be at least a bit concerning.

Myers had a phenomenal Rookie of the Year season in 2013, but he followed it up with an injury-prone sophomore campaign.  Myers only played 87 games for the Rays last year due to a wrist injury he suffered in June, and he managed a measly .222 average with six homers.

Upton might be the most consistent of the three outfielders, which is saying something considering the former Brave has proven to be one of the streakiest hitters in the entire league.  For example, he hit .326 with eight dingers in April of last year.  He also had solid stats in May, July and August but hit .226 and .169 in June and September, respectively.  For the season, he hit .270 with 29 homers and 102 RBIs.

He likely won’t hit for a great average in the future, but he is a good bet to hit 25-30 round-trippers and plenty of RBI if his teammates get on base in front of him.

Norris, who was acquired in a trade with the Athletics, is a solid catcher, but he doesn’t have near the potential that Yasmani Grandal does, who was traded to the Dodgers in the Kemp deal. 

Middlebrooks makes everyone look like the model of consistency. 

The former Boston top prospect had a terrific rookie season back in 2012 when he hit 15 homers in only 75 games.  But he followed with two horrific years where he failed to crack .230.  While he did flash some decent pop in 2013, if he doesn’t improve his contact skills, he will struggle to stay on the field.

The Friars will also hope to get contributions from the likes of infielders Jedd Gyorko and Yangervis Solarte, but those two aren’t slam dunks.

Don’t forget about the ballpark.  Upton recently told ESPN that he does not fear the cavernous dimensions of Petco Park, which is a positive outlook for the Padres.

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“Everybody says it’s big,” he said.  “I don't think so. It usually plays pretty fair.  It’s one of those places where if you hit a home run, it’s going to be a home run.  I’ve enjoyed a bit of success here, and I enjoy playing here.”

He has fared well in San Diego throughout his career, but it has to be expected that the stadium will take away a few home runs from the new sluggers.  There isn’t a ballpark in America where if you hit a home run, it’s not going to be a home run, and it will be interesting to see if any of the new additions will see their power numbers decrease.

There's also the financial position that the Padres are in with the barrage of moves.  Matt Kemp will only add about $3 million to the club’s payroll for 2015 (due to cash received from the Dodgers), but in 2016-2019, the Padres will pay him $18.5 million each year.

Justin Upton is in the last year of his contract and will surely command a lucrative contract at season’s end.  San Diego has shown a propensity to be frugal in the past, so it is doubtful it will even re-sign Upton. 

If that is the case, the Padres are going all in to win this year.  Unfortunately for them, I don’t think they will even make the playoffs.  They finished 17 games out of first place in 2014, and despite the new additions, they don’t have enough talent to overtake the Dodgers or the Giants in the division.

The lineup should be considerably more potent in 2015, but there are still numerous questions regarding the pitching staff that have not yet been addressed.  The Padres will not be as embarrassing as the Marlins were, but don’t expect them to be this year’s version of the Royals.

On the other hand, if all the acquisitions return to their best form, the outcome could be drastically different.