Moore Hoops: College Basketball Teams More Dangerous Than Their Record Suggests

It's early January and you know what that means: The eventual national champion has just lost back-to-back games!

Well, that would be the case if our 2015 champ is following the blueprint of the Connecticut Huskies, who opened their inaugural season in the American last year with road losses to Houston (yuck!) and SMU.

This college basketball season has more of a hint of the inevitable. The elite—Kentucky and Duke, mainly—just seem too good to not be there on the game's final weekend. But like every season around this time of year, a handful of teams are better than their record and will eventually show as much in the conference season...or in the case of the Huskies a year ago, in the NCAA tournament.

These five stand out as teams that would be under-seeded if Selection Sunday was tomorrow.

Oklahoma (11-3)

Better jump on the Sooner Schooner quick after that depantsing of 10th-ranked Texas that took place on Big Monday.

Some may have been hesitant to believe in Oklahoma after losing its second game of the season to a McBuckets-less Creighton, but that was a game OU led by 18 and then just sort of fell asleep at the wheel.

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The Sooners were also trying to get acclimated at that time to playing with Houston transfer TaShawn Thomas. The NCAA notified OU that Thomas would be eligible the day before its first game, and the Sooners were likely operating as though it was no given he would get his waiver to play right away. There were rumblings at Big 12 media days that they weren't too hopeful they'd get a favorable ruling.

What no one saw coming is that Thomas has helped turn Oklahoma into a defensive juggernaut. That has certainly not been OU's identity the last few years. The Sooners have been a running-and-gunning squad much more occupied with the offensive end, but they are playing with noticeably more effort on the defensive end this season.

The gap between last year's defense and this year's is so wide (see chart) that you would think Thomas is some kind of mistake-erasing rim protector.

	Adj. Def. Eff.	Rank	2pt%	Rank
2013-14	100.6	91	48.8	177
2014-15	85.7	4	39.7	11

Thomas is OU's best shot-blocker, but a bona fide rim protector he is not. Instead, he's provided more beef inside to pair with Ryan Spangler, giving OU the size to match up with big front lines like Texas'.

The offense, which was the second best in Big 12 play last year, has been slower to come along. And that's what is scary about the Sooners. They're only going to get better on that end as they get used to having a big guy like Thomas that they can play through in the half court.

"They are a really good team," UT senior Jonathan Holmes told media on Monday night in Austin. "They are really good on offense, they are balanced. They can shoot, they can pound it inside and they can play defense. They are a championship-caliber team. They’re a good team."

The Longhorns were the team thought to be the Big 12 favorite, and we cannot really judge them again until point guard Isaiah Taylor, who missed more than a month with a wrist injury, has had time to get back to his normal self. But what happened Monday night was not just Oklahoma catching Texas on an off night.

The Sooners are the most well-rounded team in a stacked Big 12, and they pose a real threat to end KU's ridiculous streak of 10 straight conference titles.

North Carolina (11-4)

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I was on the radio in Charlotte this week and was asked if North Carolina has lost its mystique.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say if Marcus Paige makes a layup on the final possession against Notre Dame on Monday night, that question is not getting asked.

The Heels have actually been playing really well since mid-December, and there's no shame in losing to the 13th-ranked Irish. It took Roy Williams about 30 minutes of action to figure out that it was a bad idea to guard Pat Connaughton with his 4-man. Williams went small in the latter stages of that game, and the Heels nearly pulled off the comeback—they had been down 11.

Now, I get that saying "there's no shame in losing to Notre Dame" kind of speaks to the whole "lost mystique" point, but this team really does have potential to be, in the words of Ol' Roy, pretty dadgum good. I really like the Heels' potential next season, and I see this team as one that will make the second weekend of the tourney and would be a decent dark-horse pick to get to the Final Four.

Williams has a lot of lineup flexibility thanks to the size he has on the wing. He can play small ball or overwhelm some opponents with length. Paige has a lot more help scoring the ball this year, and he's yet to play at the level he's capable of playing. Sure, the Tar Heels have underachieved the first month of the season—losses to Butler and Iowa—but it's not shocking for a relatively young roster to go through some growing pains.

I like the Heels to win on Saturday against Louisville, and the schedule starts to soften up for them after that with four straight games against ACC opponents that aren't likely to make the NCAA tournament. By the end of January, the narrative could very well change to: Is UNC back? 

SMU (10-4)

The Mustangs opened the season ranked 22nd, so when they lost three of their first five games, they went straight in the "biggest early-season disappointments" pile. But I give SMU a pass for that early stretch.

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The team's best post player, Markus Kennedy, had to sit out the first semester because of academic issues. Kennedy is back now and hasn't exactly lit the world on fire—4.8 points per game on 36.4 percent shooting in four games—but he was a slow starter last year and ended up playing really well from March on. He averaged 14.4 points and 7.3 rebounds in March and April.

Missing Kennedy also turned out not to be such a bad thing because it allowed Yanick Moreira the opportunity to become a legit low-post scorer. Moreira looks like one of the most improved bigs in the country, averaging 12.1 points per game on 60.4 percent shooting.

Even after losing at Cincy in its second conference game, SMU should still be the favorite to win the American. The league's best teams (UConn, Cincy, Temple and SMU) can all really defend, and SMU has the highest upside of the bunch on the offensive end with a great outside scorer (Nic Moore) to pair with those two capable guys on the blocks. 

St. John's (11-4)

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Nine days ago the Johnnies were 11-1, ranked 14th and looked like a legitimate threat to Villanova in the Big East. Now they've lost three straight, the latest an 18-point setback to Nova at home. 

All of the teams on this list have kind of gotten a pass for early losses. The recent losses for the Johnnies are more on the inexcusable side—not that they lost those games, but how they lost. 

In Big East games thus far, St. John's has played the worst defense in the league, allowing 1.24 points per possession. With the kind of athletes Steve Lavin has and one of the best shot-blockers in the country, Chris Obekpa, protecting the rim, you have to think there's some effort issues there.

Second-leading scorer Rysheed Jordan did miss the Butler game because of a death in his family and he didn't look like himself against Villanova, but that still doesn't excuse the defense. 

The good news is we've seen St. John's play at a much higher level in the nonconference, and this slow start is St. John's being St. John's. Last year's team started Big East play 0-5 and ended up 10-8. You would have hoped this team had it together enough to not go in a big funk, but the key now is to not let it go on much longer. 

Putting themselves in an 0-3 hole is probably too big to overcome for a league title, but there's no reason the Johnnies shouldn't still be shooting for a second-place finish in the league. 

Connecticut (8-5)

The Huskies cannot match last year's team on the offensive end. Ryan Boatright is doing a good Shabazz Napier impression, but UConn's secondary scorer (Amida Brimah) isn't as good as last year's secondary scorer (DeAndre Daniels) and its third scorer (Daniel Hamilton) isn't as good as last year's third scorer (Boatright).

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Complex, I know. But it's really that simple. Kevin Ollie gives his best scorers a lot of freedom to go make plays, and Boatright just doesn't have the help Napier had. That's how you end up losing to Yale at home.

But here's the good news, UConn fans: This team actually has a higher ceiling on the defensive end.

Brimah has emerged from a decent rotation big man off the bench to one of the best centers in the country, and he seems to just keep getting better week to week. The Huskies also have more length on the perimeter and will win a fair share of games in the 50s.

So far their defensive numbers mirror last year's pretty closely, but as the young guys get more comfortable in Ollie's schemes, the Huskies will get more stingy on that end. 

The expectation should be to compete with SMU for the league title. The Huskies did lose the conference opener at home to Temple in overtime, but that was a game that they had to play the second half and OT without Boatright. Obviously, he must stay healthy for them to reach their ceiling. 

The Chalkboard

*Virginia remained undefeated on Saturday thanks to this game-tying three in overtime by Justin Anderson. 

This is a brilliant design by Tony Bennett, because not only does he get his best player a shot, he gets his best player an open look doing something he's comfortable doing—going to his left. The dribble handoff also serves as sort of a second screen—Angel Rodriguez even switches onto Anderson on the exchange—and this puts Rodriguez in a tough spot where he has no idea the screen set by Mike Tobey is coming. 

Kudos to the Cavaliers for running this play with such calm. That's what really was impressive about their win in Miami. When the game got tight, they just kept executing and didn't try to do too much.

*A few weeks ago North Carolina State graduate assistant Ben Asher put up video of the San Antonio Spurs' hammer flare series. The play is intended to free up a shooter for a corner three. 

Last Tuesday, Kent State ran one of those plays—the second one in Asher's video—to perfection against Kansas. Check it out here. Well, everything was perfect except the shot. 

Put the Kids to Bed or Set the DVR

All game times are in Eastern time.

*No. 5 Louisville at No. 18 North Carolina, Saturday (2 p.m. on ESPN): North Carolina could be a bad matchup for Louisville. Even though the Tar Heels aren't a great outside shooting team, they've been really good against zones because they're such a good passing team. UNC's defense is like a poor man's Kentucky and could give Louisville some issues. Like against UK for the Cards, it could come down to whether their guards can make outside shots. 

Prediction: North Carolina 69, Louisville 65

*No. 10 Texas at Oklahoma State, Saturday (5 p.m. on ESPNU): This is a scary game for the Longhorns. What makes Texas so good defensively is the ability to pretty much take away everything in the paint. Oklahoma State's Phil Forte is cool with that. He can run all day to get open and then drain jumpers once your defense relaxes. Forte and Le'Bryan Nash are really playing well, and the Cowboys are one of those Big 12 teams that's better than expected. Starting off 0-2 in the Big 12 might just eliminate any hope at UT's conference title chances, so the Horns need this one. 

Prediction: Texas 57, Oklahoma State 53

*No. 3 Virginia at No. 13 Notre Dame, Saturday (6 p.m. on ESPN2): If you haven't watched Notre Dame play yet, take this opportunity. The Irish are a great passing team that can spread the floor and make shots. Basically, they're like the exact opposite of almost every team in college basketball right now. The Cavaliers force opponents to shoot a lot of threes, and that's actually a bad approach against the Irish. If Virginia wins this, there's a decent shot we'll get to see Virginia and Duke both undefeated in their matchup on Jan. 31, but I like Notre Dame at home.

Prediction: Notre Dame 67, Virginia 65

No. 17 Iowa State at No. 14 West Virginia, Saturday (8 p.m. on ESPN2): This has the chance to be the best game of the weekend. The Mountaineers are feasting on turnovers, but they haven't played a point guard as good as Iowa State's Monte Morris. They also haven't faced a team all season as good as the Cyclones. This is a chance for the Mountaineers to show their hot start is legit.

Prediction: West Virginia 75, Iowa State 74

C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.