Fantasy Football Dilemma: Calvin Johnson vs. Ryan Grant

It’s virtually impossible to be completely satisfied with your team after a fantasy football draft. KFFL.com’s William Del Pilar taught me: You can always pinpoint the one round in which you made a choice that changed the dynamic of your team or your strategy—it’s that choice you want back.

I’ve reviewed so many drafts in my time as an analyst that I can often identify such a selection almost instantly. It’s not easy to view it as a good thing, especially when it occurs in the second round, like it did for me recently in the RotoExperts.com Free the Fan Mock Draft. The scoring rules were performance-based (non-PPR).

My fateful mistake: Calvin Johnson over Ryan Grant

Yes, that’s right, in the second round. I held the seventh spot, and this was the 18th overall pick. I want Grant there, not Johnson. Correct, despite the fact that Johnson was a relative value, per average draft position, and Grant would have qualified as a reach, according to ADP. Of course, even though most drool at the mention of Johnson. Certainly, regardless of your fear that Grant was a one-(half-)year wonder.

Calvin Johnson looks good on any fantasy football roster—except mine.

Fundamentally, I wanted one of the very few backs remaining who are legit featured types as my No. 2 back. They’re rare anymore. Only three receivers were off the board when I selected.

I preferred Grant more than the other viable options. My “smorgasbord” included Ronnie Brown, Pierre Thomas and Kevin Smith. I mistakenly thought, for an instant, based on his ADP, Grant might last to me in the third round. Nope.

Why I didn’t want Johnson:

• New no-nonsense head coach Jim Schwartz’s background is rooted in defense, and his past employers were run-first outfits.
• Detroit upgraded its defensive personnel. DC Gunther Cunningham is preparing them to kick butt. (And he’s nuts.)
• The offense is expected to be somewhat conservative, with reason to be optimistic about the offensive line and the ground game.
• Daunte Culpepper or rookie Matthew Stafford will be tossing Johnson the rock.
• Opponents know that Johnson and Smith might be the offense’s only legit weapons.

You’re probably saying (or writing in the comments box), Minnix, you’re a fool. This Johnson guy is sick! He rocks! He’ll overcome. He’ll tear up the league even more this year, and then he’ll sign my T-shirt with a Sharpie and rush into burning buildings to prevent us from mourning flame-broiled babies! You’ll see! Go Giants!

The spelling and grammar will be much worse, though.

I hear (or read) you. Just remember: It’s more difficult for a great player, even one of Johnson’s caliber, to succeed repeatedly in a limited offense. The Lions, being the Lions, put a ceiling on Johnson’s potential production.

I see reasons to be hopeful:

• Johnson is ridiculously gifted. (Didn’t we cover this already?)
• OC Scott Linehan is reunited (and it feels so good) with Culpepper. The two have a chance to rehash the ol’ throw-it-up-and-let-(Randy Moss)-Calvin Johnson-run-under-it routine they put on in Minnesota from 2002 to 2004.
• In the five games Culpepper started for Detroit, from Week 10 to Week 14, Johnson caught 19 passes for 373 yards and three touchdowns. Not bad.
• Culpepper is in excellent physical condition this year.
• Johnson oozes ability. (I get it.)

I know he did it last year. He could do it again this year. I’m just saying it’s less likely than it would be if he were a member of, say, the Colts. Or the Texans. Or the Eagles. Or even the freakin’ Jaguars.

Steve Smith didn’t put up great numbers in 2007, when the Carolina Panthers‘ quarterbacks were in shambles. Moss didn’t succeed with the awful Oakland Raiders—granted, for many reasons. Braylon Edwards didn’t repeat his magical 2007 as a member of the Cleveland Browns. Lee Evans, albeit a member of a lesser class, disappointed his post-2006 owners because the Buffalo Bills are a bottle cap on the refreshing Corona of production.

Johnson’s numbers should be good, but outstanding? More things have to go right when the offense isn’t powerful.

Overlooked: Ryan Grant

I fancied Grant. He’s healthy, he’s not squabbling about his contract, and the Green Bay Packers have a great offense. Grant doesn’t have to worry about anyone stealing touches. And, as you can tell, I don’t believe he was a flash in the pan. Neither does KFFL.com’s Ryan R. Bonini.

The result of such a dilemma can cause ripples. I went receiver in the third round because I saw none in the lot of RBs available as a surefire No. 2. I ended up with Thomas Jones (not thrilled, but solid value) in the fourth; I handcuffed Shonn Greene later.

Sometimes, these picks trigger a domino effect or alter the course of a draft. If you handle the transition in strategy or make the selection that covers your patootie, you’ll recover. (Yes, I just used the word “patootie”; yes, this is still about football.)

You always have to be open to other possibilities; that’s why I didn’t poo-poo Johnson. (Did I just say “poo-poo,” too?) I could see that the first couple of rounds were going to become RB-heavy, as they should be, especially in this format. I don’t believe taking a running back in the second round is a must, but it’s close.

Folks might have you believe that securing a top-five receiver is always the way to go. Look at the receivers still available in the third round in this one: Reggie Wayne, Anquan Boldin, Marques Colston (mine), Dwayne Bowe, Terrell Owens and Brandon Marshall.

This happens often, and if you target appropriately, you can end up with two great running backs and still own a very good No. 1 receiver. It’s safer than assuming you’ll hit on a mid-round running back. Draft position and flow will let you know which way to go, though. Be flexible.

Like William says in his most recent blog, it’s about learning from your mistakes. And admitting them to the public. That’s how others learn from you. Whether you agree or not, you’ve learned something.

Oh, by the way, Grant went two picks after I took Johnson.