Bold MMA Predictions for 2015: A Good Year for Punks, PEDs, Plaintiffs & Parity?

In a rare show of solidarity, the MMA community nearly unilaterally told 2014 not to let the door bump its behind on the way out. It had not been a good dozen months for the sport, and we were eager for change.

We'd hoped for better things from the new year, but so far it seems 2015 has displayed the same sickly pallor and funky odor of its predecessor. Already we've lost some high-profile fights to injury, and the one epic barnburner we did get was immediately overshadowed by a failed drug test.

So, it could be that this whole "new year" thing was just a trick with numbers. That bad news isn't just going to stop happening because we arbitrarily declare it a season of invigoration and renewal. Go figure.

In any case, we're still gonna make predictions. Bold ones. Here, Bleacher Report lead writers Chad Dundas (that's me) and Jonathan Snowden get together to give 2015 its horoscope a little bit early.

Prediction: Bellator Makes It a Fight

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Jonathan

At one point the UFC had the fighter roster and promotional firepower to blow any potential challenger out of the water. With most of the world's top cage fighters under contract in the UFC, mounting a competing show and simply outclassing its rivals was as easy as breathing.

Today, in large part due to its own enormous success, the UFC has actually outgrown its ability to wow the audience. There are simply too many shows to stock—45 and counting are scheduled for 2015 alone. It's an enormous and ambitious expansion plan—one designed to help the UFC conquer the entire world, not just the North American market.

An interesting second-order effect of this growth is the corresponding opportunity in the UFC's once-safe home base for a competitor to step in. The UFC no longer has the luxury of putting on shows stocked top to bottom with the world's best.

In 2009, it was impossible for another promoter to build an event that approached the splendor of even a marginal UFC card. Today? With much of each fight card filled with fighters no one has ever heard of, it's much easier to match what the UFC offers. Especially, as is the case with Scott Coker's Bellator, when you only have to match it once per month.

Coker understands how to create an appealing fight card. He and matchmaker Rich Chou will find the right mix of veterans and promising newcomers to ensure each card has the kind of exciting bouts that made us all fall in love with MMA in the first place. He'll challenge UFC in 2015—and the winner, no matter what happens, will be the fans.

Chad

Huzzah! I like a lot of what Bellator is doing right now. As the UFC schedule balloons, Bellator smartly contracts, ditching its tired tournament format and abandoning the misguided effort of weekly events on Spike. So long as it reminds us when its new monthly fight cards air, the pared-down menu should work well with Bellator’s smaller but still fairly compelling roster.

We made a lot of fun of the organization for taking on UFC castoffs like Tito Ortiz, Stephan Bonnar, Rampage Jackson and Cheick Kongo. Nobody was laughing when the ratings for Ortiz’s Nov. 2014 fight against Bonnar rolled in, though, were they? With that little touch of nostalgia, some established studs (Will Brooks, Michael Chandler, Emanuel Newton, Pitbull Bros., etc.) and emerging talent (Michael Page, Liam McGeary, Bubba Jenkins), 2015 could be a big year for Bellator.

Honestly, though, I think it needs one or two more big-name free-agent signings to really spark interest. Fedor? Brock? Del Rio? One of those guys plus one big-name UFC vet who unexpectedly crosses the aisle and we might just have a horse race on our hands.

Prediction: Injuries Derail CM Punk’s 2015 UFC Debut.

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Chad

CM Punk was back in the MMA news this week as he showed up at the Roufusport gym in Milwaukee, ostensibly to begin training for a 2015 UFC debut against an as-yet unknown opponent.

OK, "back in the news" is probably the wrong expression, since Punk hasn’t stopped being a major topic of conversation in fight circles since the UFC announced his signing back in early Dec. 2014. We’ve dissected his credentials, his motives and his prospective role with the company from all angles, and we probably won’t stop until he finally makes his Octagon debut.

Oh, yeah. About that. Something tells me it’s going to be a while.

We’ve already seen the estimates for Punk’s first fight pushed back from mid-2015-ish to end-of-the-year-ish. Every time I start trying to imagine it, I have to ask myself: Will a 36-year-old former pro wrestler who copped to undergoing multiple concussions as well as knee surgery, elbow surgery and a staph infection during a recent appearance on wrestler Colt Cabana's podcast really withstand the rigors of an MMA fight camp?

I’m guessing no. Despite all the hoopla, I predict some physical malady—knee, shoulder, ankle, something—prevents Punk from showing up in the cage until 2016...if he does at all.

Jonathan

After one article, one podcast and approximately 7,000 tweets, my position on CM Punk is well-known. I'm an enormous admirer of Punk's professional wrestling. He was a standout performer in the WWE, and I wish him great success moving forward with his life.

But, as Chad explained, I worry about his future if it includes cage fighting. This is a man whose body has already broken down. He's given all he has already. That's a bad place to be, physically, when you're considering a career that involves copious face punching.

Even more than that, UFC's immediate media blitz gives mainstream fans the impression that just about anybody can compete successfully in this sport. It diminishes the very real skills and sacrifices of hundreds of fighters who worked hard to earn their spots on the world stage.

Sports Illustrated's Richard Deitsch is a solid example of how Punk's elevation can skew media perception. Because a wrestler with no athletic pedigree can apparently do it, it appears Deitsch thinks almost anyone can. In an interview with Chad Dukes, the scribe made clear how easy he thinks MMA competition is.

"In my opinion he also happens to be, I think, a pretty good athlete," Deitsch said. "Do I think he’s gonna be the champ? No, I don’t think so. You give that guy a couple months to train, I don’t see why he can’t be a moderate UFC fighter."

That's the legacy of CM Punk—the idea that anyone who's a "pretty good" athlete could compete as a mid-level professional fighter in just a few months. I can't imagine many things worse when it comes to shifting mainstream perspectives that this is a real sport.

Prediction: Drugs Continue to Play a Major Role in MMA Competition

John Locher/Associated Press

Jonathan

On Jan. 2, UFC President Dana White announced that the company was dropping its out-of-competition drug testing. Citing procedural screw-ups in the case of fighter Cung Le, White told the press it would be easier to let athletic commissions do the work of regulating the sport.

It was a surprising reversal of course after CEO Lorenzo Fertitta pledged his support to an even playing field just three months earlier on UFC Tonight.

“The next step for us and what we’re working on, is a complete project where we will random test all 500 of our athletes multiple times per year,” Fertitta said. “We’re working on that. It’s gonna be a comprehensive plan. At the end of the day, if you’re cheating, we will catch you. You will get suspended, possibly fined. We take it very serious because at the end of the day, our fans want to make sure our sport’s clean, and I think the athletes want the sport clean.”

Four days after White's announcement, perhaps not coincidentally, news broke that UFC kingpin Jon Jones had tested positive for cocaine metabolites—during an out-of-competition test conducted by Nevada.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to connect the dots. Cancelling an event because a star fighter tests positive for drugs is enormously expensive. Integrity, unfortunately, doesn't pay the bills.

The UFC knew about the Jones test failure before it canceled its own program. While Nevada may test occasionally out of competition, most commissions do not. Combined with an increasing number of fights taking place outside the strict regulation common in the United States, you have all the ingredients for a sport that's dirtier than ever.

2015 will be the year of PEDs. And that, Chad, is a real shame.

Chad

That is a shame, considering the B/R MMA staff just anointed 2014 the year of PEDs, too. You’re right, though—the UFC's apparently abandoning plans to step up internal testing efforts is a kick in the shins to all of us who desire clean and well-regulated competition.

If nothing else, this Jones debacle has conclusively proved that not even the best-funded, most influential state athletic commission in the nation is up to the challenge of proper testing. We need someone with more resources and more clout to spur change, and—as imperfect as it seems—right now the only entity in the sports that fits the bill is the UFC.

As I said at the time of the initial announcement, however, the UFC can’t run the program itself. It needs to partner with a respected, independent third-party agency to handle the nuts and bolts of the testing. Only when that happens can we be sure that MMA is doing everything it can to police PED use. Without a workable solution, the rest is just window dressing.

Prediction: UFC Settles Class-Action Lawsuit Quicker Than Expected.

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Chad

We’ve already been told to expect a long, contentious battle in the class action lawsuits brought against the UFC by several current and former fighters. ESPN legal analyst Lester Munson told ESPN.com's Brett Okamoto recently that the initial motion-to-dismiss process alone could take up the first half of 2015. Beyond that, we’ve been warned that years will likely pass before any substantive resolution is reached.

I, however, beg to differ. One interesting twist on this process mentioned both by Munson and by Sports Illustrated’s Michael McCann is that if the lawsuit survives that first hurdle, a judge could compel the UFC to turn over some or all of its financial information.

And that, my friends, could be the Holy Grail in our ongoing, yearslong debate over fighter pay. It also strikes me as something the UFC really, really doesn’t want to happen.

So, if the lawsuit drags past the initial motion to dismiss and the books seem like they’re about to open to the whole world, I’m betting the company does whatever is necessary to prevent it. Even if that means swallowing some pride and giving up a chunk of change to settle with the plaintiffs.

But you know more about this stuff than I do, Jon. Am I off the rails?

Jonathan

While I think it would be smart for the UFC to settle this case quickly and quietly, I'm not sure it makes sense for the fighters involved. And, as more fighters file their own actions, it gets harder and harder to just make this go away.

Some of the principals involved, like attorney Rob Maysey, are true believers. I don't think they are in it for a quick payday. While this may sound strange in this cynical world, I think many people involved in this suit are after real institutional change and a better tomorrow for future fighters.

With that in mind, we'll still be talking about this in 2016. It's going nowhere fast.