NFL Divisional Picks & Predictions: The Ultimate Bettor's Guide

Nick KostosJan 9, 2015

When gambling on the NFL, it's always important to assign a confidence level to your picks and wager accordingly. The danger is falling prey to betting on every game (because it's so much damn fun, obviously), and putting yourself at risk of losing your hard-earned money on a contest (or contests) that you don't feel that great about.

Last week, I only truly recommended one play: the Lions at +6.5 over the Cowboys, and it hit.

I give you that to give you this: This week, I'm only going to recommend two plays (you'll have to read to find out, naturally). I just don't have that great of a feel for the other two, and as my fellow #TeamDegenerate members know, I'm always honest, and I won't recommend games that I myself don't feel compelled to take.

I truly believe this is the toughest NFL playoff weekend to predict in quite some time. While I like two games enough to wager my hard-earned money on them, my confidence level in each doesn't match what I felt about the Lions last week. There just isn't that stone-cold lock that normally presents itself on the schedule.

So in that vein, let's make a promise to ourselves to bet wisely this weekend. Don't wager on a game that you don't feel confident in. There are only seven NFL games left in the 2014 season, and you want to make sure you turn that profit.

Let's do it, peeps.

It's time to make that money, yo.

Playoffs ATS: 1-3

Regular Season ATS: 140-112-5

Regular Season Best Bets ATS: 44-41

Baltimore at New England

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Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

The Line: Baltimore at New England (-7)

Before the 2012 NFL playoffs kicked off, I felt something. And no, it wasn't the kind of feeling you get that causes you to book an appointment at the doctor's office, but thank you for asking.

I just had a feeling that the Baltimore Ravens were going to go on a major run. I wagered on them in every postseason game, and it wasn't necessarily because of their dominant defense—it was because of my affinity for their quarterback, Joe Flacco. I was absolutely and unequivocally #WackoForFlacco.

Now, I'm starting to get that ol' feeling back. When I watched the Ravens dismantle the Steelers last Saturday—and by the way, I'm totally devastated that I didn't pick the Ravens in that game and regretted it the instant the game kicked off— I started to believe again.

Yes, it's true that Baltimore's opponent on Saturday, the New England Patriots, has to be considered the prohibitive favorite to come out of the AFC. But I don't care. I love the Ravens to cover the spread, and I wouldn't be shocked in the slightest if they won the damn game outright.

Flacco and the Ravens have already defeated the Patriots twice in Foxborough during the postseason (2009 and 2012) and should have beaten them in 2011 as well. John Harbaugh's team clearly isn't scared of the Patriots, and that definitely counts for something.

Baltimore has the pass-rushers to harass Tom Brady and get him off his game, and even with New England possessing two stud cornerbacks in Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, I have confidence in Flacco's ability to move the football and put points on the board.

Last week, I wrote about how it's important to avoid the narrative. But as it concerns this particular game, I'm swimming in the narrative pool. I'm eating the narrative for breakfast, lunch and dinner. And I'm totally okay with it—because I invented the Ravens narrative two years ago.

The Ravens getting seven points is my best bet of the week, homie.

The Pick: Baltimore (+7)

Carolina at Seattle

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Chuck Burton/Associated Press

The Line: Carolina at Seattle (-10.5)

The great Greek philosopher Socrates once famously opined that "The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing," which is extremely applicable to the subject of wagering on sports.

Look, we (I'm including myself here, as I can be a particularly thick-headed dolt at times) all think that we're geniuses and can forecast the winner of every game, but if that were the case, there wouldn't be so many damn casinos in Las Vegas.

When the spreads for this week came out, I immediately circled Seattle -11.5. I felt like it was a lock. After all, the Panthers were a middling team throughout the entire regular season, and if they had faced even a bad quarterback last week (Ryan Lindley could be the worst quarterback in the history of human civilization), they would have lost.

But then I watched the line move down to Seattle -10.5, despite most of the public money being wagered on the Seahawks. And that got me thinking.

I recalled that quote from the homie Socrates and reminded myself that I know nothing. And I was able to free my mind from the initial inclination to pound Seattle with the points.

Truth be told, I'm not sure what the hell will happen on Saturday. Would I be stunned if the Panthers kept it close? No. Would I be shocked if the Seahawks won by 17? No.

But the numbers dictate that Carolina is the right play, and hell, every moron I've talked to this week has loved Seattle to win and cover, and you know what that means.

I can't (I won't!) take the Panthers to win the game, but I will take them to fall inside the number. Cam Newton will make enough plays in the passing attack, and Carolina's defense will do just enough to keep the game within reach.

Let's do the damn thang, Socrates. Don't let me down.

The Pick: Carolina (+10.5)

Dallas at Green Bay

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Richard Lipski/Associated Press

The Line: Dallas at Green Bay (-6)

If you're a real NFL fan, the prospect of the Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers meeting at Lambeau Field in the postseason should excite you beyond belief.

And if you're a real NFL gambler, the prospect of wagering on a Cowboys/Packers postseason game at Lambeau should excite you beyond belief.

(It might surprise you to hear that I'm excited beyond belief, but perhaps not.)

I actually think this game isn't terribly difficult to predict with the spread. Six points is just way too many, as I don't think there's that steep of a divide between the two teams.

While Green Bay and its star quarterback Aaron Rodgers went 8-0 at Lambeau this year (scoring nearly 40 points per game in the process), Dallas and its star quarterback Tony Romo went 8-0 on the road this year (scoring nearly 35 points per game in the process). It's an instance of the irresistible force meeting the immovable object, and I doubt the result will be lopsided in either team's favor.

And when you factor in the calf injury currently hobbling Rodgers, the confidence level in Dallas needs to rise.

There's little doubt the Packers will put points on the board. Even with Rodgers at less than 100 percent, Green Bay's offense is explosive and is significantly more talented than Dallas' defense. But I'm also confident that the Cowboys offense will find a ton of success against Green Bay's defense—especially running back DeMarco Murray and receiver Dez Bryant.

Plus, it's worth noting that while the majority of the public money has been wagered on Green Bay, the line is moving towards Dallas. And you know what that means.

I'm going to play the Cowboys with confidence, and you should, too.

And I'm excited beyond belief to do so.

The Pick: Dallas (+6)

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Indianapolis at Denver

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Michael Conroy/Associated Press

The Line: Indianapolis at Denver (-7)

When the line for this game first posted (Denver -7), I immediately thought the Broncos would cover and cover easily.

In theory, Peyton Manning and the Denver offense should absolutely slice and dice the Indianapolis defense. The Broncos are a significantly better team than the Colts from 1-53, and they're playing at home. It should be a no-brainer pick for Denver.

But this is the thing: While the Broncos are the better overall team, the Colts have the advantage at the game's most important position: quarterback.

That's right. I said it. I believe the Colts—with third-year superstar Andrew Luck—have the advantage at quarterback over future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning and the Broncos.

While that might sound like blasphemy, consider the facts: Manning struggled mightily down the stretch of the season, tossing only three touchdown passes against six interceptions in the season's final four games. His arm strength dipped noticeably, and the Broncos transitioned into a run-first team with back C.J. Anderson.

I'm just saying: Couldn't you see a scenario unfolding where the Broncos offense starts sluggish and Manning looks a bit off? And if that happens, you just know the Denver crowd will get nervous, and then the team will be ripe for the picking.

I believe in the greatness of Andrew Luck, and I have zero doubt that he is going to play a magnificent game. Why? Because that's what Andrew Luck does.

Am I going to pick the Colts to win the game? No, I'm not. I believe the talent chasm between the teams is so large that not even Luck can make up for it. Would I be shocked if the Colts won? No. But I believe it's unlikely.

But I think we'll see a result similar to Week 1, where Luck led the Colts on a stirring comeback that fell just short—but managed to fall inside the number and cover the spread.

I'm just saying: You might really like Denver to cover, but imagine how nervous you'll be when the Broncos are up 10 with 1:30 on the clock and Luck is firing darts all over the field. I want absolutely no part of that.

My confidence level in this pick isn't great, and I can't recommend my play, but I'll take the Colts with the points.

The Pick: Indianapolis (+7)