Boxers Most Likely to Experience a Decline in 2015
Decline is inevitable in all human endeavors. Nowhere can this be seen more cruelly and quickly than in the fight game. Great champions like Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez provide epic fights for the ages. And then they continue to simply age.
Most of the names on this list will remain relevant and dangerous fighters at the end of 2015. But I wouldn't be surprised to see any of them take a significant drop in standing.
They have been some of the biggest stars of the past decade. But in sports, the new stars are always on their way to center stage.
10. Bermane Stiverne
1 of 10
I expect Bermane Stiverne to win when he defends his WBC heavyweight title against Deontay Wilder later this month. But Wilder is legitimately a very dangerous puncher.
So because he is facing a heavyweight with monster power in the year's first month, Stiverne has to be viewed as one of the boxers most likely to decline in 2015.
If Stiverne wins that fight, his stock will take a temporary spike. But a unification bout with Wladimir Klitschko would be the next rightful step after beating Wilder. And Stiverne would be hard-pressed to win that fight.
If Stiverne avoids a unification bout with Klitschko, and instead defends against second-tier challengers, that, too, will push him into a decline with the fans.
9. Miguel Cotto
2 of 10
Beating Sergio Martinez by TKO for the lineal middleweight title last June put Miguel Cotto in the driver's seat for some of the sport's biggest fights. It was a historic comeback for a fighter who was already guaranteed enshrinement in the Hall of Fame.
But Martinez was a significantly diminished fighter. He was 39, coming off multiple surgeries in recent years. As a fighter who has always relied on superior athleticism, Martinez was ripe for the taking.
Cotto fought a smart, hard-nosed fight and deserves credit for his achievement. But just because he's training with Freddie Roach now doesn't mean I'm going to forget about the version of Cotto who struggled badly against Austin Trout in December 2012.
Cotto is on top of the 160-pound division, but I would not like his chances against WBA champion Gennady Golovkin. I think he'd struggle with Peter Quillin's size and athleticism.
The two fights Cotto is most likely to make this spring are against Saul Alvarez or Floyd Mayweather, who already beat him. I would pick against Cotto in either of those fights, though I wouldn't bet much money on him to lose against Canelo.
If Cotto does manage to beat Alvarez and retain the WBC and lineal titles, the fans will want him to step up and face Golovkin.
8. Robert Guerrero
3 of 10
After losing by a near shutout to Floyd Mayweather in May 2013, Robert Guerrero stayed inactive for over a year. Last June, he returned to action against Yoshihiro Kamegai of Japan.
Guerrero prevailed in a battle that ended up on most short lists for Fight of the Year. Once again, "The Ghost" demonstrated that he is a hard-nosed fighter with a ton of heart.
But wars like that that can take a toll on a fighter's body, and Guerrero has been in his share of them. He's just 31, but he's been fighting at the championship level for a long time now.
I wouldn't like Guerrero's chances against many of the young lions at welterweight, and that's the sort of opponent he'll need to face next, to get back into the title picture. His 2012 victories, Andre Berto and Selcuk Aydin, were credible but hardly standout resume lines.
Guerrero was at his best 135. He still carries decent power at 147, and he remains durable there. But I expect to see him fall out of the welterweight top 10 in 2015.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
7. Manny Pacquiao
4 of 10
Manny Pacquiao has a loyal and enthusiastic following. When the Filipino great knocked down challenger Chris Algieri six times in Macau last November, Pacquaio's diehards instantly pointed to it as a sign that the champ's famously explosive power had returned.
That's wishful thinking. Pacquiao's performance against Algieri did only one thing: It demonstrated that Algieri had been a woefully inexperienced opponent for Pacquiao from the beginning.
Only one of Pacquiao's knockdowns came as a result of Pacquiao lining up a big punch and blasting Algieri backward. The others were the result of Pacquiao's quick footwork completely confusing Algieri and putting the challenger in bad, poorly balanced positions. Indeed, the first knockdown should have been ruled a slip.
I doubt Pacquiao will lose next year. He's still better than most of the fighters out there and extremely unlikely to get matched against anybody who can beat him.
But another fight against a clearly unqualified opponent like Algieri will do nothing but send the superstar's stock down. If the opponent is somebody like Jessie Vargas and he manages to make Pacquiao struggle at all, it will be read as a clear sign of decline.
6. Deontay Wilder
5 of 10
If Deontay Wilder proves me wrong here and emerges from 2015 as the hottest star in the sport, I will eat my hat with pleasure. Boxing has needed a true American star at heavyweight for going on 20 years.
But my prediction is that Wilder will take his first loss against the rugged and explosive Bermane Stiverne, when they face off for Stiverne's WBC belt later this month. Even if Wilder captures the belt, I think he will drop it before the end of the year to Wladimir Klitschko.
Wilder's power is 100 percent for real, so there is the potential for him to emerge from both of those fights with two more KOs on his record. If that happens, he'll be viewed as the return of Mike Tyson.
But I'm more inclined to believe Wilder's thin torso and legs will fail to hold up against a true heavyweight power puncher.
5. Timothy Bradley
6 of 10
I thought Timothy Bradley got robbed in his draw to Diego Chaves last month. But the fact that the crude Argentine brawler was even able to make the fight close enough to debate over indicates to me that Desert Storm is slipping.
Bradley also looked surprisingly fatigued against Manny Pacquiao in their April rematch. Bradley is a fighter who has long been known for his intense conditioning. Nobody would have expected it to be a factor against Pacquiao.
Bradley survived an epic war against Ruslan Provodnikov in March 2013. Although he won, Bradley took about as much punishment as I've seen a fighter take in recent years. The damage from that kind of encounter can be permanent.
Bradley has never had the sort of dangerous power that can provide a quick out. He's always had to rely on dragging his opponents into grinding, physically uncomfortable contests.
If he's deteriorated too much physically to force that kind of a fight, his drop-off could be steep in 2015.
4. Juan Manuel Marquez
7 of 10
Juan Manuel Marquez has been one of my favorite fighters to watch during this century. And if he can secure a fifth fight with Manny Pacquiao for this year, he will have an outstanding chance to take Pacquiao's WBO welterweight belt and become the first five-division champion in Mexican history.
But it is doubtful that the fight will happen. I am inclined to believe that Marquez may in fact end up inactive for the year. And when an athlete over 40 passes another year without competing, decline has to be inferred.
Even a stay-busy fight against another game B-lister like Mike Alvarado is not without risks. Marquez won a one-sided victory over Alvarado last year, but it's not as if the Mexican legend escaped without damage.
World-class-level rounds don't come cheap for the body of an over-40 athlete. And as a welterweight, Marquez now competes 20 pounds above featherweight, where he was arguably at his greatest.
3. Adonis Stevenson
8 of 10
WBC and lineal light heavyweight champion Adonis Stevenson is one of the most athletic fighters and explosive punchers in the sport. While I don't think those gifts are ready to leave him just yet, at 37, I also don't think they would be enough for him to prevail in a unification fight with Sergey Kovalev this year.
But Stevenson has to fight Kovalev if he wants to continue being taken seriously as a champion this year. If 2015 comes and goes without that fight taking place, people will say that Stevenson ducked the Russian.
Stevenson probably can beat everybody in the world at 175 besides Kovalev. But that doesn't matter at this point, because there really isn't anybody credible left for him to fight but Kovalev.
Stevenson's options in 2015 are to fight Kovalev, and probably lose, or to avoid Kovalev and lose face with the fans.
2. Cornelius Bundrage
9 of 10
Cornelius Bundrage recapturing the IBF light middleweight title from Carlos Molina was one of the year's more inspiring boxing stories. It's always nice to see a fighter in the over-40 set win another belt.
K-9 is in tremendous shape for a fighter of his age. But the 154-pound division is stuffed with hungry, talented young fighters. I wouldn't like Bundrage's chances against either Jermell or Jermall Charlo, or in a unification bout with WBO champion Demetrius Andrade.
Bundrage's best chance to escape 2015 with his title is to continue making the IBF strap irrelevant, by defending it against a veteran, second-tier opponent like Ishe Smith or Molina.
1. Jhonny Gonzalez
10 of 10
Jhonny Gonzalez has always been an exciting, knockout puncher. But by 2013, the longtime veteran looked to be on the downside of his career. His August 2013 challenge against WBC featherweight champion Abner Mares looked like a last hurrah.
Instead, Gonzalez stunned Mares by Round 1 KO. Suddenly, the old warrior was a champion again.
He's hardly defended the belt like a champion, though. In two defenses, he's faced woefully inexperienced Clive Atwell and Jorge Arce, a shot fighter who was at his best at flyweight.
Gonzalez's power is still a threat to anybody he gets into the ring with. But with the featherweight division overrun at the moment by talented, hungry young talents, I have a hard time seeing Gonzalez escaping the year with his belt.
If he does, it will only be because he's defended against lesser opponents, rendering the WBC belt irrelevant.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
