UFC Fight Night 59 Preliminary Card Predictions
The UFC returns this weekend on Fox Sports 1, as UFC Fight Night 59 rolls into Boston. Headlined by one of the hottest fighters in the world, the card is deep with talent and should pull in some solid TV numbers.
Conor McGregor takes on fellow European Dennis Siver in the main event in a bout that could vault McGregor into a title shot. He is easily the hottest thing in MMA right now, due to his vocal prowess and violence in the cage.
It was a cold start to 2015 for me, as UFC 182 saw me pull a meager .500 record. We look to jump back into 2014 form in Boston, where I have eight chances to keep things above .500 going forward.
Without further ado, here are the preliminary card predictions for UFC Fight Night 59.
2015 Riley's Record: 3-3
Last Event: UFC 182 (3-3)
Joby Sanchez vs. Tateki Matsuda
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Kicking things off are the flyweights, as The Ultimate Fighter veteran Tateki Matsuda looks to make a successful drop to 125 pounds when he takes on promising prospect Joby Sanchez.
Sanchez is an up-and-coming prospect who is just 23 years old but looks to be a future star of the flyweight division. A grappler, he has shown improvements in his stand-up recently, even though his best work comes on the mat where he earns submission and ground-and-pound stoppages.
His UFC debut came on short notice against Wilson Reis in a losing effort, although he looked good given the circumstances. That was the first loss on his record, as he was 6-0 previous to that with wins over UFC veteran Antonio Banuelos and Eric Moell.
As for Matsuda, he is a familiar face for the fact that he was cast on the 14th season of The Ultimate Fighter. However, he lost a razor-close decision in the elimination round, which was why he did not make it into the house.
Matsuda is a tough striker who is always moving forward. He dropped his UFC debut on short notice to Chris Beal but won some followers in the process given he made it a close fight as a heavy underdog.
This fight is going to come down to who can push his game plan more effectively, and the 23-year-old New Mexico native will do that. Matsuda will put up a fight, but Sanchez is simply too good.
Prediction: Sanchez def. Matsuda via decision
Matt Van Buren vs. Sean O'Connell
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Capping off the Fight Pass prelims are the light heavyweights, as TUF 19 runner-up Matt van Buren searches for his first UFC victory against Sean O'Connell.
O'Connell is a knockout specialist who is known for his toughness and willingness to constantly move forward. Most of his wins come by stoppage, with a large part of that coming via strikes.
That said, his striking defense isn't the sharpest, as he tends to brawl. That was the downfall in his UFC debut against Ryan Jimmo, who flattened him with a massive KO. However, in a losing effort to Gian Villante in his last outing, O'Connell looked much better when he had a full training camp.
As for van Buren, the TUF 19 vet returns for the first time since his quick knockout loss to Corey Anderson in the finals of that tournament. It was a tough loss for van Buren, but the well-rounded Alliance MMA member looks to bounce back here.
Gutter is in desperate need of a win, though, as he is 1-3 in his last four. That includes Bellator losses to Mike Mucitelli and Terry Davinney, the latter of whom owns a subpar record and finished van Buren in just 15 seconds.
This is going to be a good, old-fashioned brawl. Both men stand in the pocket and throw heat while using their head to block punches. In a rock-'em, sock-'em robots affair, O'Connell edges out Gutter on the scorecards.
Prediction: O'Connell def. van Buren via decision
Charles Rosa vs. Sean Soriano
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Kicking off the Fox Sports prelims are the featherweights, as Charles Rosa gets a full training camp this time around when he meets Sean Soriano.
Rosa is an American Top Team rep with good wrestling and a solid submission skill set. He has tight chokes and a good armbar, as seen in his time in the regionals where six of his nine wins came via tapout.
His UFC debut came on short notice against headliner Dennis Siver. In a valiant effort that surprised many, Rosa brought the fight to Siver and made things close, despite dropping a decision when it was all said and done.
Soriano is a Blackzilians team member who is looking for his first win in three tries with the UFC. He lost a short-notice bout to Tatsuya Kawajiri, before getting thoroughly dominated by Chas Skelly in his sophomore effort.
Soriano is a good striker who has shown some holes in his ground game. His fight IQ also doesn't seem to be the highest, as evidenced in his on-the-fly actions during the Skelly fight where he didn't make correct adjustments.
Rosa's wrestling and ground game are what's going to make or break this fight. Soriano has decent takedown defense, but Rosa is relentless and will dominate him when it comes time to fight on the mat.
Prediction: Rosa def. Soriano via submission
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Johnny Case vs. Frankie Perez
4 of 8The lightweights are due to the cage next, as Alliance MMA member Johnny Case looks to continue his success in his sophomore effort when he takes on WSOF veteran Frankie Perez. Perez steps up on short notice after Paul Felder and Frank Trevino both withdrew from the bout.
Case is a striker who represents the Alliance MMA camp and is a veteran of the unofficial UFC feeder promotion, RFA. He is riding a nine-fight winning streak where he finished seven opponents in that time, showing the power in his striking and his killer instinct.
His UFC debut was impressive, as he took a bout in Japan against the gritty Kazuki Tokudome. He clipped the Japanese fighter with a punch early and jumped on a nasty guillotine choke, putting Tokudome to sleep before he could surrender.
Perez is a top lightweight prospect coming into the UFC who is a veteran of World Series of Fighting and the underrated Ring of Combat promotion in the East. He is a Ricardo Almeida disciple with a great ground game, takedowns, clinch work and submissions.
His only career loss came in WSOF to another top lightweight prospect who is currently in the UFC by the name of Chris Wade. Other than that, Perez has been a submission machine, tapping out five opponents in nine victories by way of rear-naked, guillotine and arm-triangle choke.
This is a good matchup, and snagging Perez for the lightweight ranks was a wise move by the UFC. However, Case's upside is better at this point, especially since he trains at Alliance MMA. He takes an exciting, competitive decision.
Prediction: Case def. Perez via decision
Patrick Holohan vs. Shane Howell
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Moving forward, we head to the flyweight division, as Irish fighter Patrick Holohan looks to jump back into the win column against experienced veteran Shane Howell.
Holohan is a TUF 14 veteran who failed to make the show but ended up on the UFC roster regardless. He is a striker with a good submission base, which makes him a solid all-around threat in a thin UFC flyweight division.
His UFC debut saw him shock heavily favored Josh Sampo, whom he dropped and choked out in the first round. However, that progress ended in his latest bout, as late replacement Canadian fighter Chris Kelades decisioned him.
He takes on Howell, a 20-plus fight veteran from Oklahoma with good wrestling and an underrated submission game. His striking is his big weakness, as is fighting off his back when an opponent gets him down.
Howell, despite not fighting since 2012, signed with the UFC on late notice in his last fight to take on super-prospect Ray Borg. Unfortunately for Howell, Borg quickly overwhelmed him and put him to sleep with a submission in the first round.
Howell needs a win here, or it could spell the end of his UFC run. However, his disadvantage on the feet, coupled with Holohan's quickness and distance striking that will make setting up takedowns tough for Howell, will lead to a win for the Irishman.
Prediction: Holohan def. Howell via decision
Chris Wade vs. Lipeng Zhang
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Next up are the lightweights, as TUF China winner Lipeng Zhang looks to stay perfect in the Octagon when he takes on stud prospect Chris Wade.
Zhang, the winner of the only season of TUF China thus far, owns a 9-7-1 record in his career but has shown improvements in his game since being on the show. He is a striker with a solid top game, though he is a turtle on his back when put to the mat.
His UFC debut saw him edge Wang Sai on the scorecards despite the fact many believed Sai won that bout. However, in his sophomore effort, he won a convincing decision over Brendan O'Reilly, silencing critics for the time being.
As for Wade, the WSOF veteran is a wrestler with a suffocating top game that has frustrated many foes. He is a physical brute and strong as an ox, which allows him to overpower opponents when he grabs their body or a leg.
His UFC debut was impressive, as he took fellow lightweight prospect Cain Carrizosa and made him into mincemeat. He slapped on a vicious guillotine choke and squeezed until Carrizosa was dreaming.
Wade's superior wrestling acumen will expose an overmatched Zhang in this fight. It won't be pretty or easy for Zhang, but it will be pretty easy for the New York native.
Prediction: Wade def. Zhang via submission
John Howard vs. Lorenz Larkin
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A pair of welterweight bangers do battle next, as Lorenz Larkin drops from middleweight to take on John Howard.
Howard is a muay thai striker with good power and a solid clinch game. He has also been known to incorporate wrestling when he knows he has the advantage there, showing he game-plans well and has a solid fight IQ.
He is likely fighting for his job here, as he is 2-2 since returning to the UFC after dropping his most recent two bouts. He re-entered the UFC with wins over Uriah Hall and Siyar Bahadurzada but took setbacks to Ryan LaFlare and Brian Ebersole in universally panned fights.
As for Larkin, he is also a striker who is making the drop from middleweight. He is immensely powerful with excellent kicks and knees, and he is also comfortable while working in the clinch.
Like Howard, Larkin is also fighting for his job, as he is 1-4 in the UFC and has dropped three in a row. He did beat Chris Camozzi handily, but Francis Carmont, Brad Tavares, Costa Philippou and Derek Brunson defeated him along the way.
The Strikeforce veteran is probably the more powerful and technically preferred fighter in this bout. However, Howard is smart, and knowing his back is against the wall, he will use timely takedowns and a good defensive strategy to outlast Da Monsoon.
Prediction: Howard def. Larkin via decision
Cathal Pendred vs. Sean Spencer
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Capping off the prelims are the welterweights, as top Irish fighter Cathal Pendred takes on underrated dark horse Sean Spencer.
Pendred is probably the best fighter from Ireland not named Conor McGregor at this point. The welterweight, who was pegged as a top prospects coming into the UFC, is an alum of TUF 19, where he failed to make the finals while fighting up a weight class.
His UFC tenure thus far has been immensely successful with a 2-0 record thus far. He won an amazing come-from-behind fight against Mike King by second-round submission and followed that up with a decision win over Gasan Umalatov in Sweden.
As for Spencer, he is a dark horse at 170 pounds and will look to continue his under-the-radar success here. Despite dropping losses to Rafael Natal (at 185) and Alex Garcia, he has taken good wins over the likes of Yuri Villefort, Drew Dober and Paulo Thiago.
Spencer is a striker with good quickness and in-and-out movement. He is also physically stronger at 170 as opposed to 185, which shows that the move to welterweight was the right one.
He is going to make this an interesting fight. His quickness and athleticism could cause problems for Pendred. However, size and strength are on the side of Pendred, who will use that to clinch, dirty box and take Spencer down, which will get him his third UFC victory here.
Prediction: Pendred def. Spencer via decision
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