Calling Fact or Fiction on Top Boxing Rumors and Speculation
Lacking tournaments and playoff systems, boxing fans are forced to spend much more time than the fans of the team sports wondering about potential matchups. And a big part of following the sport is sifting through rumor and speculation.
Because what should happen and what does happen differ radically at times in the sport of boxing, a number of these predictions come with varying degrees of qualification.
Stating what should happen is usually fairly straightforward and easy. Guessing what will happen is a different matter entirely.
Shannon Briggs Will Fight Wladimir Klitschko: Fiction Copying Fiction
1 of 10Shannon Briggs spent much of 2014 doing a real-life imitation of Clubber Lang stalking Rocky around the globe. In the video included here, he openly acknowledges the movie as his inspiration, warning a member of Wladimir Klitschko's team that "Mr. T killed Mickey!"
Briggs deserves credit for getting back into great shape at 43. And he's in "ring shape," having maintained a very active schedule during 2014, going 6-0 with five knockouts.
But the only remotely recognizable name on his 2014 resume is Matthew Greer. And Greer is only recognizable because of how many times he's been knocked out by other contenders.
Briggs is one of the few challengers to last the distance against Vitali Klitschko, losing by unanimous decision in a 2010 title challenge. But Briggs absorbed brutal punishment in that fight and retired for four years following it.
His insistence that the younger Klitschko is ducking him, as the rightful top challenger, is delusional. But the fight game has always been part show business, so Briggs can't really be faulted for laying on the hype.
A jacked-up, Brooklyn-born, 40-something loudmouth could certainly sell a lot of tickets in the Barclays Center. It's not impossible that this fight could come off.
But to jump the line to a title fight, Briggs is going to need to record a win similar to Larry Holmes beating Ray Mercer or George Foreman stopping guys like Bert Cooper and Dwight Muhammad Qawi during their own post-40 campaigns.
He's a long way from doing that so far.
Guillermo Rigondeaux Will Headline in Cuba: Fact, but Only in a Better World
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Making a prediction on this one requires a writer to extend beyond obsessively following boxing blogs and working social media and paying attention to the actual, real-life news. At the end of 2014, the Obama administration significantly eased some of the longtime sanctions imposed upon Cuba.
Still, it appears we are still a long way away from seeing a professional card from Havana broadcast on premium cable.
In a better world, sports would be allowed to transcend politics, and Guillermo Rigondeaux would make a triumphant return to his homeland to receive the sort of fan adoration he deserves while defending his title against a meaningful challenger.
The historical storyline of this would be enough to bring HBO back onto the bandwagon. The geopolitical significance would create perfect synergy for a segment on Bryant Gumbel's mildly intellectual Real Sports.
Elisinio Castillo reported on BoxingScene.com that Rigo's people dream of having him fight in Cuba. It's an epic story worthy of a biopic. The fighter who fled in a motorboat, returning as a champion.
Even though it remains unlikely, the door has opened at least enough to make it worth putting out there as an intention. It's the sort of opportunity Rigondeaux deserves.
Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Will Fight Carl Froch: Fact
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Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. has a lot to prove going into 2015 if he wishes to remain a marquee name in boxing. He fought just once in 2014, earning a unanimous-decision victory over journeyman Bryan Vera in March.
That win hardly impressed the boxing public. It was merely Chavez finally accomplishing what he should have accomplished six months earlier when he fought Vera the first time.
Before his first fight with Vera, Chavez Jr. was repeatedly unprofessional around making weight. In the actual fight, Vera outhustled and out-toughed him, while a visibly fatigued Chavez spent most of his remaining energy complaining to the referee about various perceived infractions.
The crowd booed Chavez Jr.'s unanimous-decision verdict in the first fight.
But a motivated and properly trained Chavez would still make for an intriguing matchup with super middleweight champion Carl Froch.
Chavez really does have his legendary father's chin and persistence or at least something close to it. Froch's chin might be even better. And although the hard-nosed Brit is crafty, he's also very hittable.
Chavez-Froch has the potential to be one of the biggest fights of early 2014. The winner could face Gennady Golovkin in an even bigger fight.
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Roman Gonzalez vs. Naoya Inoue: Fact, and Thank God for the Japanese
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These are two of the fighters in my top five for 2014 Fighter of the Year campaign in the sport's lowest weight classes. And while Roman Gonzalez and Naoya Inoue are still tragically neglected in the United States media landscape, they have fortunately begun to find the appreciative audience they deserve in Japan.
Inoue emerged last year as one of the most remarkable boxing phenoms of recent years. Last April, in just his sixth professional fight, Inoue stopped veteran WBC light flyweight champion Adrian Hernandez in six rounds.
As impressive as that was, Inoue ended the year with an exclamation point. On December 30, he stopped WBO super flyweight champion Omar Narvaez in Round 2.
Narvaez had reigned as a world champion for over a decade. His only loss had come when he jumped to bantamweight to challenge Nonito Donaire. And Donaire could not finish the crafty Narvaez.
At just 21, Inoue jumped up two weight classes and smashed Narvaez.
Gonzalez, meanwhile, spent 2014 solidifying his eventual enshrinement in the Hall of Fame. He became a three-division world champion when he knocked out lineal flyweight champion Akira Yaegashi in September.
Gonzalez and Inoue are both promoted by the same team in Japan. This seems like an inevitable 2015 superfight. Elisinio Castillo has reported on BoxingScene.com that it's very possible for the end of next year.
Amir Khan Will Fight Floyd Mayweather: Fact, Alas
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With his impressive win over Devon Alexander in December, Amir Khan proved he is legitimately one of the better welterweights in the world.
But considering his two knockout losses and controversial split-decision setback against Lamont Peterson, I'd still prefer to see Khan win either a rematch against Danny Garcia or a title against Kell Brook before I am ready to accept him as a true challenger to Floyd Mayweather.
But Floyd Mayweather is going to need somebody as an opponent on his next pay-per-view, and Khan at least has the additional promotional cache of being British. Mayweather might even be enticed to leave Las Vegas in favor of a sold-out Wembley Stadium.
I'm not sure what percentage of the boxing public will really be thrilled to see Amir Khan fight Floyd Mayweather, but that doesn't mean we aren't going to get exactly that.
Wladimir Klitschko Will Fight the Winner of Wilder-Stiverne: Fact
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On January 17, we'll at long last see a true heavyweight clash in the United States, when undefeated knockout-machine Deontay Wilder challenges power-punching WBC champion Bermane Stiverne.
There's a good chance somebody will win this fight in exciting fashion, and whoever that is will have a level of public status not enjoyed in years by any North American heavyweight.
What he won't have is a true heavyweight title. When Vitali Klitschko retired and vacated the WBC heavyweight belt, any true significance the WBC strap had as a legitimate heavyweight belt retired with him. All the titles that matter remain in the hands of younger brother Wladimir.
There is already widespread speculation that Klitschko will fight American contender Bryant Jennings in the spring. If Klitschko does so, consider it a likely indicator that he's anxious to make a unification bout too.
With his popularity in Germany and Russia, there has been no reason for Klitschko to fight in the United States in recent years. But with high-profile American contenders finally emerging again, expect to see the longtime Ukrainian star back in action in the United States this year.
There is, of course, a possibility that the winner of Stiverne-Wilder will not be interested in a unification bout and will prefer to instead defend the WBC strap as a meaningless ornament against smaller threats. Boxing can be a funny business, after all.
Miguel Cotto Will Defend Against Saul Alvarez: Fact in a Logical World
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This one does seem less certain now than it did a month or two ago, based on comments Miguel Cotto made to BoxingScene.com's Miguel Rivera. As a rule of thumb, the longer the amount of time between when we start hearing rumors that a fight is "set" and when we see the actual press conference announcing the fight, the less likely it is to happen.
But realistically, this is the fight that makes the most sense right now for both men. It's a huge potential payday for Cotto against a challenger he has a good chance of defeating.
For Alvarez, it's the only fight that makes sense. It gets him a world title in a second division and a victory over a legend.
From a promotional point of view, this fight has the classic Mexico-Puerto Rico rivalry. Cotto and Canelo are the current banner-carriers for two of the sport's proudest national traditions.
"Don't believe it until you see it" is a good rule of thumb to operate from. But if Cotto-Alvarez isn't made fairly early in 2015, it could be a leading indicator that not a lot is going to make sense in the sport this year.
Miguel Cotto Will Defend Against Floyd Mayweather: Probably Fiction
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When Miguel Cotto shocked Sergio Martinez last June and captured the lineal middleweight title, it put the Puerto Rican legend in the driver's seat for a lot of big deals. It made him a desired opponent in a superfight for both Gennady Golovkin and Canelo Alvarez, two of the hottest rising stars in the sport.
But it also put him back in the running for another ticket in the Floyd Mayweather sweepstakes. Although Cotto didn't come very close to winning in 2012, his performance was at least credible. And now that Cotto has the lineal title at middleweight, another win over him would have important historical implications for Mayweather.
With Freddie Roach training Cotto for a rematch, HBO's 24/7 could push a storyline that the rematch will somehow be more competitive. I believe Cotto would have the promotional control to negotiate the fight without any input or interference from Bob Arum.
In a lot of ways, the fight makes sense. But ultimately, I don't think it will happen.
Cotto can probably make at least as much money fighting Alvarez in a fight where the outcome would be viewed as much more in doubt and where Cotto would have a better chance at emerging with the belt still around his waist.
Manny Pacquiao Will Fight Marcos Maidana: Fiction
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For much of the past decade, the best way to get an opportunity to fight against Manny Pacquiao or Floyd Mayweather seemed to be to fight the other superstar first. Oscar De La Hoya, Ricky Hatton, Miguel Cotto, Juan Manuel Marquez and Shane Mosley all faced both Pacquiao and Mayweather.
In each case, a big part of the interest around the second fight was finding out how the opponent would fare against the other rival.
Marcos Maidana spent 2014 having limited but surprising success against Mayweather. It makes sense he would want to fight Pacquiao for his next bout.
This fight has some logic if Pacquiao doesn't end up fighting Mayweather this spring (which he won't). But at this point in his career, I don't see Freddie Roach signing up Pacquiao to face a bruising mauler like Maidana.
Roach has already talked to The Ring's Ryan Songalia about bringing Pacquiao back down to 140 pounds. Maidana came in at over 160 pounds the night of his first fight with Mayweather.
I don't see Roach letting Pacquiao back in the ring ever again with a fighter that big.
Floyd Mayweather Will Fight Manny Pacquiao: Forever Fiction
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If boxing fans and writers had true self respect, we'd simply stop talking about this endlessly discussed superfight. In the old days, this fight would have gone off sometime between 2009 and 2011. The only way we should still be talking about it in 2015 is if it had happened in 2010 and was the kind of classic we still talked about five years later.
But as 2014 came to an end, both Mayweather and Pacquiao stepped up their own jawing. So the chatter around a potential Pacquiao-Mayweather fight has gotten busier than it has been in years.
I reserve the right to be cynical about any farce that has gone on for this long. If this fight hasn't happened yet, I have a hard time believing it will happen this year, despite the rumors heating up, as evidenced by Sports Illustrated's Chris Manix.
I'd like to say I no longer even care, but that would be a lie.
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