Colts Must Halt Passing Game Regression to Take Down Bengals

The Indianapolis Colts destroyed the Cincinnati Bengals the first time these two teams met this season, in a 27-0 shellacking with Bengals wideout A.J. Green sidelined in Week 7.

We must acknowledge this when we discuss the two teams, but we also must acknowledge that these teams are not remotely the same at this point in the season. Cincinnati's run defense has rebounded from their horrible early-season performance—per Football Outsiders, they've had a negative run defense DVOA in five of their last seven games—and they won't be giving up 77 rushing yards (not a typo) to Colts running back Trent Richardson again.  

More importantly for the Colts, we must acknowledge that their passing game hasn't been the same for a number of weeks now, and that pull back to the pack can be summed up in regression and injuries for the main targets of their passing game.

Player	Targets	DYAR	DVOA	Catch Rate
T.Y. Hilton	85	273	28.9%	67%
Ahmad Bradshaw	42	158	47.0%	81%
Dwayne Allen	40	116	35.1%	65%
Reggie Wayne	72	58	-2.2%	60%
Trent Richardson	26	55	24.1%	81%
Donte Moncrief	24	31	4.1%	71%
Coby Fleener	46	10	-4.3%	49%
Hakeem Nicks	44	-21	-18.9%	51%

An overlooked loss for the Colts has been running back Ahmad Bradshaw. Not only was Bradshaw the best running back the Colts had, he also was their best red-zone passing weapon. Per Football Outsiders, Bradshaw compiled an 85.0% DVOA on 14 red-zone targets, by far the best for Indianapolis. 

While Hakeem Nicks has been better over the past month (-4.3% DVOA on 22 targets), he has been out-of-sync with quarterback Andrew Luck often this season. Colts fans looking at Nicks' postseason record for solace should note that those games happened in 2011, and Nicks was a much different receiver then.

Finally, there is the sad ending of wideout Reggie Wayne. Wayne should be given credit for fighting through his multitude of injuries, including a torn triceps, and an ankle injury sustained last week. But he's just not the same receiver anymore, and the second-half numbers prove it.  

Player	Targets	DYAR	DVOA	Catch Rate
Coby Fleener	48	104	25.7%	62%
T.Y. Hilton	47	26	-5.7%	55%
Hakeem Nicks	28	20	-3.2%	63%
Donte Moncrief	25	15	-4.7%	60%
Dan Herron	24	12	-5.2%	79%
Dwayne Allen	10	-6	-16.3%	33%
Jack Doyle	13	-14	-20.6%	69%
Reggie Wayne	46	-63	-30.5%	50%

With Wayne ailing, none of the other Colts targets have really stepped up to fill the void. Donte Moncrief has faded after a hot start, and Indianapolis just doesn't seem to have a game-plan spot for him at this point in his career. Tight end Coby Fleener has been fine, but his hands and predilection to dropping contested footballs make him someone you'd rather have as a No. 3 or 4 option, not a No. 2. 

There is no longer any support from the running backs in the passing game, which is a huge problem for the Colts given the way the Bengals passing defense has split out this season:

Receiver Type	DVOA	Rank
vs. No. 1 receivers	-28.9%	1
vs. No. 2 receivers	-33.4%	3
vs. Other receivers	-24.9%	2
vs. Tight ends	-21.0%	4
vs. Running backs	26.5%	29

Finally, there's the question of No. 1 wideout T.Y. Hilton's health. Hilton sat out Week 16 with a hamstring injury, then played two mostly meaningless quarters in Tennessee that resulted in three targets and no catches. The Colts tend to be very secretive with their injuries, and anything that holds back Hilton in this game could put the passing offense on life support. 

Often, when we come across splits as extreme as Indianapolis has seen over the past few months, we are forced to ask ourselves if they are meaningful, or if they are a case of "splits happen." 

It's hard to square up what we saw from Luck in the first half of the season with what we saw in the second. However, I think the extreme splits are something that can be explained by injuries (Bradshaw, Wayne, Hilton, Dwayne Allen and offensive line) and regression (Moncrief), and this makes me more apt to believe that they will continue to hold back the Indianapolis offense come Sunday. 

That doesn't mean they necessarily will—momentum is a fun concept, but Indianapolis definitely has the talent to shake off how they've played recently. 

Will they? That will be the main determining factor in whether the Colts make it back to the divisional round or not. 

Rivers McCown is the AFC South lead writer for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Three-Cone Drill podcast. His work has also appeared on Football Outsiders and ESPN.com. Follow him on Twitter at @riversmccown.