NFL Playoff Odds 2015: Early Picks Against the Spread for Wild Card Round Games

The Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs will feature two very different pairings in each conference.  Whereas the NFC has a pair of solid home favorites in the Dallas Cowboys and Carolina Panthers, the AFC's deep wild-card contending field has yielded two dangerous road underdogs in the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals.

With the talent margin narrower in the postseason, it's tougher to flesh out significant differences that can meaningfully affect the game's outcome.  Moreover, with just four games on the dock, the extra attention focused on each contest means that there is less room for bettors to exploit little-known inefficiencies among individual contests.

Nevertheless, that doesn't mean that you can't take advantage of the lines early in the week while Vegas settles in on a consensus.  Looking at the odds via Odds Shark, let's pick and explain each prediction for the four matchups.

Game	Spread	Pick ATS
Arizona vs. Carolina	CAR -7	Arizona
Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh	PIT -3	Baltimore
Cincinnati vs. Indianapolis	IND -3.5	Indianapolis
Detroit vs. Dallas	DAL -8	Dallas

Cardinals over Panthers

Despite their losing record, the Panthers do hold a fairly significant edge over Arizona.  Behind the Panthers' defensive resurgence and running game, it's not hard to imagine Carolina controlling the game against a Cardinals squad with a nonexistent passing game and a defense that has allowed an average of 135 rushing yards per game over the past six weeks.

However, favoring the Panthers by a full touchdown seems a bit excessive.  For one, Carolina has won by more than one possession just twice all season, with both those wins over the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons coming during their season-ending four-game winning streak.  However, Carolina also used five turnovers—including two pick-sixes—to catalyze the large margins of victories.

Those aren't necessarily repeatable skills, even though Ryan Lindley has thrown four picks in his two starts.  More likely, the Panthers will make this a low-possession game where they can control the clock with the legs of Jonathan Stewart and Cam Newton.

Unless the Panthers open up their offense and attack the Arizona secondary, the relative strength of that defense, this is unlikely to turn into a shootout.  Thus, if the Cards offense is even remotely competent, you're better off taking the points with the current line.

Ravens over Steelers

This essentially boils down to the increasing likelihood that Le'Veon Bell misses Saturday night's contest.  After inking the twice-cut Ben Tate on Tuesday, it appears the Steelers are preparing for the reality that they will miss their most versatile offensive weapon:

That could open the door for Joe Flacco and Co. to squeeze out enough points to get by.  The Steelers defense ranks 30th against the pass, based on Football Outsiders' opponent-adjusted DVOA metrics.  Pittsburgh's younger talent at defensive back has either busted (Cortez Allen) or failed to live up to expectations (Mike Mitchell), leaving declining standbys like Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor to pick up the load.

Some may suggest that Ben Roethlisberger faces an even juicier matchup against Baltimore's depleted secondary, but unlike the Steelers, the Ravens may be able to cover up their flaws with the pass rush.

Baltimore's 7.61 percent regular-season sack percentage is the highest mark of any team in the playoff field, per TeamRankings.com, as the trio of Pernell McPhee, Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil were all among the best 3-4 outside linebackers in the league this season:

If Pittsburgh's offense becomes totally one-dimensional without Bell, it's not difficult to envision the Ravens teeing off and battering Roethlisberger.  That would subsequently leave the Steelers' subpar defense exposed, increasing Baltimore's chances of pulling the upset in the weekend's closest spread.

Colts over Bengals

Using Cincy's recent playoff failures against it is lazy logic, so let's focus solely on this season.  It's hard to remember, but Cincinnati's 3-0 start had advanced metrics pegging it as the league's best team. Since then, however, the Bengals have steadily declined, to the point where they finished the season ranked 14th in DVOA and 15th in Advanced Football Analytics' Gross Winning Percentage.  

The Bengals also played one of their worst games of the year at Lucas Oil Stadium, dropping a 27-0 whitewashing in which they were outgained 506-135.  

Moreover, A.J. Green, Andy Dalton's top security blanket, is under concussion protocol this week, making him a sketchy proposition to suit up.  Despite dealing with various toe, ankle, arm and now concussion maladies, Green has arguably been the league's top receiver on a per-play basis:

If Cincy puts a comprised Green out there, that only makes Vontae Davis' job easier.  It also enables the Colts to play more single-high safety coverages, knowing they can trust Davis on an island against Green, and devote someone like LaRon Landry or Sergio Brown toward stuffing the Jeremy Hill-Giovani Bernard backfield duo.

Andrew Luck will put up points against the 17th-ranked defense by weighted DVOA (which measures recent performance).  Without his top weapon at 100 percent, Dalton is unlikely to keep up with the Colts, making Indy a solid bet to cover this spread.

Lions over Cowboys

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

This is the trickiest bet on the board, as the line figures to shift back down after Ndamukong Suh's suspension was waived, as Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press reported.  Though Suh is not the only reason for Detroit's defensive dominance this season, his presence in the lineup represents a game-changing impact that cannot be understated:

Now, the pillar behind Detroit's top-ranked run defense is intact, making DeMarco Murray and the Dallas running game a much more tenuous proposition.  The Lions have not allowed a 100-yard rusher all season, even with Nick Fairley missing the final eight games with sprained knee ligaments.  

While Murray has remained effective despite slowing down from his historic September and October pace, he averaged just 79.7 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks, well below his lofty standards. 

If the Lions can force Tony Romo into unfavorable down-and-distance situations, Detroit will have a real chance to slow the prolific Cowboys offense and create some turnovers.  According to Pro-Football-Reference, Romo's 86.1 passer rating on 2nd- or 3rd-and-long situations (10 or more yards to go) ranked 18th among qualified passers (min. 50 pass attempts).  Romo's 8.4 percent sack percentage in those situations was also well above his 6.5 percent rate for the season.

The Detroit secondary does not necessarily have the ingredients to shut down Dez Bryant, but that might not matter if the Lions can fluster Romo.  If the defense can allow Matthew Stafford and the offense to control the game's rhythm rather than playing catch-up, their upset bid becomes much stronger.  

Jump on this line and take the points before it drops.