Rugby Preview: South Africa vs. Australia

The Wallabies have had to endure a preparation without coach Robbie Deans, as they prepare to face the team now considered the best side in the world.

Some in the North would argue this point, with Ireland and Wales, who provided the bulk of the recent Lions side, having not played a Southern nation for over eight months. 

The reality is that the All Blacks had earned the right to be called the best side in the world based on their heroics of 2008, and were overrun both by their own tactical inanity and a sublime unadorned game plan by Peter De Villiers' men.

Back-to-back victories by South Africa over the men in black have earned them both the IRB’s tag as the No. 1 team, and deserved favourites at this stage of the Tri Nations.

But a lot can change in one match.

For Australia, they will look to get a faltered season back on track, after losing to the All Blacks in Eden Park when they had the players, the early lead, and the momentum from a four-from-four home season to have killed off their old adversaries.

Ironically, the All Blacks victory and comeback in the later stages of that game was based around a pressure game plan and physical dominance in the tackle.

This was then the manner in which the Springboks defeated the All Blacks.

An approach that was simple and devastatingly effective.  While some, even within the Bokke’s borders, may say that it is a methodology that is boring and unspectacular (not adhering to the basic principle that rugby is ultimately entertainment) the be-all and end-all in test match rugby is about one thing.

Winning.

As the All Blacks have learned; for while their almost kamikaze approach was geared towards attacking and entertaining rugby, few care for a flamboyant style of "you lose."

In this, the Wallabies need to find a medium, and the Lions did show the necessary blueprint required to beating the fearsome Springboks.

Quell their physicality, run at them with well executed and supported attacking lines (a la Jamie Roberts and Brian O’Driscoll), and don’t let them apply a stranglehold in your own half.

This needs to be backed up by a strong kicking game, with the Springboks reigning supreme with a triple-headed punting menace in Fourie Du Preez, Morne Steyn, and Francois Steyn.

If this threat can be nullified, the South Africans have shown little inclination to run the ball.  While the application of their strategy is brutally simple, it is hardly one that cannot be countered.

However, that is easier said than done.

While the Wallaby pack will be faced with their biggest challenge so far this year, the fate of the Australian’s success will rest on their playing axis of Matt Giteau and Berrick Barnes.

The Springboks have not encountered a pure twin playmaking bloc so far this year, and if the two talented “first and second” five eighths can control and sustain the play, something the All Blacks could not do, then the Wallabies could spring an upset.

The advantage here lies with the Wallabies in the fact that the Springboks will not likely change their patterns, and the tourists will not play dumb or high-risk rugby.

But as the All Blacks showed in their Garden of Eden, a confrontational style will upset Australia.

So for all the talk of guile and poise from the Australians, if the Springbok pack, anchored by Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha playing their 50th test as a combination, dictates terms, then the Bokke will clean sweep all of their Tri Nations home games.

The Wallabies cannot do what the All Blacks did at times and shirk from this threat.

Again, as the Lions showed, you must attack the Springboks where they are most potent.

On paper, the teams appear to be relatively well matched. 

It will be both De Villiers' and Dean's 19th test match in charge of their men, with both fielding unchanged starting XV’s for the first time in their respective tenures.

No one has mentioned it, but there may be thoughts of revenge on the minds of the Wallabies, having suffered a test record 8-53 loss in Johannesburg in their last meeting.

In this though, the Wallabies will field what appears now to be their strongest side, with no obvious weak link in the team, whereas at Ellis Park the Springboks ran riot in Timana Tahu’s channel. 

However, the Springboks have evolved this year, unveiling two brilliant match winners who can do no wrong on the field. 

The Wallabies though may target the new threats of Steyn and the outstanding Heinrich Brussouw, with the home team relying on the Bull’s first five’s boot and the new dimension they have at the breakdown with the Free State flankers scavenging.

In summary, it is simple. 

If the Wallabies can shut down key aspects of the Bokke, they will win.  If the World Cup winners are allowed to impose their rudimentary play on the visitors, it could get ugly.

Head to head: Played 65, Springboks 38, Wallabies 26, Drawn 1

At Newlands: Played 9, Springboks 6, Wallabies 3

South Africa: 15 Frans Steyn, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Heinrich Brüssow, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 John Smit (captain), 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 Jannie du Plessis, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Danie Rossouw, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Ruan Pienaar, 22 Adi Jacobs

Australia: 15 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14 Lachie Turner, 13 Stirling Mortlock (captain), 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Luke Burgess, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 George Smith, 6 Richard Brown, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 James Horwill, 3 Al Baxter, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 17 Ben Alexander, 18 Dean Mumm, 19 David Pocock, 20 Will Genia, 21 Peter Hynes, 22 James O'Connor.

Referee: Alain Rolland (Ireland)