10 Bold Predictions for Boxing in 2015
Happy New Year, boxing fans!
We hope that 2015 brings the sport even bigger stars, better fights and more excitement than the year past, and we'll set you up with our 10 bold predictions for boxing in the coming 12 months.
What big fights will happen?
Will the big fight finally take place?
Who will step forward?
Who will step back?
Let's get right into it and take a look.
These are 10 bold predictions for boxing in 2015.
Floyd Mayweather Will Fight Manny Pacquiao...
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Go big or go home, right?
It will happen in 2015.
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao.
You could even give the fight a clever tagline:
Mayweather vs. Pacquiao: We’ve Finally Run Out of Options!
And that’s what it’s really all about, no?
Mayweather and Pacquiao have been boxing’s undisputed top draws for years, and the public has clamored for a fight between the two pound-for-pound stars for longer than most of us would care to remember.
But so much of that has fallen on deaf ears, with Mayweather making money demands he had to know wouldn't be accepted, to Pacquiao, once upon a time, being intransigent on random blood testing, both men share the blame.
Who gets more of it?
You decide.
Mayweather fans are passionate about their guy, often making you feel as if they have some personal financial stake in his continued enrichment, and Pacquiao fans can often be just as unreasonable, if not more so.
None of that changes that the time has finally come for all this mess to be settled in the ring.
Mayweather had a solid year at the box office in 2014.
He eclipsed 900,000 pay-per-view buys for each of his contests with Marcos Maidana, the two highest-drawing PPV bouts of the year, but saw a steep drop from his contest with Canelo Alvarez the previous September.
His cupboard is bare, at least as far as fights that would draw in people beyond the usual suspects, and that’s where the real money is made.
Pacquiao did even worse. His rematch victory over Timothy Bradley in April did well but failed to top the buys of the first bout, and a November title defense against Chris Algieri was an utter box-office failure if you believe the rumors.
With some network heavyweights now involved in the process, and both men eagerly expressing a desire for the fight to finally happen, let’s start out by saying boxing fans will get their wish.
When?
Who knows.
But it will happen next year.
...And He'll Beat Him
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Mayweather is a better fighter.
Period.
End of discussion.
Should he step into the ring with Pacquiao—in this humble opinion—the fight wouldn’t be terribly close. Mayweather’s sharp counters and ability to maneuver himself into advantageous ring positions would allow him to cut the Filipino icon up and avoid most of his offensive attack.
It could easily be a prototypical Mayweather 118-110 type decision or even a late-accumulation stoppage, depending on how much the pound-for-pound king wants to press late in the fight.
And there you have it.
You may have noticed that your’s truly has been a tad more critical of Mayweather in recent weeks.
You wouldn’t be wrong, nor is that an accident.
Mayweather has allowed Pacquiao and his team to drive the narrative for so long that you can’t help but—if you’re coming in this late in the game at least—feel that Floyd’s the driving force behind preventing boxing’s biggest fight in decades.
Of course, the truth lies somewhere in the middle, but it’s maddening to see a fighter as talented as Mayweather stand there with Steve Farhood and sound like he's giving a litany of reasons why the fight won’t happen rather than why it must.
Mayweather could add to his legacy, fatten his wallet by a considerable sum and silence nearly all of his critics by just doing what he does best: make an elite fighter look ordinary.
That’s exactly what he will do in this fight, and that’s exactly why it’s so hard to understand his reluctance.
Canelo Alvarez Will Seize the Mantle from Miguel Cotto...
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Canelo has a fighting spirit.
You have to give the kid that much.
The 24-year-old rebounded from his defeat against Mayweather by seeking out anything-but-easy fights in 2014.
It was a no-soft-touch zone for the rising sensation.
Canelo dominated and stopped the rugged and durable Alfredo Angulo in March before taking a narrow-but-deserved decision from Erislandy Lara in July, a fight most felt would never happen because of the Cuban’s tricky, awkward style and low reward for his level of risk.
Now the cinnamon-haired former champ is setting his sights on bigger and better things.
Miguel Cotto won the lineal and WBC Middleweight Championships from Sergio Martinez in June, and he's been widely believed to be targeting a showdown with Canelo for May 2 on HBO PPV.
Puerto Rico vs. Mexico?
Cinco de Mayo weekend?
Anyone not want to see that fight?
Didn’t think so.
Canelo has expressed some recent frustration at the slow pace of negotiations, per Mike Coppinger, calling on Cotto to finalize the deal already, but it would be truly shocking to see this fight fall apart so close to the finish line.
The Mexican sensation is already a superstar who told Bleacher Report that he’s willing to face anyone, and he’ll grow that brand even further by taking on and beating Cotto to stake his own claim at middleweight supremacy.
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...But Get Stomped by Gennady Golovkin
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Did somebody mention Gennady Golovkin?
Oscar De La Hoya floated the undefeated Kazakh knockout machine as a future foil for his young protege Canelo after he dispensed with the ugly Lara business in July, but, to be honest, not many people took it very seriously at the time.
Why would you risk a young, blossoming superstar against a fighter as powerful and dominant as GGG?
It doesn't pass the eye test.
Just seems too dangerous.
But in boxing, it’s known as D.T.B.G.
Dare To Be Great.
Canelo wants to be great, and he seems to get that the surest path there is by seeking and accepting the toughest challenges, especially ones people think you won’t take.
So long as he’s willing to risk losing one or two along the way, he should be just fine.
Sugar Ray Robinson—not making a comparison other than pure numbers—fought the best of his eras and lost 19 times. Nobody is holding that against him.
Enter Golovkin.
Should Canelo take this fight, which past history indicates he will if it's available, he will lose.
Golovkin is an offensive force the likes of which he’s never seen before, and that’s not a criticism of Alvarez but a high level of praise for GGG.
The Kazakh is a patient operator. He has underrated technical boxing skill, sets up his power punches with a stiff jab and cuts off the ring with frightening efficiency.
Having sat ringside for three of his fights—Gabriel Rosado, Curtis Stevens and Daniel Geale—this writer can testify personally to the sickening thud that marks the arrival of one of his punches on the intended target, be it body, face, head or anything in between.
Canelo is a true warrior, but Golovkin is a monster.
Andre Ward Will Fight Again
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Someone send out an all-points bulletin for Andre Ward!
Oh wait. He’s on HBO every week, just not fighting.
Jokes aside, Ward is a prodigious talent with possibly the single greatest resume in super middleweight history. He won the Super Six, cleaned out his division by beating everyone and their brother, took down the recognized champ from a division north, and then he just stopped fighting.
We can talk all we want about promotional issues—Ward has been engaged in a legal battle with his now-deceased longtime promoter Dan Goossen and his promotional company—but when you lose time after time in court, maybe you’re fighting in the wrong place.
Ward only fought once in 2013 and didn’t see the inside of a boxing ring at all last year.
That will change in 2015.
Ward is just too talented, and there are just too many prime-time fights available in and around his weight class for him to sit on the sidelines much longer. Otherwise, it will go down as one of the greatest stories of wasted talent in boxing history.
That won’t happen. It can’t happen.
Ward will return for something of a tuneup bout in the spring before getting himself right back into the big-time mix in the fall.
Amir Khan Will Meet Kell Brook at Wembley Stadium
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If Mayweather and Pacquiao do indeed tango in 2015, that once again leaves Amir Khan without a dance partner of his own.
The 28-year-old from Bolton has spent much of the past year and change of his career in full-time pursuit of Mayweather, a quest that, thus far, has borne no fruit.
Khan easily handled former two-time welterweight champion Devon Alexander in December, but Mayweather has remained dismissive, saying, per Matt Morlidge of the Daily Mail, “no one has heard of him.”
That’s obviously an attempt at needling, and just not true, but Khan’s chances don’t seem enhanced by Mayweather’s public criticism.
It's probably best for him to just move on now and seek the next best thing.
Khan will meet Kell Brook for the IBF Welterweight Championship next year at Wembley Stadium in London.
Hosting all-Brit boxing matches at Wembley seems to be in vogue these days, after Carl Froch and George Groves battled in front of 80,000-or-so sets of eyes last May, and the Bolton vs. Sheffield match for a world title seems a logical next event for the iconic venue.
It’s a bout that’s been discussed extensively in the past, and it would provide a huge payday and big-time domestic box office across the pond.
There’s really no reason why this shouldn’t happen.
HBO Will Win the Network War
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HBO is back in charge.
The network seemed to cede a bit of the advantage for cable-boxing preponderance to rival Showtime in 2013, losing pound-for-pound king Mayweather and Golden Boy Promotions’ talented stable of fighters.
Despite the huge loss of talent, HBO still had 19 of the 20 most watched cable fights that year, even as Showtime’s Mayweather vs. Canelo PPV was the highest grossing fight in history.
Showtime didn’t do itself any favors in 2014, forgetting what got it into position to challenge for the throne by presenting a slew of horrible mismatches and bouts featuring upper-level fighters against woefully inferior challengers.
HBO again dominated the ratings game, Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.’s March rematch with Bryan Vera was the highest rated cable fight of the year with Bernard Hopkins vs. Sergey Kovalev second, Canelo signed an exclusive multi-fight deal, and a trio of fighters took steps toward superstardom.
Golovkin, Terence Crawford and Kovalev all made cases for Fighter of the Year honors, and each man took high-profile risks against quality fighters in the past 12 months.
The same can’t be said for Showtime’s young guns, including uber-talented Keith Thurman, who fought a former lightweight champion and an undefeated 40-year-old with zero power. Or Danny Garcia, who got a home-cooked verdict against Mauricio Herrera and then knocked out a dangerously underqualified smaller man.
HBO has clearly stemmed the tide and retained its top spot. Showtime has the talent to make another push in 2015, but it needs to focus more of its attention on what got it here: making quality fights and not mismatches.
Sergey Kovalev Will Become Undisputed Light Heavyweight Champion
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This is a bit of a misnomer because yours truly already considers Kovalev to be the legitimate man at 175 pounds. But for the sake of formalities, he will leave absolutely no doubt in 2015.
The Krusher seemed to be the odd one out when WBC light heavyweight champion Adonis Stevenson took his ball and ran across the tracks to rival Showtime, leaving the Russian without a significant fight on the horizon.
Care to look at each man’s resume since?
Stevenson went life and death with Andrzej Fonfara, winning a decision in May before blowing out the frightfully underqualified Dmitry Sukhotsky in December.
Kovalev knocked out Cedric Agnew and Blake Caparello before knocking down and winning every round against ageless wonder Bernard Hopkins in November.
With three-fourths of the light heavyweight title now in his possession, the Krusher will defend against former undisputed champion Jean Pascal in March.
Questions?
Stevenson could’ve had both the Hopkins and Pascal fights, but he blew chances at each. That alone makes his claim to any sort of 175-pound supremacy spurious at best.
Still, you respect the man who beat the man, and Stevenson did do that by knocking out Chad Dawson.
He’s suddenly open, at least in public, to the idea of facing Kovalev next year, which, when it happens, would mark the likely end of his talking for a while.
Kovalev is the man in his neighborhood, and he’ll beat Stevenson and anyone else who comes his way in the coming year.
B-Hops Will Give Us a Swan Song to Remember
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Hopkins dropped the light heavyweight championship to Kovalev in November, torpedoing my prediction from last year that he’d reach age 50 with a world title still on his waist, but that doesn’t make his late-career run any less remarkable.
Men half his age would have wilted under Kovalev’s furious assault—Round 12 was absolutely brutal—but there he stood, refusing to quit on the fight despite losing every round and having nothing to prove.
Hopkins, the oldest man to win, defend and unify a world championship, hasn’t pulled the curtains on his Hall of Fame career, instead declaring that he’d like one more fight.
But it’s going to be on his terms, and why not?
He’s earned that right.
Hopkins said, per Steve Ginsburg, that he wants to face a dominant champion from a lower weight class. That sounded then, and even more so now, like code for Golovkin, the undefeated middleweight bomber who has knocked out his last 18 opponents.
Sounds crazy, doesn’t it?
Not if you know Hopkins or have ever gotten to pick his brain a bit. This is an individual uniquely motivated by the desire to push the envelope well past its normal limits.
That’s not to say this is a good idea, or that it will happen, because it seems highly unlikely from GGG's perspective.
But, even if it’s not GGG, Hopkins will get his swan-song fight next year. It’ll come against a recognizable name, possibly for a world title, and he’ll win.
That’s how the story should end for one of boxing’s all-time greats.
The Big Boys Will Matter Again
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Don’t look now, but the heavyweight division is relevant again.
Undisputed champion Wladimir Klitschko is back on HBO with two more fights on a three-fight deal signed last year, and he’ll be fighting in the United States on April 25 for the first time since taking the WBO title from Sultan Ibragimov in 2008.
Klitschko is likely to defend his WBA/WBO/IBF and The Ring Magazine Heavyweight Championships against undefeated American Bryant Jennings at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York.
But, for the first time in a long while, Wlad isn’t the only heavyweight worth discussing.
Bermane Stiverne will defend his WBC Heavyweight Championship on Jan. 17 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas against undefeated power puncher Deontay Wilder.
Stiverne made a statement by twice dominating Chris Arreola, and Wilder has literally knocked out every single guy to step in with him.
Whether either guy can mount a legitimate challenge to Klitschko’s supremacy remains to be seen, but that fight, combined with the return of the heavyweight champ to American shores, will make the big men matter once more in 2015.
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