Jones vs. Cormier: A Complete Guide to Full UFC 182 Fight Card
When was the last time a main event was this hotly anticipated? Seriously, I'm asking.
Arguably, not since Anderson Silva and Chris Weidman were involved have fans been in such a fervor. And before that? Your guess is as good as mine.
The point is that there's a lot of anticipation, a lot of heat and a lot of athletic intrigue surrounding Jon Jones' light heavyweight title defense against Olympic wrestler Daniel Cormier, which goes down Saturday at UFC 182.
These two are a combined 35-1 as pro fighters. Jones has defended his title seven consecutive times. Cormier has never been defeated, or even threatened. Jones is as innovative as he is physically gifted, as enigmatic as he is willful. Cormier is as strong as he is engaging, as finely honed as he is physically, I don't know, jolly-looking.
And Cormier, with his powerful game, could be the man to finally defeat Jones fair and square.
Will he do it? I have a prediction for you. In fact, I have predictions for each of the 11 bouts on this UFC 182 card, which contains several interesting fights in addition to this titanic main event.
Read on for these picks as well as information capsules, analysis and viewing coordinates. Please enjoy.
Alexis Dufresne vs. Marion Reneau
1 of 11
Division: Women's bantamweight
Records: Alexis Dufresne (5-1), Marion Reneau (4-1)
See it on: UFC Fight Pass (subscription required)
Dufresne surely wishes her UFC debut had gone differently. A charismatic and accomplished ground fighter, Dufresne missed weight by eight pounds, then kept Sarah Moras on her back for most of that fight but looked listless in the process and ultimately dropped a decision.
Dufresne was uncharacteristically conservative there; it was not only her first loss, but the first time she hadn't finished her opponent in the first round. The 24-year-old should rediscover that killer instinct against the 37-year-old Reneau; she probably has to if she wants to continue at this level of the sport.
Prediction: Dufresne, submission, Rd. 2
Omari Akhmedov vs. Mats Nilsson
2 of 11Division: Welterweight
Records: Omari Akhmedov (13-2), Mats Nilsson (11-3-1)
See it on: UFC Fight Pass (subscription required)
The latest Dagestani prospect to enter the UFC hit a snag in March. That snag's name was Gunnar Nelson.
Akhmedov, a well-rounded, 27-year-old Sambo master, should have what it takes to best another Northern European standout in Sweden's Nilsson, an excellent grappler in his own right but lacking the stand-up chops to hang with Akhmedov.
This is Nilsson's welterweight debut, but he should still cede power and athleticism to Akhmedov.
Prediction: Akhmedov, TKO, Rd. 2
Evan Dunham vs. Rodrigo Damm
3 of 11
Division: Lightweight
Records: Evan Dunham (14-6), Rodrigo Damm (12-8)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
If this is not a loser-leaves-town match, then that phrase definitely doesn't mean what I think it means.
Damm has dropped two straight; Dunham three. Despite owning the longer losing streak, Dunham might be on slightly safer ground given his crowd-pleasing style and the higher level of competition he has faced.
Damm is good but not dynamic. You have to think the UFC sees these angles and is hoping Dunham helps them dispatch two birds with one stone. The more exciting fighter is also the better fighter here, and that fighter will win.
Prediction: Dunham, unanimous decision
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Shawn Jordan vs. Jared Cannonier
4 of 11
Division: Heavyweight
Records: Shawn Jordan (16-6), Jared Cannonier (7-0)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
I like to think I stay up on the MMA prospect scene. But I must admit it: Before this fight, I had never heard of Jared Cannonier. But I will say that when you have a win over King of the Cage legend Tony "Kryptonite" Lopez on your record, you have my attention, somewhat.
Cannonier will be a good foil for Jordan in that it seems like he'll want to reel around and slug it out in there. That's what Jordan likes to do, though he does not do it with consistent success. All five of his most recent fights were knockouts but only three were wins for Jordan.
This one could probably go either way, but give me the veteran from Jackson's MMA over the unknown from Anchorage, Alaska.
Prediction: Jordan, TKO, Rd. 2
Marcus Brimage vs. Cody Garbrandt
5 of 11
Division: Bantamweight
Records: Marcus Brimage (7-3), Cody Garbrandt (5-0)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
It would be easy to write off the promotional newcomer in this one. That would be a little premature. Garbrandt is one of the brightest prospects going at 135 pounds, and he's coming into the Octagon out of a little outfit known as Team Alpha Male. Maybe you've heard of it, bro.
He doesn't perfectly fit the Alpha Male stereotype, though. His ground game is solid but not the automatic weapon we're used to seeing in fighters from Sacramento's lighter-weight fighter mecca. He's more of a kickboxer, blending great movement and power in the cage, as evidenced by the fact that all five of his pro wins came by the strike.
On the minus side, his nickname is "No Love." If he didn't expressly clear that with Rich Clementi then, well, that's a big problem. A big, big problem.
Brimage hasn't been amazing of late, going 1-2 over the past two injury-hampered years. The likable American Top Teamer has to hope he can make it two in a row down in the bantamweight division, where he dropped anchor last July while searching for a career jump start.
Both of these guys are strikers first and foremost. Garbrandt might have a little more ability (and willingness) to add grappling to the mix, but this one should go to Brimage, whose aggression and pace will overwhelm the young buck.
Prediction: Brimage, unanimous decision
Danny Castillo vs. Paul Felder
6 of 11
Division: Lightweight
Records: Danny Castillo (17-7), Paul Felder (9-0)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
Lots of grizzled rank-and-file veterans on this undercard here, and none of them are any rank-and-filer than Danny Castillo.
I mean that as a compliment. It's not easy to stick around the UFC for 11 fights and nearly four years, as Castillo has. He does it by winning the fights he's supposed to win.
This qualifies as that. Felder should be commended for stepping in on less than a month's notice, but he's a big step down from Castillo's original foe (some guy named Rustam Khabilov, who was scratched for visa issues).
Castillo realizes he probably needs a finish, not just a win, if he wants to convert this into a ladder-climbing situation. Felder isn't completely inert, as he has one win in the UFC already. But here's guessing Castillo has a big wrestling advantage and significant edges everywhere else.
Prediction: Castillo, TKO, Rd. 2
Hector Lombard vs. Josh Burkman
7 of 11
Division: Welterweight
Records: Hector Lombard (34-4-1), Josh Burkman (27-10)
See it on: Pay-per-view
Lombard is a very frightening welterweight. As in a "he's really going to really hurt someone" sort of frightening. He's like Rousimar Palhares, except with right hooks instead of heel hooks and a better overall game and the fact that he knocked Palhares the freakity freak out when they actually fought each other.
I want to call the upset for Burkman, an excellent fighter and a great story. But the former WSOF champ, who is returning to the UFC after a six-year absence, is in grave danger here.
He won't be able to get Lombard to the ground—it's tough to do that against a world-class judo player—and won't be able to damage Lombard in the pocket or keep him at range. Lombard should continue his steamroll up the welterweight ranks. Be afraid.
Prediction: Lombard, TKO, Rd. 1
Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Louis Gaudinot
8 of 11
Division: Flyweight
Records: Kyoji Horiguchi (14-1), Louis Gaudinot (6-3)
See it on: Pay-per-view
If Horiguchi really is destined to become The Savior Of Japanese MMA, he'll need to get past Gaudinot Saturday night.
I love Horiguchi and his high-octane karate style. I love that he can skate in from long distance with "no movement," strike hard and fast and retreat before the opponent knows what hit him. He attacks with kicks and punches and gets the knockout more often than not.
Gaudinot seems like a ready-made dance partner, also bringing a karate background (though a less comprehensive one) and more than his share of durability. On the other hand, de doesn't offer much in the way of a takedown threat to the wide-based Horiguchi and doesn't seem to be on Horiguchi's stand-up level. He's also been out of action for almost a full year. So, yeah.
Prediction: Horiguchi, TKO, Rd. 2
Brad Tavares vs. Nate Marquardt
9 of 11
Division: Middleweight
Records: Brad Tavares (12-3), Nate Marquardt (33-13-2)
See it on: Pay-per-view
Marquardt looked plenty comfortable when he returned to middleweight (and dispatched James Te Huna) last June.
Tavares has been a respectable, meat-and-potatoes type of UFC competitor for quite a while now, with some solid power boxing and very good athleticism. But his ceiling was rudely exposed in 2014, when he lost successive matches to Yoel Romero and Tim Boetsch, two of the better 185-pounders out there.
Marquardt is right in that league and should be able to get Tavares to the ground and work his submission game or carve up Tavares with kicks.
Prediction: Marquardt, unanimous decision
Donald Cerrone vs. Myles Jury
10 of 11
Division: Lightweight
Records: Donald Cerrone (25-6), Myles Jury (15-0)
See it on: Pay-per-view
I may regret this, but here we go. Going into uncomfortable places is the only way we can experience new things in life.
I'm going to shut my eyes, bite my lip and pick Jury for the upset here. The guy is just so freaking good; I've been pumping him up for a while now. What would it say about me if I picked against him in this fight? I'm not that kind of man.
Cerrone is one tough customer, though. No one needs that pointed out, especially not after what just happened in 2014, when he mowed down everyone in his path and notched some Fighter of the Year nominations in the process. He's just a whirling muay thai dervish, and it seems hard to stop him.
But I think we could be looking back on Jury in two years with a similar sort of perception. Jury is hard to predict, he is well rounded, he is extremely elusive, he is very active, and he is smart.
Cerrone will probably do what he always does, which is use aggression and cardio in an effort to backpedal and then finish off his opponent. But I don't think it will work on Jury. I also think Jury might mix in a takedown. True, he hasn't faced anyone on Cerrone's level, but you have to start somewhere. Jury starts here. Sound the alarms.
Prediction: Jury, unanimous decision
Jon Jones vs. Daniel Cormier
11 of 11
Division: Light Heavyweight (for UFC light heavyweight championship)
Records: Jon Jones (20-1), Daniel Cormier (15-0)
See it on: Pay-per-view
I already covered the back story in the intro. You may also have read about it on a website or two or seen a couple of interviews.
So let me now dive right into the fight itself. Here's what it comes down to: whether Cormier can get inside and get the paws on Jones, clinch him up and hold onto him, thus neutralizing all that height and reach and spinning and brilliance.
Can Cormier do it? Sure he can. He has never failed to do so before.
If he can accomplish it against Jones, the fight will take on the feel of a bull-riding event. And that's the thing: How long can Cormier use his strength and reflexes to pin Jones against the fence or canvas before Jones finally explodes out? One round? Three rounds?
I don't think "indefinitely" is possible. But if Cormier can do it for three rounds, he would, theoretically, win the title. That's his path to victory.
It's his only path to victory, though. Jones can wrestle, he can box, he can kick box, he is outstanding in the clinch, and he can submit guys. It's true that Jones has never faced a wrestler of Cormier's caliber, but when did Cormier face a striker on par with Jones? The answer is never. The answer is always never, unless you've previously fought Jon Jones.
Cormier can strike, but I don't think he has a great chance against Jones in the stand-up phase. Jones, meanwhile, has both a good ground game and the law of averages on his side. Even if everything works out perfectly for Cormier, he still has the clock and Jones' pure athleticism working against him. In this fight as in all fights, time is on Jones' side.
Prediction: Jones, unanimous decision
Scott Harris writes about the serious and less-serious aspects of MMA for Bleacher Report. For more stuff like this, feel free to follow Scott on Twitter.
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